It’s now more than evident that army chief Gen Apirat Kongsompong has become a key actor in the country’s post-coup politics. His actions over the past few months have stirred speculation about his intentions: Does he have ambitions to become the next prime minister?
Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, the military regime’s “big brother”, even played along when he told reporters that Gen Apirat could become the next PM if he so desired. He later made an about-face by claiming he had been “joking”, while the army chief gave a tactful response, saying he was not eligible for the premiership since the constitution prohibits people in certain positions from becoming PM. Gen Apirat still serves in the army and also in the senate.
But it should be noted that his apparent rejection is based on a state of affairs that could change: ie, to become a legitimate candidate for prime minister, a person must first be nominated by a political party. Incumbent PM Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha was nominated by the Palang Pracharat Party, while Anutin Charnvirakul was nominated by Bhumjaithai and Abhisit Vejjajiva by the Democrats.
So far, Gen Apirat’s name has not appeared on the candidate list of any party. Moreover, he is not eligible during the term of this current parliament since the constitution stipulates a senator must wait two years after stepping down before taking up a cabinet or PM’s position.
But if we read his message carefully, Gen Apirat’s “no” is far from definite. More importantly, it clearly applies for the time being only. The general is set to retire next Oct, meaning he can qualify as a candidate for PM in three years, or 2022. By that time, it’s likely that support for Gen Prayut, after eight consecutive years in power following the 2014 coup, will have waned significantly. Our political scene then could well be more fragile, beset by violent conflicts. There are doubts over whether Gen Prayut will be able to control the political minnows now keeping his coalition intact.
And let’s not forget the clause in the military-sponsored charter that gives the senate, handpicked by the coupmakers, power to vote for the prime minister along with elected MPs for the next five years or until 2024. This means that if Gen Apirat harbours political ambitions after his retirement next year, he can wait another two years before seeking the top job with support from the senate. But such a scenario is dependent on him being enlisted as a PM candidate by a political party. The chance of him becoming an “outsider” PM is slim, given it would require approval from his arch-enemies, the opposition.
More importantly, history indicates we should not take Gen Apirat’s “no” to politics too seriously. A number of army generals before him have disavowed political ambition only to go back on their word once the time came. Gen Suchinda Kraprayoon is a prime example. His change of mind and entry into politics triggered a popular uprising that forced him to step down in 1992. Gen Prayut, too, repeatedly declared he had no interest in prolonging his power during the days after the 2014 coup. Five years later he remains the country’s leader.
It’s almost certain that Gen Apirat will take a political role after his retirement, either via the same channel as Gen Prayut or through special powers or a coup. Lest we forget, the army chief has refused to rule out another coup d’etat. His controversial lecture on national security earlier his month attested to his political aspirations and, if Gen Prayut steps out of politics, we will likely see Gen
Apirat at the political forefront rather than behind the scenes.
A closer look at his profile reveals Gen Apirat has served the monarchy for many years. He was formerly chief of the King’s Guard, 1st Division and also commanded the 11th Infantry Regiment. He is the son of Gen Sunthorn Kongsompong, leader of the 1991 coup that ousted the Chatichai Choonhavan government.
In 2010, Gen Apirat was a key figure in the crackdown on red-shirt demonstrators. He also led armed officers in a raid to reclaim the Thaicom satellite station in Pathum Thani after it was seized by red shirts. He was appointed secretary-general of the National Council for Peace and Order after the 2014 coup and then rose to become top army commander last year.
He despises the Future Forward Party, which he accuses of being “leftist” and having connections with those promoting sedition. His brazen claims about a communist revival, made during a lecture earlier this month, sparked controversy and, more crucially, widened the bitter political divide. We witnessed our politics take a backward step.
However, this is not the first time that Gen Apirat has sent the political mercury soaring. Frustrated with calls for army reform in FFP and Pheu Thai campaigns ahead of the March 24 elections, the army chief did not hesitate to use the term “scum of the nation” — a political slur popular during the anti-communist era of the 1970s. Worry that the FFP, which is popular with young voters, may be able to form a government spurred him to confront the new face of Thai politics head-on. In doing so, he effectively led the army into politics.
At this stage, Gen Apirat will not back out of politics. But if he does eventually take over the premiership, his ultra-rightist stance which leaves no room for reconciliation would risk plunging the country into deeper political division.