Across the other half of the globe, Thailand's Asean chair has been viewed with scepticism and doubt. In the US, the upcoming election, the coronation and other domestic developments were perceived as variables that could impact the ambitious Thai chair. Then there is a bigger lingering question about President Donald Trump's overseas trips this year.
Policymakers and political pundits in Washington DC have paid more attention to headline news of political developments in Thailand than the Asean chair. Indeed, the electoral campaigns by various parties, especially Thai Raksa Chart, have intrigued observers of Thai politics. Obviously, the party's electoral strategy has spawned myriad conspiracy theories in the Western media.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs. He was recently in Washington..
As for Coronation Day in early May, there was some anxiety as to why foreign dignitaries have not been invited. The ceremony will follow all the steps that were taken in 1950 when his father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, ascended the throne. For Thais, it will be a time for celebration in the Kingdom. It will have no impact on the Thai chair.
To understand Thailand's role in Asean, one has to understand the evolution of its engagement since its birth in 1967. In the past 52 years, Thailand has been the most consistent in supporting the regional organisation, which was born out of the Cold War. Through thick and thin, it has never backslid on its Asean policy. All Thai governments, past and present, have only sought to strengthen Asean and increase its relevancy. Even in the worst period during the 2008-2009 chairmanship, Thailand managed to kick start the Asean charter which came into effect that year. Bangkok successfully pushed for the Asean Master Plan of Connectivity and the establishment of the Asean Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights. In anticipation of the Asean Economic Community, previous Thai governments spent several billion baht to increase awareness among the Thai public and promote seamless Asean economic integration.
This time around, Thailand has identified 13 deliverables during its chairmanship. This is a tall order but achievable. Over the past nearly five years, the current military administration has tried even harder to deepen the Thai commitment to Asean. Most importantly, Thailand wants to raise the profile and centrality of Asean to prepare the bloc to cope with the new challenges coming from new disruptive elements, including technology and uncertainties arising from fluid regional and international environment.
Therefore, it has an ambitious plan. Thailand has already invited leaders of the five members of the UN Security Council to Bangkok in early November. Since 2005, Asean holds its most important gathering at its year-end summit, known as the East Asia Summit (EAS), which is the only strategic forum in the region. For the 14th EAS, Germany, Britain and France have already replied that their leaders will join a working lunch with their EAS counterparts from Asean, the US, China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, India, Australia and New Zealand ahead of the summit. It is incumbent on the Asean chair to see to it that this mega gathering takes place and further strengthens ties between Asean and the global movers and shakers.
In 2017, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and European Council President Donald Tusk joined the working lunch ahead of the EAS as special guests of the chair. Last November, under the Singapore chair, Chilean President Michelle Bachelet and IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde attended a similar function.
As a result, this year Mr Trump's overseas itinerary is under close scrutiny by the Asean members. He is visiting Hanoi to attend the second Trump-Kim summit beginning tomorrow. Then, he plans to visit Japan twice. First, Mr Trump will become the first foreign leader to meet with Japanese Crown Prince Naruhito, who will become emperor after ascending the Chrysanthemum Throne on May 1. Then, the US president is to visit Japan again to attend the G20 summit a few weeks later in Osaka.
Now the most frequently asked question is whether Mr Trump will make a fourth trip to Asia. The answer depends on what he will get out of it. To persuade him to come to Bangkok, the Thai chair must prepare a package of things only Mr Trump can get. Otherwise, he will just skip the EAS as in the previous year. He halfheartedly participated at the EAS in the Philippines in 2017, much to the chagrin of his host, President Rodrigo Duterte.
As the Thai chair enters its third month, an agenda of deliverables in all three pillars -- political/security, economic, social/culture -- is taking shape. In particular, at the upcoming Asean senior official meeting (SOM) in Chiang Rai early next month, it will also indicate the path of Asean to tackle external challenges posed by the new realignment of the major powers. The Asean version of the Indo-Pacific concept would mark the grouping's first attempt to raise its regional code of conduct, enshrined in the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, to the global level. In 1992, the TAC was circulated as a UN document and since then has attracted 38 signatories including the European Union. Apart from its original principles and norms, the Thai chair has already included the grouping's additional best practices, such as the principle of mutual respect, trust and benefits to the Asean norms, which have brought peace and prosperity to Southeast Asia.
Indeed, after the March 24 election, whatever transpires will not alter the Thai Asean chair's planned deliverables and commitments due to the support of the Asean consensus.