Despite the controversy and confusion over Thailand's March 24 election outcome, its immediate and far-reaching implications are indisputable.
After closer inspection, these election results are what Thailand has been looking for to strengthen its political party system, with the entry of fresh talent, the rebuff of old-style cliques and clans, and bonding between parties and policies.
The people's electoral choices point to a clear way forward, and thwarting or usurping it may come with equally far-reaching consequences.
On the face of it, the Thai party system became weakened and fragmented in the last poll. A host of small parties have emerged. In fact, more than a dozen banners are poised to gain just one MP seat among 150 in the party-list apportionment of the 500-member House of Representatives. Thanks to a carefully crafted constitution by the military government's appointed committee, the party system appears so weak that no single camp appears able to form a stable and effective coalition government.
Yet what is easy to overlook in the dusty post-election environment is the upside in electoral politics, despite the rules and referees that have elicited widespread questions and doubts about their impartiality and integrity.
First, the established Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana parties of the old-style Thai politics of the 1990s and 2000s have fared poorly. The former earned merely six constituency seats this time, the latter merely one. With four and two party-list seats tentatively allotted to Chartthaipattana and Chart Pattana, the two parties that led coalition governments in the recent past based on patronage networks and provincial strongholds in the central and northeast regions, command only 10 and three, respectively. The old rural patronage ties did not work for them this time.
Second, the banner that stole the show in this election is Future Forward Party (FFP). For the first time in Thai politics, a third-largest winning party with at least 80 total seats, but without the traditional party machinery and network of canvassers, showed what a clear policy platform and social media campaigning can do. While its fate is uncertain and the future of its leaders, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Piyabutr Saenkanokkul, is clouded by what appears to be politically driven charges, the FFP has already made its mark.
A party of new faces with a strong and unwavering stand in politics and without the usual money-politics cash machine can do well. Such a merit-based party from outside of the money politics that congenitally dominated Thai elections is something Thailand has been searching for. Even if it is tripped up along the way, FFP has set a new benchmark for Thai political parties.
Similarly, the Seriruamthai Party has also come up from nowhere to gain 10 seats. It should be seen next to the FFP as a party without a cash machine and brand recognition -- this one centreing on former national police chief and party leader Pol Gen Sereepisuth Temeeyaves -- but yet can still win votes.
Third, even the patronage-driven parties, particularly Bhumjaithai, are inclined to stick to their policy pledges. In the past, once elections are completed, old-style winning parties proceeded to their old ways of graft and pork-barreling, abandoning what they promised voters.
This time, Bhumjaithai is adamant that its proposed liberalisation of cannabis must stand and that this policy is a quid pro quo for its partnership in any coalition government. Bhumjaithai may even be ahead of the curve on cannabis, as states worldwide are increasingly liberalising it as a recreational and medicinal product. As the fifth-largest winning party, Bhumjaithai is showing that policy pledges matter.
Fourth, while the Democrat Party disappointingly came in as the fourth-largest winner, with its most dismal performance in decades, the party is now doing the introspection and soul-searching that it has long needed. The party might see some defections and realignment or a possible takeover by a pro-military faction. It has a chance to re-emerge leaner and more in tune with the times in the progressive mould that FFP has shown. If so, this could be the new wave of Thailand's future political parties.
Fifth, with 137 constituency seats, Pheu Thai is the largest winning party but its results this time are the lowest it has ever garnered since being formed in 1998. Its de facto leader in exile, Thaksin Shinawatra, evidently miscalculated by involving a senior royal member in the recently dissolved Thai Raksa Chart, Pheu Thai's sister party.
If TRC had not been folded by the Constitutional Court, the two parties combined may have tallied upwards of 180 seats. Even though it has been dissolved twice under different names in 2007 and 2008, Pheu Thai is still holding considerable ground in the North and Northeast. It can be seen as the strongest and most resilient of the Thai political parties after two decades.
Finally, the pro-military parties are also displaying positive signs of political development. The former leader of street demonstrations that occupied central Bangkok for months in 2013-14, Suthep Thaugsuban, the titular head of the Action Coalition for Thailand, won just one constituency seat, and lost his entire Surat Thani province to other competitors. With four party-list seats, ACT mustered only five MPs overall -- not a high number for a party that was supposed to represent Thailand's vast majority.
The pro-military Palang Pracharath Party came in as the second-largest winner, with 116 MPs altogether and the highest number of popular votes. But with state media, government largess, army assistance, and a bureaucracy, a constitution, and state agencies like the Election Commission seemingly in its corner, Palang Pracharath should have romped to first place and left others in the dust.
This was not the case. This junta-backed party will likely bulldoze its way to power behind incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha at all costs. In doing so, it may well undermine and overturn the people's preferences at the March 24 poll and heighten political risks to Thailand's future.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak teaches at the Faculty of Political Science and directs the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University.