Despite all the pleasantries in Washington, DC surrounding the latest US-China trade talks over the past week, the rivalry between the world's two largest economies will not subside anytime soon. For years, US-China relations have been on top of the agenda in most of the countries in the Southeast Asian region, but never before have those ties stooped to the present level of animosity.
As key strategic partners of Asean, the US and China must realise that whether they cooperate or confront each other, it will have serious repercussions on the bloc. At this juncture, instead of waiting for the outcome of the talks in a passive manner, Asean should take the bull by the horns by reassessing its ties with the superpowers and identifying strategies that would go beyond this rivalry. Otherwise, Asean will become a sitting duck.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.
Yan Xuetong, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said in Bangkok last week that the US-China trade war and strategic contest will continue unabated and will replace the South China Sea dispute as the region's hottest issue. At present, both China and Asean are working on a single draft of a code of conduct (COC) for the South China Sea. It is still a work in progress, although both Asean and China expect the COC to be completed by 2021.
Mr Yan pointed out that in the future, US-China relations will be more fluid, with issue-specific alliances rather than rigid opposing blocs along clear ideological lines, as in the past. These issues will include market access, technological advantages, and rules and norms governing trade, investment, employment, exchange rates and intellectual property. In such circumstances, Mr Yan said, most countries will adopt a two-track foreign policy, siding with the US on some issues and with China on others. This would allow Asean to increase its role in the regional scheme of things via Asean-led mechanisms.
From Asean's perspective, the US-China confrontation does not augur well for community-building in the region, which requires a stable political and security environment. Before the Trump administration, the US-China relationship was manageable, despite some tensions, as well as policy rebalancing and shifts, but without the threat of war. Asean has been able to plod along, protecting its interests without choosing sides. In the coming months, it remains a huge challenge for Asean as to how the bloc can maintain that status quo as Washington continues to ramp up the rhetoric.
A recent survey conducted by a Singapore-based think tank, the Yusof Ishak Institute, showed high anxiety about US-China relations. Some 73% of 1,008 respondents in Southeast Asia believe China has more political and strategic influence in the region than the US. But at the same time, they expressed concern about China's geostrategic ambitions.
It is interesting to note that, according to the survey, fewer that one in 10 saw China as "a benign and benevolent power", with nearly half saying Beijing possesses "an intent to turn Southeast Asia into a sphere of influence".
In the case of Thailand, China and the US are the country's top two export markets, comprising 22% of foreign trade. The country is wooing both superpowers as the current tension has already affected production chains existing between Thailand and China and their exports to the US. Thailand is looking beyond the US-China trade war by forging free trade relations with countries near and far. At the moment, Bangkok is eager to conclude a free trade agreement with the EU, Turkey, Sri Lanka and Argentina.
Now is an opportune time for Asean to go beyond the US-China squabbling. As the current chair, Thailand has already used the decade-old building-block strategy of Asean by promoting the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC). One of the priorities is to encourage more UN members to accede to the TAC, which now has 35 signatories from all four corners of the world. Peru and Saudi Arabia plan to do so this year.
The next step for the regional bloc is to strengthen all Asean-led mechanisms and rules-based orders both regionally and internationally. At the Chiang Mai retreat last month, the Asean foreign ministers agreed to push forward the regional grouping's version of the Indo-Pacific concept. This would represent the first concrete collective effort by the bloc since the adoption of the Asean Charter in 2008 to push forward Asean-based rules and norms beyond the region.
In addition, Asean's response to myriad Indo-Pacific initiatives shows the bloc's enthusiasm to engage more in shaping the regional and global strategic environment.
Senior Asean officials will meet next month in Chiang Rai to finalise the bloc's version of the Indo-Pacific's future. There could be a name change so as to distinguish the Asean version from others.
The Asean concept has outlined three major challenges. First, Asean wants to create an enabling environment for countries in the region to live in peace through frequent dialogue with respect to international laws and norms.
Second, by pushing forward its Indo-Pacific initiative, Asean wants to ensure its centrality in tackling transnational security challenges, including crime, radicalism and terrorism, drugs and human trafficking, and of course piracy.
The bloc has developed many mechanisms that could address these external challenges. These exist with various hierarchies, including at the government head, foreign ministry, inter-sessional, and working group levels. Strengthening such cooperation among these higher-echelon bodies is increasingly imperative. Asean leaders must not be shy in addressing strategic issues affecting the region.
Finally, Asean can be more assertive in supporting an open and fair economic system. That helps explain why the conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a proposed FTA between the 10 Asean members and six Asia-Pacific states, under the Thai chair is crucial. That would send a strong signal of Asean's centrality in ensuring free trade and wider connectivity.