People who are familiar with Thai politics must know the metaphor ngu hao, literally cobra, which implies betrayal, dirty political games and bargaining.
Ngu hao originated from a folk tale about a snake that killed a kind-hearted farmer who had saved him.
The metaphor gained a place in Thai politics for the first time in 1997 when then prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh stepped down following the Tom Yum Kung economic crisis. The Prachakorn Thai Party was to form a coalition with Chart Pattana until a group of 12 MPs under its banner made a deal with the opposition Democrat Party, enabling Chuan Leekpai to form a government. Frustrated Prachakorn Thai leader Samak Sundaravej then likened the 12 MPs to "cobras".
Another infamous "cobra" incident involved Buri Ram politician Newin Chidchob, then a close aide of Thaksin Shinawatra, who shifted his support to the opposition Democrat Party during the 2008 political crisis. Because of his swift change, Abhisit Vejjajiva was able to climb the political ladder and become prime minister as colour-coded conflicts took deep root in our politics. Some of the members of the Newin faction were appointed as cabinet ministers afterwards, sparking public speculation about behind-the-scenes negotiations.
Over the years, we hoped political cobras had become extinct but unfortunately several post-poll incidents suggest otherwise.
Those incidents have revived bad memories about the infamous metaphor and also fears that our political situation will plunge into another crisis as the two major political parties, Pheu Thai and the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), compete to form a coalition. According to the unofficial election result, Pheu Thai won the largest number of constituency seats, with 137 MPs, while the PPRP captured 117 seats.
With 8.4 million popular votes in its pocket, the PPRP is expected to perform a political handshake with the Ruam Phalang Prachachart Thai Party led by Suthep Thaugsuban -- the leader of the anti-Shinawatra protests that paved the way for the 2014 military coup.
Last week, leaders of Pheu Thai and six other parties -- Future Forward, the Thai Liberal Party, Pracha Chart, Pheu Chart, Palang Puangchon Thai and the New Economics Party -- agreed to come together with a combined number of about 245 MPs, but they need at least 251 to form a coalition government, and 376 to secure the group's choice of prime minister, given that 250 senators will likely throw their support behind Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha of the PPRP.
With such fierce competition, medium- and small-sized parties like Bhumjaithai and the Democrats will become vital. Both parties have yet to say what side will get their support.
It's not difficult to imagine that tense, behind-the-scenes negotiations and bargaining is going on. The deals might not be fair, let alone clean.
Veteran politician Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan said some political groups have attempted to lure politicians from the Pheu Thai-led faction with tempting offers including cabinet positions in the new government.
If those politicians accept the offer, we'll see ngu hao in parliament. It would be a shame as such deals mean those politicians will have betrayed the people who voted for them and, needless to say, such decisions are bad for democracy.
Deal-making is going on as each side tries to take the coalition lead. We have learned from history that, with our political structure, those struggling for power often resort to any means necessary to secure victory. Transparency and fairness are not -- and have never been -- in their vocabulary.
It is sad to say, but the seven-strong Election Commission (EC), which is supposed to act as a neutral regulator, has disappointed us tremendously with scandal after scandal. The fact that the EC could not release initial poll results has intensified public suspicion about the process, while "errors" in vote counting have widely been reported by netizens. The EC vehemently denied those accusations. Yet, the poll agency's pro-military stance has inevitably shaken public confidence in it. Take the PPRP's Chinese banquet scanadal where the EC's verdict that whitewashed the pro-military party made the agency seem clownish.
The EC's unprecedentedly long time-frame for certifying election results gives political factions plenty of time to bargain. In other words, it means there is a bigger chance of "cobras" emerging. This is no good for our democracy or our country.
History is repeating itself. As long as there are only politicians within the power structure and the voice of the people remains too weak to counter those in this dirty game, things will never change. These cobras will kill off the establishment of real democracy in Thailand.
Paritta Wangkiat is a columnist, Bangkok Post.