With the 2020 budget bill being tabled in parliament next month, the final countdown has started for the coalition government led by army chief-turned-politician Prayut Chan-o-cha.
The bill is slotted for its first reading in the Lower House on Oct 17. Second and third readings are expected to take place in early January, following which there will be a vote. If the bill gains the Lower House's approval, it will be forwarded to the Senate before being submitted for royal endorsement.
Yet, a razor-thin majority means Prayut's government is extremely vulnerable. Failure to gain support for this crucial bill is a matter of life or death, politically, for the leader and his coalition.
Earlier this week House Speaker Chuan Leekpai warned of dire political consequences if the 3.2-trillion-baht spending plan is shot down. The veteran politician said the government whips would have to ensure passage of the bill and that they should be aware of the consequences if the bill does not pass.
While Mr Chuan did not elaborate, the bill's failure would give rise to political pressure for Gen Prayut to resign or dissolve the House in a show of responsibility in accordance with political tradition.
There is, indeed, a grave risk for the government if we look at the votes it has in its pocket. We don't need a scientist's brain to know that the chances are high of the coalition stumbling, just taking into account what the Palang Pracharath-led coalition has gone through over past months.
To begin with, we have witnessed disunity in the coalition especially in the economic team. Heavyweights from three major parties, the PPRP, Democrats and Bhumjaithai, in the economic team sing a different tune as they have to carry out promises they made during the election campaigns. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, head of the economic team, was clearly upset with the lack of unity, something totally different from the days of the military regime. The coalition is now like a crippled boat in a very rough ocean. There are fears that it could sink anytime it is faced with a storm.
Such fears are not an exaggeration. Before parliament adjourned on Sept 18, the government had lost to the opposition bloc in a vote twice. It's quite fortunate that the losses did not trigger a collapse as the voting, regarding House meeting rules, was not about a life and death matter. Yet, it speaks volumes about the risks to the governing coalition with such a slim majority.
Now MPs in the coalition camp, like cabinet ministers, cannot afford to miss a House meeting or the coalition could risk a defeat in the voting. The number of government MPs has shrunk from 254 to 251 after PPRP member Waipoj Apornrat was stripped of his status after the court sentenced him to life imprisonment for his role in a riot that shut down the Asean Summit in 2009.
The number may shrink further to 250 if Krungsrivilai Suthinpuak, also a PPRP member, follows suit as he was yellow-carded for attempted vote buying. However, the actor-cum-politician can still function in parliament until a final ruling on his guilt by the Supreme Court.
Another two defectors are leaders of micro parties who are upset after they missed out in the allocation of House panel seats.
Needless to say, such a volatile situation leaves Gen Prayut restless.
The opposition bloc, at the same time, can maintain its fortitude with 245 MPs (from an original number of 246 but Future Forward Party (FFP) leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit has been suspended over a share saga). Even though it has lost two members, one is Nawat Tohcharoensuk who was sentenced to death for his role in a murder case while the other, Jumpita Chankachorn of the FFP called it quits for health reasons, prompting a by-election in Nakhon Pathom province. Yet, the two leaders of the micro parties help lift the number to 245.
It's true that the number of coalition MPs is higher than that of the opposition. But there could be a crisis if the House speaker and his two deputies are required by tradition to abstain during the vote in a show of neutrality. If that is the case, the number of government MPs will be 247 against 245 in the opposition camp!
With such a small margin, the coalition will have to use all the tactics it can to lure some opposition MPs and survive. It may get five votes from the New Economics Party under new leader Manoon Siwapiromrat, who has made it clear his votes will be on a "case by case" basis. Such a position contrasts with his predecessor Mingkwan Saengsuwan who vowed not to support the administration.
In addition, there is speculation that some Pheu Thai MPs may break ranks from the opposition following reports that they turned up to receive Gen Prayut during his recent trip to the Northeast.
Rumours about defections are rife amid reports that 14 Pheu Thai politicians attended a breakfast with Justice Minister Somsak Thepsutin, a senior PPRP figure.
The government has to do whatever it can to ensure the passing of the budget bill. What it needs to do is to keep a close watch on the seven micro parties which are now its weakest links that may break ranks any time. Losing just one or two votes from this group could leave Gen Prayut in trouble.
Such a situation reminds many of a political mishap that happened in our political history in the 1940s. Field Marshal Plaek Phibulsonggram had to resign as premier after failing to secure support for two government-sponsored bills.
One was a decree on the relocation of the capital from Bangkok to Phetchabun which saw the government defeated by 36:48; and the other was a decree to designate Saraburi as a Buddhist city, by 41:43. The two consecutive defeats in parliament forced the field marshal to step down on July 24, 1944.
Even though the current constitution gave Gen Prayut a chance to make a comeback with support from the senators hand-picked by the coup body, the prime minister could still suffer.
Going back to square one, forming another coalition, won't do him any good as there would be a big fight among coalition parties for cabinet seats like the previous time.
It would be an ugly scene that undermines the government's stability, while all policies would be stalled. Such a scenario will make investors lose confidence in the government.
The Prayut-led government is bracing for a crucial test. It has to count on every vote in order to survive politically.
Chairith Yonpiam is an assistant news editor, Bangkok Post.