Waking up on my first morning in Las Vegas, where the time is 14 hours behind Thailand, was not easy. Cup of coffee in hand, I walked past a group of senior citizens wearing red long-sleeved T-shirts outside a large conference hall. They were event ambassadors, hired to welcome and guide participants from all over the world, and the sight of their smiling faces helped to bring me awake. What a pleasant start to the day: I get to experience human interaction and some seniors have a chance to earn extra income, I was telling myself.
I was in Las Vegas for the Adobe Summit 2019, where the US software company showcased its latest technologies and innovations. Many are changing our daily lives. For example, there are now apps that show how a sofa in a catalogue will look in your living room, or how you will look in a new jacket without having to go to a store to try it on.
That got me thinking: As artificial intelligence (AI) and other advances gain momentum, what does the future hold for stores and the people who work in them? How many job losses are we talking about?
No one can reasonably claim that we would be better off without many of these new technologies. At the same time, however, the way we educate people for the world of work has not changed fundamentally for decades. In fact, public spending on workforce training and support has been falling in most advanced member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Now is a critical time to reverse that trend. Both governments and businesses need to make workforce transition and job creation a more urgent priority. We need creative visions for how our lives will be organised and valued.
Here in Southeast Asia, the research firm IDC reports that AI adoption by businesses jumped to 14% last year from 8% the previous year. Set against the backdrop of a potential talent deficit of 47 million workers across Asia Pacific by 2030, a gap firms hope to fill with AI, how will this affect industries and what kinds of jobs will be affected first?
Conventional wisdom is that automation is mostly deployed to perform repetitive tasks for extra efficiency and minimal error. That frees humans to do more creative things. But Ben Goertzel, an AI expert and co-creator of Sophia, the world's first "robot citizen", has warned that AI will be a bigger job killer than most people believe.
"As AI becomes mainstream, today's AI capabilities will open up to more general uses, otherwise known as artificial general intelligence (AGI). Once this happens, there will be fewer tasks that humans can perform more efficiently or economically. The unique economic value of humans will then be restricted to special cases like psychological therapy, entertainment and arts or roles that require human engagement or interaction to deliver value," he wrote in a piece to promote ConnecTechAsia2019 to be held in Singapore in mid-June.
Still, the benefits of AI and automation, and the economic growth from productivity gains, are compelling. Thus, all societies need to embrace the technologies as well as the challenges that come with them.
Businesses need to retool their processes and reevaluate their talent strategies and workforce needs. In the new world of work, which individuals are needed, which ones can be redeployed to other jobs, and where will new talents be required?
Governments can smooth the transition by focusing more on job retraining and development of marketable new skills throughout people's lifetimes. They should also create conditions to support greater labour-market mobility. For instance, talent platforms could match workers and companies seeking their skills.
As well, transition assistance to help displaced workers find employment will be essential. These can include unemployment insurance, public assistance in finding work, and portable benefits that follow workers between jobs.
Individuals also need to be prepared for the rapidly evolving future of work. Acquiring new skills that are in demand will be critical for our own well-being. We need to rethink traditional notions of where and how we work, and what talents and capabilities we bring to that work.
All of us have constructive and important roles to play in smoothing the workforce transitions ahead. Countries that fail to manage this transition could see rising unemployment and severe economic impacts such as depressed wages, which could dampen aggregate demand and long-term growth.