Suthep marching in circles

Suthep marching in circles

ACT co-founder and ex-PDRC protest leader may struggle to rekindle same passion - Fears circulate that an Abhisit victory will prevent Democrats joining a coalition govt - Oldest party's three-way leadership race looks like turning into a two-horse finish

Suthep Thaugsuban is thought to have got off on the wrong foot with his “homage to the nation” walk that ended this week.

The decision by the co-founder of the Action Coalition for Thailand Party (ACT) to hit the streets again was reminiscent of the height of the mass protests in 2014 by the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), which Mr Suthep led.

For a period of time during the protests, which have gone down in history as the chief catalyst in sparking the overthrow of the Pheu Thai-led government by the coup-makers in May of that year, Mr Suthep was at the forefront of the anti-government movement that featured hundreds of thousands of people at one point.

Political experts say the only common link between this latest walk and the events four years ago was that Mr Suthep was in charge. In terms of who accompanied him, however, the events are world’s apart. The same holds true for their stated aims, which helps to explain both the size of the respective crowds that attended and the different atmospheres under which they were held.

Four years ago, the protests had a magnetic effect on supporters, who turned out in droves whenever Mr Suthep scheduled marches heading to different state agencies in symbolic denunciation of the Yingluck Shinawatra administration for remaining in office despite having lost its legitimacy.

This accusation harked back to the days when the government supported a blanket amnesty bill that was allegedly aimed at benefiting Yingluck’s brother, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thaksin fled the country before the Supreme Court jailed him for two years in absentia over the bitterly controversial Ratchadaphisek land deal, which was clinched when he was prime minister and was said to have unfairly favoured his former wife.

Aside from whistle-carrying supporters, many former Democrat Party members were among the front-row marchers who accompanied Mr Suthep in 2014. They had already quit the Democrat Party, of which Mr Suthep was once secretary-general, to become full-time protest leaders.

Fast forward to this week and the participants were much fewer in number. A number of them hold active political roles in the ACT. Often spotted by Mr Suthep’s side was ACT leader MR Chatumongkol Sonakul.

On the first day of the ACT’s first walk, about 50 co-founders of the group made their way to the Monument of King Rama I, where they organised a ceremony to pay tribute to the late king and took an oath to be loyal to the monarchy. The group then met people in nearby areas, including Pak Khlong Talat.

One observer said the walk was political in nature and that some people, even former PDRC supporters who were watching from the sidelines, could not help but wonder if Mr Suthep was reliving the PDRC marches as part of a “discreet” campaign to capitalise on the former success of the PDRC and its legion of supporters ahead of the general election tentatively scheduled for Feb 24.

The latest walk took place shortly after a number of cabinet ministers who are concurrently top executives of the pro-regime Palang Pracharath Party, dropped by communities to hear their problems.

Regime opponents decried the ministers’ visits and accused them of unfairly benefiting from the blurred lines between wearing ministers’ hats and their role as party executives.

Mr Suthep insisted his walk was not a form of electioneering.

The party said earlier it was aimed at soliciting new members for the ACT.

He said he would not take any position in the party when it convenes a general assembly on Dec 15 to select its executives.

However, the observer noted that some supporters of the now-defunct PDRC may doubt whether Mr Suthep will honour his word, considering that he once declared he would play second fiddle to the ACT leader and that he had previously vowed while heading the protest that he would not assume an active political role again.

But the observer said the public perception of the recent walk was telling. The camera used by the ACT during its live broadcast was almost always on Mr Suthep rather than MR Chatumongkol. That says a lot about who is really in charge, according to the observer.

Some PDRC supporters feel Mr Suthep has two options. He should either step aside and let the limelight shine on MR Chatumongkol, or he should become the leader of the ACT and explain why he has reneged on his promise to avoid politics.

Many of his fans believe coming clean could bode well for the ACT’s political fortunes at the poll.

Team player doubts arise

When Abhisit Vejjajiva served as prime minister between December 2008 and August 2011, his time in power was during the height of a political conflict in which the red-shirt United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship staged protests against his government.

Observers said Mr Abhisit, who took the helm during this crisis, had to devote much of his time and effort in dealing with this issue, which gave him little chance to show how good he really was at running the country.

With the Democrat Party’s leadership contest now under way, supporters of Mr Abhisit are hoping that he will win the race and go on to become prime minister after the general election.

They are also hoping that this time around, Mr Abhisit would return as prime minister in more favourable circumstances, without having to deal with political unrest like he did before.

However, some party members who do not support him say Mr Abhisit’s time is up and that he does not deserve to be re-elected as party leader or become prime minister again, a source said.

But the real reason for their opposition to Mr Abhisit’s return is their fear that if he returns as Democrat leader, the party chances of joining a coalition government after the general election would be reduced, the source said.

This is because Mr Abhisit has declared his party’s readiness to oppose potential coalition allies if their policies are not in line with those of the Democrats and their ideology.

He insisted the party does not exist merely to get elected. Instead, the most important thing is to uphold its policies and ideology.

His remarks raised concerns among some party members who are reluctant to sit on the opposition benches after the next election, the source said, adding that it is natural that any politician who contests a poll would want to form a government.

As plans to set up a pro-regime party and court former MPs into its fold continue, several Democrat members are confident they will have a shot at forging a partnership with a post-election government, with Gen Prayut likely returning as premier, the source said.

These party members believe that if Mr Abhisit gets re-elected as party leader, he will likely pose more of an obstacle to the party joining a coalition than other contenders.

Mr Abhisit shrugged off a rumour that efforts were being made to prevent him from being re-elected. “If we are too concerned about a rumour that there are pre-conditions for joining a government, we will not be able to perform our duty,” he said, insisting that party members will have the final say on who will be the next leader.

There are three contenders for the party leadership — incumbent leader Mr Abhisit, former deputy leader Alongkorn Ponlaboot, and former Democrat Phitsanulok MP Warong Dechgitvigrom.

Last month, the three candidates promised to pursue policies that will help reduce income inequality and ensure growth that would be beneficial to the poor.

At a debate held at the party’s head office, Mr Abhisit said if he wins the race and the Democrat Party wins the election, he will implement a new indicator or index to gauge the livelihoods of the Thai people because it is now clear that GDP alone does not reflect reality.

Warong mounts strong challenge

The Democrat Party leadership contest is now in the home stretch with party members beginning to vote on Thursday despite technical hiccups.

The winner of the race is expected to be endorsed as the party leader on Nov 11 when the Democrats hold a general meeting to name the new leader and appoint 41 executives to lead the party into the next general election.

It is a drastic shift from the traditional approach where Democrat executives selected the leader with members having no real say in picking the candidates for the party’s top job.

According to a party source, the contest, in which three contenders are running, has come down to a two-horse race between incumbent leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and former Phitsanulok MP Warong Dechgitvigrom.

The chances of Alongkorn Ponlaboot, a former deputy leader who re-applied as a party member to vie for the post, winning are slim even though he has put up a strong fight.

To outsiders, Mr Abhisit who has been at the party’s helm for almost 14 years is the clear favourite. But party heavyweights who spent decades building the party’s support base say it is no walk in the park for Mr Abhisit, according to the source.

Dr Warong, a former MP for Phitsanulok, is no longer seen as an underdog.

He has formidable backers who are lobbying hard to sway Democrat members in the South to vote for the aspiring politician from the North. These bigwigs include Thaworn Senneam and Witthaya Kaewparadai whose political clout have remained strong and make up an important part of the Democrat base.

Mr Thaworn, who played a key role in street protests against the Yingluck Shinawatra administration, is expected to be named secretary-general if Dr Warong is named the party leader. He is a six-time MP for Songkhla and a former deputy secretary-general of the party.

With a solid support base in Bangkok, Mr Abhisit is expected to blow his rivals away in the capital. In the eastern region, he can bank on the support of former MP for Rayong Sathit Pitutecha for what is expected to be an outpouring of votes.

In the southern region, Mr Abhisit is believed to maintain an edge over his rivals thanks to the political sway of veterans such as former party leader Banyat Bantadtan, Nipit Intarasombat, Chinnaworn Boonyakiat and Chamni Sakdiseth. These heavyweights can pull in votes from several provinces including Surat Thani, Phatthalung and Nakhon Si Thammarat.

However, Mr Abhisit is not known to have a large following in the North and the Northeast and his backers cannot guarantee a win there, while Dr Warong is expected to gather substantial support from party members across several non-South provinces including Phitsanulok and his home province of Sukhothai.

In his final pitch to party members, the Democrat leader who has 2.27 million followers on Facebook is calling on his supporters not to sit back and relax because he is not leading the race by a huge margin as many believe.

“If you want me to win the race, you must vote for me,” reads his message.

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