In the next three years, people aged over 60 in Thailand will account for 13.8 million, or 20% of the population. This means in a group of five, there will be one elderly person. In demographic science, a country where 20% of its people are aged 60 years old or higher is categorised as an ageing society.
The problem is aggravated as a result of a low birth rate that causes the number of people of working age to drop sharply.
In fact, demographic scientists have warned us for so long about such a development but the state is still sluggish, and puts efforts into immediate problems like economic hardship and the cost of living, without any solid plans to handle an ageing society efficiently.
Wichit Chantanusornsiri is a senior economics reporter, Bangkok Post.
It's unfortunate that such a crucial problem like the ageing society has been treated as a low priority by all governments. A lack of proactive plans means a large number of old people live in poverty, have to depend on others with no dignity.
Demographic studies suggested that in 2000 the country had 6.2 million people aged 60 years old and higher or 10% of the total population. In 2017 this group increased to 11.7 million or 16.9%, and in 2021 the country will become a fully ageing society when 20% of the population or 13.8 million fall into this bracket. The number will soar to 20.9 million or 30% in 2035 which means one in every three people will be an old person.
In traditional society where we had extensive families with parents living with their children, this problem was not very serious. But now young people tend to live on their own, and fewer and fewer old people live with their children. It was found that in 1986, 76.9% of old people lived with their children, and the percentage dropped to 54.7% in 2011. Old people living on their own or with their partners increased from 11.1 % in 1986 to 27.8% in 2011.
More importantly, studies suggested that the majority of old people have low savings and assets. Only 25% of old people have savings, including value of other assets like a house, surpassing one million baht. The amount will be much lower if we deduct the asset value.
The remaining ageing population, or around 75%, have less than one million baht in savings. Worse, 16.3% of the ageing population have no savings or houses of their own.
The prospects look grim, if we take into account their health care. The number of old people confined to wheelchairs or their beds doubled, from 3.7% in 2011 to 6.3% in 2016.
Yet, the country has shown poor planning and performance in tackling an ageing society. Those aged 60-69 are allocated 600-baht a month, while 70-79 year olds and 80-89 years olds, get 700 and 800 baht a month respectively. Those exceeding 90 get 1,000 baht a month.
In this 2016 photo taken during a march on Ratchadamnoen Avenue, an elderly demonstrator holds a placard calling the state to put in place national pension scheme. (Photo by Thiti Wannamontha)
The country is trying to upgrade the provident fund law which will make the fund mandatory, not voluntary as in the past.
Now the legislation is being vetted by the Council of State. Even if it's successful, the fund will benefit those who will be old in the next 20-30 years, not the current ageing population.
It's necessary for the government to put the issue on the national agenda and it must be proactive, preparing for problems that may come up in the future.
The budget for an old people's welfare scheme is high. Elderly people's pensions are no less than 60-70 billion baht a year, excluding the additional payment the government contributes to the social security fund which means the total amount for old people welfare schemes comes to about 100 billion baht.
If we don't come up with measures to handle an ageing society, problems will explode, as the number of old people climbs steadily, resulting in an increase in healthcare costs for this group of people.
That is a heavy burden for the state. We would not want to see this group of people, confined to wheelchairs, stage protests for better welfare.
We need a better plan to deal with the problem, especially on how to implement new fiscal measures so the government has enough money for them.
Look at the Japanese government which decided to increase value-added tax (VAT) by another 3% so it has extra money to take care of old people.
For Thailand, we have to think about new taxes, like land and property taxes or a 1-2% VAT increase, so we have more money for this purpose. If so, those who oppose such measures may change their mind as they too will be old one day.
We still have time to sort out this problem, but we need to do it seriously, or the problem may snowball into a crisis. Thailand will not be a livable place if we allow old people to live without dignity.