For the rest of 2019, Asean cannot be shy and hide in a corner. The regional and global environment requires the grouping to be more vigilant and proactive in ways that would promote better dialogue and cooperation among member countries and key dialogue partners.
It's obvious that this proposition is easier said than done. As the chair of Asean, it is important for Thailand to do whatever it can to strengthen Asean's centrality and come up new ideas to attain this objective. But Bangkok already has a plate full of challenges to see through, not to mention the ramifications of its political opening after nearly five years of military rule.
Since last June, the prevailing regional attitude is a bit gloomy due to the high level of uncertainty outside of the region. Global stability and leadership styles after World War II are no longer the same as it was before. During the Cold War, the world's polarisation made it easier to deal with the "East-West divide". Now, in a "multiplex world" -- to use Prof Amitav Acharya of American University's concept -- there are new powers and actors at play on the global stage.
Every nation is now asserting itself, negotiating and engaging with major powers through a myriad of factors and confluences. The 10-member Asean is no exception. Outsiders have perceived the grouping's diversities in terms of political practices and cultural prides as inherent weaknesses. However, so far Asean has been able to use these diversities to its advantage, as checks and balances.
At 51, Asean is encountering a new strategic environment that demands a purposeful approach, as competition between major powers continues unabated in various forms at all venues -- big or small. Moves by a major power these days are no longer perceived as serving the broader "common good" as before. The "My Country First" notion is proliferating in all four corners of the world.
The bad news is that the shift seen in the US -- in terms of its rhetoric and actions under President Donald Trump -- while self-inflicted, could also dislodge the superpower from its throne of global leadership.
Indeed, nobody in this region would have ever imagined that the world's No.1 and No.2 powers would be marching on a collision course, considering their fierce competition. Now, the US and China are testing each other's strength and weaknesses. The world will soon find out whether the rapid rise of China will lead to a war with the US, which has been reigning supreme since the end of World War II.
As the powers battle it out, global economic growth and regional prosperity will continue to suffer.
Lots of scepticism has been levied on Asean throughout its five decades of existence as a "paper tiger organisation". But thanks to its long-standing benign role as a facilitator, Asean has survived, against all odds. After all, longstanding peace and prosperity in the region is sound testimony to its success and relevance. Scholars and political pundits should have paid more attention to this enviable outcome, instead of pinpointing the downsides of a non-instantaneous and non-interventionist decision-making process.
That said, Asean cannot be complacent. In the coming decades, it certainly needs to be more responsive and act with one voice on issues that have an impact on regional interests.
Today, Asean is changing but the outside world remains oblivious to it, because unlike the European Union, Mercosur or the African Union, the changes fail to make the headlines. Changes within Asean happen slowly as the organisation is based on consensus. New decisions take time, and conflicts conclude in a non-sensational manner. As such, Asean is largely absent from breaking news headlines. That said, when regional interests are at stake, Asean collectively has never shied away from taking a tough stand, as seen through its actions on security-related issues such as counter-terrorism, food security and regional disarmament, among others.
Despite the changes, the mutual rapport and trust between its leaders are stronger than ever. At a recent summit in Singapore, Asean leaders held frank discussions among themselves, and they were able to advance Asean interests in relation to Japan's Indo-Pacific initiative, the ongoing denuclearisation in North Korea, and the promotion of free trade and multilateralism. Most of all, Asean and Myanmar managed to agree on the terms of reference for the Rakhine crisis that will enable cooperation with international organisations. After a long delay, it was awarded with a strategic partnership with Russia and the European Union. Asean is transforming itself into a more powerful regional catalyst to help shape the new regional order.
But one caveat is in order. While the region's elites know what Asean is capable of doing, those at the grassroots level don't. In the absence of a real connection between the top part of the structure and the movers-and-shakers at ground level, a people-centred, integrated Asean community will remain elusive. Without it, Asean citizens will not be able to follow up on the progress of the bloc's integration and its projection of power as a regional player.
The world currently faces a turbulent period caused by growing frustration over the anti-globalisation movement and a hyper-emphasis on free trade, investment and migration, while failing to focus enough on issues such as local people's livelihoods and wellbeing.
The populist tide that has overwhelmed the US and Europe is spreading throughout the world. Britain's ongoing pullout from the EU can provide a valuable lesson for Asean, that it should constantly and attentively listen to the voice of the people. Otherwise, there will be an opposition against any future initiative, even it it is aimed at helping them. Stronger domestic support for Asean will yield more power in international forums.
It is interesting to note that only a small number of Asean citizens think that the grouping has no role to play in settling key global issues. A Singapore-based think tank, the Yusof Ishak Institute said in its latest research, titled The State of Southeast Asia: 2019, that only 23% of Asean citizens view the group with apathy. This means that the majority of Asean citizens still believe that Asean still has some influence.
However, 62% of respondents worry that Asean is "becoming the arena of major power competition". If reality this projection plays out in reality, the survey predicts that in the future, regional politics will be more even polarised. Asean members will need to muster all their resourcefulness to avoid being a pawn in the power game between China and the US.
The role of Asean chair is an enormous one. For better or worse, Asean's centrality and relevancy depends on the wisdom of the chair and its other members, which has shaped Asean into the way it is today.