Thaksin holds out a distant hope

Thaksin holds out a distant hope

Thaksin Shinawatra, working hard to continue to be a thorn in the side of the prime minister and NCPO, is seen with his twin granddaughters during a visit to England in May. (FB/Ingshinawatra)
Thaksin Shinawatra, working hard to continue to be a thorn in the side of the prime minister and NCPO, is seen with his twin granddaughters during a visit to England in May. (FB/Ingshinawatra)

Deposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is again provoking the Prayut Chan-o-cha government and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) by rousing opposition among his supporters at home ahead of Thailand's first election in five years timed for early next year.

Thaksin, who has been living in self exile for a decade to escape his two–year jail sentence for abuse of power while in office, on Aug 9 met a group of former MPs and politicians from the Pheu Thai Party and his supporters at a hotel in Hong Kong. There, they celebrated a belated 69th birthday party for Thaksin who was born on July 26.

Anucha Charoenpo is news editor, Bangkok Post.

Thaksin was with his younger sister, fellow ex-PM Yingluck Shinawatra, who also escaped five years in jail for negligence in overseeing a failed rice subsidy scheme. Both claim they are victims of "unfair justice".

During the birthday party, Thaksin told the ex-MPs and his proponents that he pledged to keep on battling for Thailand's democracy. He said loss would result from only two cases: death, or surrender. The most important war is that for democracy.

Thaksin said he wanted to see Thailand prosper again. He said Thais used to live with equal rights, dignity and freedom under a democratic government.

His remarks raise certain questions. How will a fugitive like Thaksin keep fighting for democracy? What is the prime reason for his comments?

What does he want from the Pheu Thai ex-MPs? And how can he assure them he will keep his word?

I remember Thaksin, a doctoral graduate in criminology at Sam Houston State University, once told his red-shirt supporters via live video on Facebook that he would return to Thailand and walk alongside his people if just one red–shirt supporter was injured during protests to demand then prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva step down. Of course, he has yet to return, despite his promise.

But no matter what his reasons are, Thaksin remains consistent in wanting to send political signals to challenge the government and the NCPO led by Gen Prayut to prepare for a new round of political conflict.

The Pheu Thai Party is still led from behind the scenes by Thaksin. Another player on the political scene these days is the Sam Mitr (Three Allies) group led by former industry minister Somsak Thepsuthin, former transport minister Suriya Jungrungreangkij and (it is understood) Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.

Yet another player is the right-leaning Action Coalition of Thailand Party (ACT) led by MR Chatumongol Sonakul with Suthep Thaugsuban believed to be pulling the strings.

The Pheu Thai Party, of course, is on the opposite side from the government and Gen Prayut. It continues to criticise other parties and those who back Gen Prayut to take on the job of outsider prime minister after the next election.

Some former MPs of the Pheu Thai Party are actively involved in efforts in calling for the government and the NCPO to revoke the ban on political activity as soon as possible as they demand a "level playing field" for all parties. They ask why the government and the NCPO have turned a blind eye to some members of the Sam Mitr group touring the country to siphon ex-MPs from the Pheu Thai Party, especially, in the northeastern provinces.

Worse, these former MPs have also accused the PM of exploiting a series of mobile cabinet meetings to various parts of the country to canvass support for a new party that may support him and the regime after the poll.

The PM dismisses the allegations as groundless. I think most people who have monitored the political situation since he took office four years ago will find his remarks had to believe. We know what you are doing.

As for the Sam Mitr group which is thought likely to join Phalang Pracharat, a military-backed party, and the ACT, the two groups are likely to throw their support behind Gen Prayut becoming a so-called outsider prime minister.

I am certain they will form a coalition government and will vote for Gen Prayut as the next prime minister after the next poll.

Given the above, I believe Pheu Thai will have a tougher time winning the next election. As the junta government and the NCPO hold all the aces, a mixture of a democratic and military government looks likely after the poll next year.

Anucha Charoenpo

News Editor

Anucha Charoenpo is news editor at the Bangkok Post.

Email : anuchac@bangkokpost.co.th

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