These are challenging times for Southeast Asian countries. On the economic front, China's slowdown is becoming more pronounced, which could have dire consequences since it is Asean's largest export market and a major source of foreign direct investment (FDI) to the region.
Retail sales, industrial production and property sales all slowed in the final quarter of last year in China. Car sales posted the first annual drop in more than two decades, while the unemployment rate is climbing as companies start laying off people.
Most countries would be giddy with the 6.6% economic growth China achieved last year, but it was the lowest since 1990 and down from 6.8% the year before. Cooling demand both at home and abroad was blamed, and the trade war with the United States added to the problem.
Domestically, consumers and companies have become more cautious about their spending, while banks are wary of extending loans. A crash in peer-to-peer lending, which is harder to track, might also be contributing to the downturn.
Capital flight has also become a concern. Foreign-exchange reserves that were approaching US$4 trillion in 2013 have shrunk by about $1 trillion over the past five years. Slowing exports have played a role, and a further drop in shipments to the US would be troublesome.
Signs of a regional ripple effect are growing. Exports from Singapore fell by much more than expected last month. Non-oil domestic exports contracted 10.1% in January, the deepest fall since October 2016. Exports to all of the city-state's top 10 markets declined, with shipments to China sliding 25.4% year-on-year following a 15.4% expansion in December. Annual economic growth fell for the first time in three years to 3.2% in 2018, from 3.9% a year earlier.
In Malaysia, gross domestic product (GDP) growth dropped from 5.9% in 2017 to 4.7%. The Philippines saw a slowdown from 6.7% to 6.2% due to slumping consumption stemming from high inflation.
Thailand, meanwhile, saw its exports in January slide by 5.7% from a year earlier, but shipments to China were down 16.4%, even as exports to the US rose 8.3%, data showed last Friday.
The Asian Development Bank said the overall growth rate of Southeast Asia's Big Five -- Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand -- declined in 2018 for the first time in three years, to 4.8% from 5.1% in 2017.
More trouble could be in store on the political front as well. The European Union is reviewing its preferential trade arrangement with Cambodia, having made clear its disapproval of Prime Minister Hun Sen's crackdown on dissent and his victory in a sham election last year. A final decision by the EU is still a year away, but some fear the banned opposition party, the Cambodian National Rescue Party, may see an opportunity to stoke unrest.
In Malaysia, the euphoria of last May's upset election victory has given way to splits within the new coalition. And as former prime minister Najib Razak awaits trial on graft charges, there has been a revival in his popularity among the majority Malay population. This development has unnerved the new multiracial government led by veteran Mahathir Mohamad and underscored its vulnerability to fickle conservative Malay sentiment.
Both Myanmar and the Philippines have endured protracted struggles at different times to replace dictatorship with democracy. Yet both countries have seen a drastic slide back toward repression under elected leaders. Freedom of expression has been deeply disappointing in Myanmar under the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Reporters Without Borders ranked the country 137th out of 180 countries, given the prosecution of 20 journalists in the past year.
In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte remains popular despite his controversial war on drugs that has killed thousands of people. His campaign against critics in the media has also intensified, with Maria Ressa, the head of the popular news service Rappler, facing cybercrime and tax-evasion charges that most people believe are trumped up.
People in Thailand, meanwhile, are scheduled to head to the polls on March 24, but there is no guarantee that an elected government will lead to an end to political confrontations or produce long-term stability.
In Indonesia, campaigning for parliamentary and presidential elections due in mid-April is under way. The worry is that ultra-nationalist and religious extremist elements could hijack the campaign.
Given all the challenges its members face, it is thus more important than ever for Asean to rededicate itself to serving as a stable platform for regional economic growth. It is vital for the member states to put aside domestic turmoil and demonstrate a unity of purpose.