Myanmar's peace process is finely balanced, after the latest round of talks failed to produce anything of substance. Sitting comfortably and very relaxed, the chairman of the Myanmar ethnic rebel group, the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Yawd Serk was happy to offer his insights into the recent summit between the government and the leaders of the ethnic groups, which have signed the national ceasefire agreement (NCA). Reflecting on the meeting he simply said "very tense". The other ethnic leaders in attendance had a similar opinion: "high drama" according to one, on condition of anonymity.
Although the conference was called amid high hopes of a breakthrough on the stalled peace process, it degenerated into a shadow boxing session between Yawd Serk and the top general in the Myanmar army, or the Tatmadaw. This sparring session has left the stalled peace process precariously poised. All hopes now are pinned on a meeting of the ethnic groups early next month to decide on ways to break the current deadlock.
Larry Jagan is a Myanmar specialist and former BBC World Service news editor for the region.
The RCSS is one of the bigger and more important groups that signed the NCA in October 2015, which has formed the framework for thecontinued peace negotiations since then. This latest meeting held in the capital Naypyidaw last week, on the third anniversary of the pact -- signed by some of the ethnic rebel groups involved in the talks with the government over the past seven years -- had been heralded as a significant moment in the peace process.
It was the first time the ethnic leaders had sat down with the country's civilian leader, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, and Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing. Held behind closed doors -- intended to simulate the atmosphere of a retreat-style meeting -- it was meant to be a free flowing dialogue, with no set interventions, and no restrictions on topics that could be raised for discussion.
But the army chief pre-empted this plan when he set the tone for the meeting with a long, aggressive opening speech, especially singling out the RCSS for attack. He accused them of rising from drug antecedents, being opportunistic and exploiting the ceasefire to recruit and train troops, and annex increased territory. During the discussions the deputy commander-in-chief even warned the RCSS that if they did not behave they would be crushed.
"Min Aung Hlaing is neither honest, sincere nor flexible," Yawk Serk told the Bangkok Post in an exclusive interview. He set the tone from the start, one that was inappropriate and not conducive to dialogue, leaving no opportunity for a meeting of minds, he complained. For the peace process to move forward, these exchanges cannot dwell on the past, he mused. "We need to find areas where we can cooperate and agree, and work to find mutually acceptable compromises."
During his opening gambit, the army commander raised two contentious areas -- that have long been the stumbling block to a genuine peace settlement -- which both sides have been trying to avoid tackling at this stage of the talks. These issues are the creation of a Federal army and the ethnic groups' right to secede from the Union of Myanmar -- a clause that was in the original Panglong agreement negotiated by General Aung San in 1947, that sets out the key areas that need to be resolved, before a lasting peace and reconciliation can be achieved.
The ethnic group's response was unequivocal: before the issue of the army was discussed, there had to be a clear delineation of the proposed structure of the Federal army. "How can we comment without first knowing the details of what's envisaged," said Yawk Serk. "All we did was seek clarity on the structure, but the army refused to play ball," he added.
But the structure of the federal army will remain a key sticking point in future. For Yawk Serk the idea that their armies should be integrated into the army as part of the Border Guard Force like some ethnic armies already -- an auxiliary militia under the authority of the Tatmadaw, and answering to the commander-in-chief -- is anathema. "We simply cannot accept that," he insisted.
During the meeting, Ms Suu Kyi tried to break the deadlock by suggesting it should be referred to the national parliament to consider and decide, a notion neither the army nor the ethnic groups found acceptable.
For ethnic rebel groups -- none of which are represented in parliament -- this was tantamount to bypassing them and cutting them out of future discussions. For the army, this was also totally unacceptable, as the deputy commander-in-chief Soe Win simply demanded an end to the discussion, insisting that internal military matters was no one else's job but that of the army itself.
The issue of inserting a clause prohibiting future secession, proved even more contentious. But the army continues to insist on it, despite the fact that in the NCA -- the basis of the continued peace talks -- includes a clause, which commits the signatures to accept the non-disintegration of the Union. This was the compromise agreed during the earlier phase of talks to allow the process to proceed to political dialogue, which would then agree the principles upon which to base a new constitution.
"Secession would no longer be an issue if there is a real coming together, and a Federal State agreed that guarantees everyone's rights," said Yawk Serk. "In this case there would be no need to secede." In the forthcoming meeting -- a follow up by the ethnic leaders -- it is hoped that the group will accept the idea of including a clause based on "internal self-determination", which other key ethnic leaders in the group believe could be a "game-changer" and supersede the need for a "non-secession" clause.
But Min Aung Hlaing clearly wanted to provoke the ethnic leaders and tried to sow dissension between them, according the RCSS leader: a view that was commonly shared amongst all the ethnic leaders there. His position was clear and unequivocal, according to the ethnic leaders who were in the room.
"He was not there to solve problems, but create more problems, by creating tension between one and other," said Yawk Serk. Secession is not part of the NCA, he said so should not have been raised.
Obviously Min Aung Hlaing had an ulterior motive in so doing, according most of the ethnic leaders at the meeting.
And it may also have been to try to snooker the country's civilian leader, said another ethnic leader. Ms Suu Kyi confided to Yawk Serk that she was indifferent to the inclusion of secession clause, during the private dinner on the first evening.
In stark contrast, Yawd Serk said, Ms Suu Kyi was always open and easy to talk to. Her position too is clear. She won the elections, has moral authority, but is hemmed by the military, and cannot do her job, reflected Yawk Serk.
But she is a consummate politician, "engaging, generous, compromising, considerate and deferential". She makes people feel comfortable, but she sticks to her beliefs and principles.
The problem is the army: they are wedded to the 2008 constitution, which has to change if there is to be a political settlement that paves the way for lasting peace, according to several ethnic leaders at the meeting. "The army insists on non-secession to protect his power," said Yawk Serk. They need the clause, because they do not want the civilian government to succeed. Min Aung Hlaing is crazed with power.
"We will continue to strive to achieve peace within the structure of the NCA," said the RCSS chairman. After all it was widely agreed during the national dialogue, which included political parties and representatives of civil society, following the signing of the NCA three years ago.
But the army keeps raising their main points: the Tatmadaw's six principles (which includes non-secession); and then they accuse us of unlawful actions, encroaching on territory, whereas the NCA does not include any lines of demarcation, only the location of the groups' respective headquarters.
But if the army continues to close the door on the NCA -- they will unleash a renewed civil war.
"If the army remains obstructionist, we will have no alternative but to go back to armed struggle; and this time we'll take the fight to the cities, and not remain in the jungle," warned Yawk Serk.