Japan and South Korea must stop their tit-for-tat measures before their worsening relations reach the point of no return. The ongoing spat between Asian's two economic giants has sent chills down the spines of regional leaders, who are very concerned that it could spiral out of control and break down the longstanding spirit of East Asian community-building. If that happens, the post-war stability and prosperity of the past seven decades would quickly disappear. Difficult as it is, now is the time to mend fences.
In his speech last week to commemorate Korea's independence from Japan's 1910-45 rule, President Moon Jae-in softened his anti-Japanese rhetoric, repeating that his country would be happy to join hands with Tokyo if it opts for dialogue and cooperation. His much-needed remarks opened a new but narrow window for the two nemeses to meet and have a dialogue so that a serious solution can be worked out. But some groundworks are needed.
First, both Foreign Minister Taro Kono and his South Korean counterpart, Kang Kyung-wha, must establish a comfort level between them; otherwise it would be difficult for the two sides to have a meaningful dialogue. When they met in Bangkok on Aug 2 during the Asean annual meeting, it was a bad time as Japan had announced Seoul's removal from the whitelist of countries with preferential trade treatment. Therefore, it was essentially a photo opportunity. At the time, Japan and South Korea wanted to show to the international community, in particular Asean, that they were still on talking terms. It was not a pleasant sight as Mr Kono's and Ms Hwa's facial expressions were not friendly at all.
From the Asean perspective, it was the first time that there has been such a row between Asean's key dialogue partners within the Asean plus three (APT) conference. Throughout the past decades, the APT has served as a neutral and fertile ground for China, Japan and South Korea to discuss their mutual concerns and reconcile their differences. Through Asean, the region's three economic powers have been able to join hands and work together on important areas of cooperation such as energy security, natural gas development, human resource development and others. Lest we forget, Asean also helped launched the so-called Tripartite Cooperation Secretariat in 2009.
Second, before the scheduled tripartite meeting in Beijing between the foreign ministers of China, Japan and South Korea, this week, there must be some positive signals coming from Tokyo and Seoul to lay the groundwork for their dialogue. Last week, Japan approved the first shipment of high-tech material to South Korea since the imposition of export curbs last month. Tokyo should continue to demonstrate such friendly gestures without expanding the current list.
In a similar vein, Seoul also sends a signal that its recent notification to take out Japan from the list of trust trading partner would be a subject of further negotiation. Most importantly is the status of General Security of Military Information Agreement, or GSOMIA, which will expire soon. Under all circumstances, it must continue albeit Seoul's strong indications that it will be annulled. The agreement, which highlighted the mutual confidence of security cooperation between the two top US allies must be kept intact. Since November 2016, Japan and South Korea have benefited from sharing information about North Korea's missile and nuclear threat. The deadline for renewal is Aug 24; therefore Seoul needs to act fast.
Third, all stakeholders in Japan and South Korea must get together to discuss ways and means to reconcile the past and work out the future. Media in both countries have a crucial role to play. Judging from past reports, media outlets in both countries have supported their governments' actions and sometimes applaud retaliatory measures. However, on Thursday, the Asahi Shimbun and Tokyo Shimbun came out with a strong editorial urging Japan to own up to its wartime history.
Indeed, Japan and South Korean civil society leaders, including academics, are powerful influencers when historical lessons and ties are being discussed. As they can take a proactive role in shaping the narratives of the past and ongoing dialogues, especially when they were discussing about the overall national historical experience and traumas. They need to create a conducive environment for the policymakers to revisit their decisions.
Finally, Japan and South Korea must realise that if the dispute continues, it will be a lose-lose proposition for both, especially when it comes to their common objective of reining in and denuclearising North Korea. At this juncture, Japan-South Korea solidarity is utmost imperative and required to strengthen the international sanctions against Pyongyang. As US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un try to prepare for their fourth meeting, the continued conflict would further weaken Japan's and South Korea's bargaining power on issues related peace and security in the Korean Peninsula.
In a related development, one caveat is in order. The deterioration of Japan-South Korea relations including security cooperation would eventually lead to further destabilisation of the whole Indo-Pacific region. In the long haul, their adversarial stance would encourage the hawkish elements in both countries to increase defence spending and engage in arms race. Furthermore, failure to induce North Korea's to denuclearise will provide incentives for Japan and South Korea to seek nuclear capacity of their own as a way to protect themselves.
When President Moon Jae-in visits Thailand in early September, the Asean chair must impress on him that a trusting and firm relationship with Japan is a prerequisite for further stability, economic development and integration in East Asia.
Any breakdown of Japan-South Korea ties, especially trade links, would be disastrous for the region. It would have an economic domino effect that could disrupt the nearly concluded negotiation of the world's largest free-trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), as well as other numerous APT and Asean-led cooperative schemes.
That would be the end of the Asian Century as we know it.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is veteran journalist on regional affairs.