Speculation is rife about imminent changes in Thailand's diplomatic direction after five years of military-ruled guidance. Political pundits and campaigners ahead of the polls last week also sent out strong signals that they expect a new cabinet in Government House with new policies. One of the casualties would be Thai-Chinese ties, which have progressed and strengthened without waveringly over the past five years. However, the outcome of Sunday's election indicates that whichever parties form the next civilian government, there will be little effect on the country's foreign relations or the current Asean chair. Indeed, Thailand's foreign policy will become more dynamic with continuity.
As in previous elections, foreign policy issues have not been featured in political campaigns. It was very rarely that diplomatic issues of the day were brought up and used as a campaign promise. In the May 2011 election, the Phra Viharn/Preah Vihear Temple dispute between Thailand and Cambodia was picked up by the Kitsangkhom Party (Social Action Party), which pledged to take back the temple. As it turned out, voters paid no attention as they were more interested in local khao pla -- rice and fish -- economic conditions and other "pivotal" challenges such as education and the scope of government subsidies.
The outcome of the March 24 election will not affect Thailand's external relations in the short- or -medium term. The reason is clear and simple: Thailand's foreign policy has been non-confrontational and friendly to all countries. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is run by risk-averse bureaucrats who have practised their diplomatic craft backed by a centuries-old tradition without interruption because of the country's independence and freedom from colonisation by Western powers.
At this juncture, given the disruptive regional and international environment facing countries in the region, several Asean members are caught in a dilemma as they try to pursue their multi-pronged objectives without choosing sides. Like Thailand, the grouping has a similar objective in maintaining peace and economic prosperity while avoiding any affiliation with major powers. That explains why Asean is watching the China-US trade war and its consequences very closely.
From 2014-2019, under the Prayut administration, Thailand's foreign policy has gone through different stages of transformation. First of all, it aimed at restoring the country's regional and international profile. The first two years after the coup proved to be the most arduous period due to the harsh reactions of the US and Western European countries. They thought the Prayut government would remain in power for just a year or two at best, judging from the long history of coups in Thailand. Various transitional governments have lasted less than a year and half on average. The longest interim period was 486 days, which followed the the 2006 coup until an election was held.
In response to Thailand's abrupt political change, major powers such as China, Russia, Japan, India and South Korea kept bilateral relations at the "status quo", which gave Thailand some much-needed recognition. As such, their ties with Thailand have been strengthened due to the continued diplomatic engagement and dialogue. Existing agreements were not disrupted and numerous projects and programmes popped up anew. China, Japan, South Korea and India also benefited from supporting Thailand. These economic powerhouses will play bigger roles in the economic schemes of things both regionally and on a country level.
On the other hand, in the absence of normal diplomatic transactions with the US and Western European countries, their ties with Thailand became stagnant, causing delays in all collaborative efforts. Senior Thai military officials were upset by the US treatment and blocked several Thai-US initiatives, except the "Cobra Gold" annual military exercise. Truth be told, had the US halted the multilateral military showcase, as some US lawmakers and opinion leaders suggested, the traditional Thai-US military alliance and friendship would have crumbled -- even to the point of being beyond resuscitation.
Thailand's ties with the EU reached their lowest point in the same period. Brussels wisely targeted Thailand over the illegal fishing issue rather than focusing on political issues. This approach has yielded mixed results. Thailand worked hard to successfully overcome the EU demands over the fishing industry. However, overall ties were pushed back, negotiations of a bilateral free trade agreement were postponed, and other restrictions were imposed.
In response to the sanctions imposed by the US and European countries, Thailand strengthened diplomatic ties with developing countries. The country's Group of 77 chairmanship in 2015 was considered an unusual diplomatic step to make new friends. In various international arenas, Thailand continued to play an active role in nuclear disarmament, implementing UN sustainable development goals, and synergising the Asean sustainable development agenda with other UN-related goals.
The second stage of transformation came immediately after the Trump administration sent a strong signal that with a new team in the White House in early 2017, the resumption of Thai-US ties was a top priority. It took less than five months to prepare for Gen Prayut's visit to Washington. The trip helped restore normalcy to their traditional cooperation and dialogue. After years of tackling human trafficking and modern slavery, the Prayut government won kudos from Washington. It remains to be seen if the next Trafficking in Persons Report would upgrade the kingdom's status. If so, the government should be given credit.
Thanks to Mr Trump, other democracies also softened their hard-line approach to Thailand. At the same time, Washington targeted Bangkok for unfair trade practices due to huge trade deficits incurred. At the moment, Thai and American negotiators are fighting about a major US export to Thailand -- pork offal. Serious talks are focused on market access, not human rights, as the public would have thought.
Throughout last year, the government was toying with the electoral date. As early as March 2018, the earlier date of Feb 24, 2019 was scheduled. However, it was changed to March 24 early this year due to a scheduling conflict with Coronation Day. Indeed, pledges to hold elections despite five postponements also loosened restrictions and increased contact with the US and Europe.
Finally, from last year, the resumption of these ties, albeit not a full spectrum, was sufficient to rebalance Thailand's relations with all major powers. Deterioration of Thai-US and Thai-European relations during 2014-2017 was caused by their discriminatory actions. The transitional periods that followed former coups were too short to see any substantive change in these relations. However, the five-year-old Prayut administration has embedded a different political and diplomatic environment.
Beginning this week, Thailand's traditional relations with the US and Europe will be fully normalised. Thai foreign policy will return to the pre-2014 period. The progress and achievements Thailand and other major powers made prior to the election will continue. Obviously, dialogue and transactions with the US and Europe will also be intensified to catch up with China and the other powers.
The US has already approached Thailand to accelerate ties bilaterally and regionally. Washington would like to increase engagement and investment in infrastructure, connectivity and energy in Thailand and Asean. Big news is expected during Thailand's tenure as chair of Asean. It is an open secret that Thailand supports the EU as a strategic partner and a potential member of the East Asia Summit. The EU and Thailand are returning to long-delayed FTA talks. The EU has also shown interest in development programmes with the Mekong subregion.
As such, one can expect to see the "dynamic continuity" of Thai diplomacy continue to reach out the four corners of the world.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.