Could Saint Prayut accept 'mortal life'?

Could Saint Prayut accept 'mortal life'?

Gen Prayut and his military regime have put in their labour for four years, and put nefarious plans in place for the next 20. (Bangkok Post file photo)
Gen Prayut and his military regime have put in their labour for four years, and put nefarious plans in place for the next 20. (Bangkok Post file photo)

September has arrived but Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha is still holding his cards close to his chest regarding his political future, despite the majority of political pundits believing they already know the answer.

As Thailand heads to a general election early next year, who would assume the PM would not seek a second term?

Gen Prayut has three options. First, he could step down and let electoral democracy run its course. Second, he could enter politics by allowing a political party to nominate him as its candidate for the premiership. Third, he could wait until there is a deadlock in parliament and members nominate him as an outsider PM.

Although quitting remains an option, it is the least sensible of the three. Whether Gen Prayut and his military regime are doing the right thing or not, they have put in their labour for four years. They have also put nefarious plans in place for the next 20 years. There is no reason why they should want to walk away now.

As a leader, Gen Prayut has not scored a jackpot. The government's performance over the past four years has been steady, but not spectacular. Some people would even say it has failed to make the economy better.

Gen Prayut may be popular but he has not attained the kind of statesman-like status that would lift him above all other politicians. He has not unified the country, and there are still elements in society that are decidedly against him and the regime.

Some political parties have already campaigned that they would, if elected, revoke the regime-sponsored constitution, cancel the 20-year reform plan, and even sell some as-yet still-undelivered submarines.

In short, Gen Prayut and his regime have not managed to build a legacy solid enough to ensure a graceful exit and a guarantee against other parties exacting their revenge later. If he were to quit now, he would see everything that he has worked for fall apart. He could even face some form of retaliation.

The premier does not always make smart political decisions. But he would not be so imprudent as to walk away now.

The two remaining options are not risk-free, either.

If Gen Prayut is eyeing a second term, the first option would seem safer. He could allow a political party to name him as one of its three candidates for the premiership. The party would need to win at least 25 party-list members of parliament for its nominees for prime minister to be considered. At least 50 MPs must support each nomination. The nominee who wins a majority vote will become the next prime minister.

The downside of Gen Prayut potentially entering politics by attaching himself to a certain party is that he would essentially be stepping down from the high altar of peacemaker to join the common fray as just another "politician".

If that were to happen, the demigod would become a mere mortal. Once Gen Prayut stops being the umpire, and steps into the ring as a contestant, all bets are off. He would have to leave behind all of his power and privilege as the head of government and National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to give the appearance of the election being free and fair. He would surely come under attack by anti-coup parties, especially the front-runner Pheu Thai (the government of which Gen Prayut toppled). The party has every reason to tear him to pieces.

Gen Prayut may be adept as a dictator, but the campaign trail is Pheu Thai's specialty. An election has always been a cruel pitch. As a temperamental man with anger management issues, he would not have a competitive edge once the playing field becomes level.

The second road to the premiership would offer Gen Prayut some insulation against political mudslinging, but it is more risky logistically.

To preserve his "holier-than-thou" image, Gen Prayut could opt to stay away from real politics while maintaining his role as an observer for now. If the parties that support him win enough seats in the poll there could be a deadlock that leads to his nomination as an outsider PM.

That's where Gen Prayut could float down from above and agree to help "save" the country again by accepting the position. This would enhance his image as a "saviour" while preventing him from meddling with politicians he has branded as being corrupt.

But winning enough seats to produce a deadlock may not be easy. Moreover, being an outsider premier is only slightly better than having yourself installed via a coup.

To run or not to run, that is not the question. The question is, which way?

Atiya Achakulwisut

Columnist for the Bangkok Post

Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist for the Bangkok Post.

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