Shock loss means FFP must change tack

Shock loss means FFP must change tack

Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit greets Nakhon Pathom voters on Sept 29. PORNPROM SATRABHAYA
Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit greets Nakhon Pathom voters on Sept 29. PORNPROM SATRABHAYA

The surprising defeat of the Future Forward Party (FFP) in Nakhon Pathom's Constituency 5 by-election on Oct 23 has dealt a blow to the party and, especially, to its billionaire leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.

The party attached special importance to the poll in this mixed rural-urban constituency with about 140,000 eligible voters, to the extent that Mr Thanathorn billed it as a contest of popularity between the government and the opposition camps that would determine the political course of the country.

An over-confident Mr Thanathorn even predicted the party's by-election win would create a domino effect that would eventually lead to the fall of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's administration.

He was proven wrong. The Constituency 5 by-election was definitely not a symbolic contesting ground to determine the popularity of the government and the opposition camps. Neither was it the first domino for the government or the FFP.

It is apparent many opponents of Future Forward feel avenged after the party's election defeat and claim this is a telltale sign of the party's declining popularity.

Others blamed the arrogance of the party's threesome, Mr Thanathorn, party secretary-general Piyabutr Saengkanokkul and spokeswoman Pannika Wanich, for the poll defeat.

Just as this by-election was not a test of popularity between the government and the opposition bloc, neither does it signal the FFP's decline. But it should serve as a wake-up call for the party to reflect on what went wrong with voters who have turned their back on the party. Or what went wrong with the party or its core leaders?

Mr Piyabutr has blamed the defeat on the fact the poll was held on a Wednesday which, although a national holiday, caused many factory workers who are party supporters to miss the election because their factories did not close. That may be partially true. But the winner of the election, Padermchai Sasomsap of the Chartthaipattana Party, won 37,675 votes according to the unofficial count, which is 4,000 votes more than the 34,164 votes won by Jumpita Chantharakachorn, the Future Forward candidate, in the earlier Sunday, March 24 election.

Mr Padermchai, a veteran politician whose family has dominated local and national politics in Nakhon Pathom for decades attributed his comeback win to his old-style door-to-door approach reaching out to voters compared to the FFP's emphasis on campaign rallies and social media.

There is no doubt the FFP has become the party of choice for many new-generation voters who are attracted by the political freshness, outspokenness and charm of its three core leaders. The party has also emerged as an ideological flag bearer for its unwavering advocacy for democracy and constitutional changes.

The party stood out as the only opposition party that voted against the government's executive decree to transfer some army units and budget to a royal security command unit while all the other opposition parties, including Pheu Thai, voted in favour of the decree.

In the debate in parliament, Mr Piyabutr said he agreed with the need for security for the royal family, but he didn't think there was an urgent need for the government to issue an executive decree to facilitate the transfer.

Looking back at the party's performance in the March 24 election, it came third with 81 constituency and party-list House seats after Pheu Thai Party's 136 constituency seats and the Palang Pracharath Party's 116 constituency and party-list seats. Pheu Thai was denied even a single party-list seat because of the distorted seat calculation maths under the mixed-member proportional system.

But as far as the popular vote is concerned, Future Forward received 6.2 million votes compared to Pheu Thai's 7.6 million and Palang Pracharath's 8.4 million. This is quite significant for a new party, with mostly new faces among its election candidates.

To achieve its goals of winning the next election, by-elections or the gubernatorial contest in Bangkok which is yet to be set, the party will have to win the support of more than just new-generation voters.

It must court the more grown-up constituents who may disdain the brashness, outspokenness and arrogance of its leaders -- those who need more than just the same war cry of pro-democracy and anti-military dictatorship to make them switch sides and vote for the party.

Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.

Veera Prateepchaikul

Former Editor

Former Bangkok Post Editor, political commentator and a regular columnist at Post Publishing.

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