Poll delay chatter rekindled

There will be much action on the electoral front until at least February, when the next general election is tentatively due, but the exact date of the poll remains a guessing game.

Yet as political watchers debate the chances of the election being held on Feb 24, as suggested by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his deputy, Wissanu Krea-ngam, less attention is being paid to whether the election of senators will also be delayed.

Concern is growing that the senators may be picked before a new batch of MPs. And the date of the former will depend on how quickly the Election Commission (EC) is able to appoint all 616 election inspectors.

The senators must all be chosen at least 15 days before the general election is held, as enshrined in the constitution.

The inspectors are new to the EC. Having been introduced under the current charter, they will replace provincial election directors. Their powers may also be augmented, allowing them to award rulings on certain complaints related to the election.

The inspectors will need to work in sync with the electoral system, which is also new and complicated. A political source, who declined to be named, said the inspectors will face their first real test in organising elections for 50 of the 250 senators. This is expected to happen in the last few months of the year.

The remaining senators will be hand-picked by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) with the exception of several seats, which are reserved for the leaders of the three armed forces.

This process, dominated by the NCPO, will only happen one time. Future senators will be chosen according to a different method under the supervision of the EC. And there will be 200 senators instead of 250. However, at least one part of the process will not change: Senate candidates will still be able to vote from among their own professional and social ranks.

In the upcoming round, poll inspectors will be busy overseeing the election of senators from intra-group candidates nationwide. Which group each candidate belongs to will be decided on the basis of their profession and social grouping.

Each province will have between five and eight poll inspectors. The 616 named by the previous batch of election commissioners will have to wait before they can start working, however.

This is because, before their appointments can be endorsed, the general public must be granted the opportunity to do their own "due diligence" on their backgrounds, from their academic credentials to their track records at work.

This could stall the selection of senators as, technically speaking, the poll inspectors should hit the ground running at the same time as they do, according to the source.

Now 23 of the inspector-appointees from 10 provinces are effectively in limbo after members of the public questioned whether they were suitable candidates to regulate elections.

EC secretary-general Jarungvith Phumma said this week the 23 appointees represent Nakhon Pathom, Satun, Chumphon, Khon Kaen, Nong Bua Lam Phu, Udon Thani, Nakhon Ratchasima, Mudahan, Si Sa Ket and Phrae.

The complaints against them were received during a 10-day period when the names of all the appointees were pinned on notice boards for everyone to see. Most of the complaints targeted their qualifications and past transgressions.

Asked whether all of the inspectors should be officially appointed simultaneously, Mr Jarungvith said that would not be necessary as those without any question marks hanging over their names could be put up for endorsement first.

Regardless of this, the source said they should all start working at the same time. Any who fail to clear their name in time will have to be replaced, which would further draw out the process and possibly cause delays.

The source said the intra-group selection of senators represents new territory, or uncharted waters, for the poll inspectors, who will also need to make sure they are au fait with the new rules.

Muslims join pro-Prayut camp

A new political party comprising Muslim politicians from the Wadah faction is believed to be among the newly formed parties being courted to support Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha should be bid to reclaim the premiership after the general election tentatively set for Feb 24.

After breaking away from Pheu Thai, the Wadah faction of influential Muslim politicians in the deep South has established the Prachachart Party.

Political pundits believe it will be persuaded to join other pro-Prayut parties to form a coalition government after the next election.

Parties in the pro-Prayut camp include the Phalang Pracharat Party and the Action Coalition for Thailand Party (ACT), which is backed by veteran politician and former protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban.

Phalang Pracharat is believed to have teamed up with the Sam Mitr group, seen as the regime's recruiting arm. The group, also known as the "Three Allies", is trying to persuade several former MPs to defect from their parties and join Phalang Pracharat, according to observers.

The Wadah faction was co-founded by veteran Pattani politicians Den Tomeena and Wan Muhamad Nor Matha.

At its peak, it had nine MPs in the deep South. The faction teamed up with the Democrat Party, and then the New Aspiration Party led by Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyuth, before migrating to the now-dissolved Thai Rak Thai in 2002.

Mr Wan Nor, the leader of the Wadah group, was appointed interior minister during the former Thaksin Shinawatra administration.

After a coup that overthrew the Thaksin government in 2006, Thai Rak Thai was dissolved by a constitutional tribunal for violating an electoral law during that year's poll.

The party's 111 members, including Mr Wan Nor, were banned from participating in politics for five years. Some later moved to Pheu Thai, which was a reincarnation of Thai Rak Thai.

In the 2011 general election, the Wadah faction was wiped out in the three southernmost provinces in what represented a shock setback for members and supporters of the group, which was once hugely popular in the Muslim-dominated provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat.

Areepen Uttarasin, a leading member of the group and co-founder of the Prachachart Party, said the new party will hold a general assembly at the Prince of Songkla University's Pattani campus on Sept 1. That is the date the regime is expected to ease a longheld ban on political activities so the parties can prepare for the election.

The meeting will select party executives and Mr Wan Nor, 73, is expected to be named the party's first leader. Pol Col Tawee Sodsong, former chief of the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre, is tipped to become the party's secretary-general, according to Mr Areepen.

In the next election, the party aims to win 10-15 House seats from the southern region, which is currently dominated by the Democrat Party, Mr Areepen said.

One of the party's flagship campaign policies is to restore peace in the strife-torn deep South, Mr Areepen said, adding Pol Col Tawee once played a leading role in peace talks with southern insurgents during the Yingluck Shinawatra administration.

Rivals vie for PM's blessing

Political pundits should know by now that the Sam Mitr (Three Allies) are the biggest name in the Thai political arena these days.

Led by political bigwigs such as former transport minister Suriya Jungrungreangkij and former industry minister Somsak Thepsuthin, the political group has been showering support on the military regime and it stands ready to back Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's return to power as premier after the next general election, should he choose to do so.

The group has reportedly thrown Pheu Thai off balance as well as one of the party's key allies, the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). Its emergence comes with reports of the former ruling party bleeding former MPs and key red-shirt members who have decided to switch allegiances.

The political group has also engaged in controversial activities such as travelling to various provinces to hear the plight of local people and relay their demands to the government.

Critics have cried foul over the group's engagements. Its members face no restrictions whereas political parties are being kept on a tight leash by a longheld ban on them engaging in political activities. The critics are concerned that any unfair advantage given to a certain group may affect the outcome of the general election early next year.

Veteran politician Chalerm Ubumrung does not share such concerns. In his opinion, the Sam Mitr group is overrated. He also blames the media for "puffing up" the group's image and presenting it as being more powerful than it probably is.

According to the Pheu Thai maverick, it is one thing to draw politicians away from political parties, but winning an election is an entirely different kettle of fish. He has also brushed aside concerns about the Sam Mitr having an early start on what some observers insisted was its election campaign. He described such concerns as "absurd".

Sam Mitr has lured dozens of politicians into its fold but none of them are "A-listers", he said. They are more suited to local elections, such as those pertaining to tambon administrative organisations, than national polls, he added.

Mr Chalerm, a self-confessed wine connoisseur, has likened those who join Sam Mitr to cheap wine by dubbing them "Wine Nam Sam".

He said the Pheu Thai still has a strong "brand" and is expected to win a landslide victory in the upcoming poll. He believes it could grab more than 250 House seats, a claim pundits say must be taken with a handful of salt as the recently rewritten election rules make a victory of this scale very unlikely.

"Believe me, the Sam Mitr, whatever party it belongs to, will lose and Pheu Thai will prevail," Mr Chalerm said.

Other political observers agree with his criticism of the group, which appears to have shifted down a gear after a number of key government figures began implicitly distancing themselves from it.

Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, seen as the de facto leader of the pro-military Phalang Pracharat Party, does not want any cabinet ministers to give the impression they are associated with the group, according to political pundits.

At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak has rejected speculation that he is the "third" pillar of the Sam Mitr's three allies.

According to political sources, Sam Mitr is not yet in the same league as the Phalang Pracharat Party, which some see as a vehicle to help secure Gen Prayut's comeback after the poll early next year.

Some have suggested the regime wants to ensure the new party, which has yet to be endorsed by the Election Commission, maintains a fresh image unsoiled by its association with any politicians who may have a less than pristine reputation.