Is the Asean bloc under threat?

Is the Asean bloc under threat?

At the recent 35th Asean Summit and Related Summits held in Bangkok from Oct 31 to Nov 5, the international community witnessed evidence of rising instability in power relations between the regional players in Southeast Asia.

India's last-minute withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) pact, US President Donald Trump's absence and the Asean leaders' "no-show" at the 7th Asean-US Summit all made this instability very apparent.

After seven years of lobbying, 28 negotiation rounds, and three summits, once all negotiating parties were finally ready to reach their final conclusion, India stepped away from the RCEP agreement at the very last minute.

The unresolved issue remains the same: fear of too many imported goods circulating in New Delhi's economy.

Additionally, Mr Trump's no-show at the summit for the second consecutive year was unfortunate, as Asean recently adopted the Indo-Pacific Outlook (AOIP) amid escalating US-China tensions.

While his presence could have been an expression of gratitude that Asean took the role of "buffer zone" in the trade war, he only sent a special envoy to represent him.

The Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's invitation for the Premier Li Keqiang of China to attend the 2020 Indo-Pacific Forum on Infrastructure and Connectivity while missing his footprints at the 7th Asean-US Summit was a clear signal of displeasure.

Along with Mr Jokowi, six other leaders were also missing.

Only Laos, Vietnam and Thailand were present.

Of course, they could not be bothered to question the position of Asean in the American Indo-Pacific Strategy.

As Laos, Vietnam and Thailand are in the centre of the region, they have no way to ignore Asean's presence in the Indo-Pacific political landscape.

Equally alarming was Asean Secretary-General Dato Lim Jock Hoi's proposal to form an Asean Secretariat-led "ad hoc" team to prepare Myanmar for the repatriation of the Rohingya based on the Preliminary Needs Assessment (PNA) report of the Asean Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre).

In past years, Asean has been involved in the deployment of humanitarian assistance, showing active leadership in solving the crisis through confidence and trust-building with its Myanmar counterparts.

Implemented in late 2018, the AHA Centre has played a crucial role in assessing the needs of returning Rohingya.

But after two trials, no refugees were brave enough to hop on the bus to return to their countries of origin.

Speaking at the Asean-UN Summit, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres again called for a "conducive environment for safe, voluntary, dignified and sustainable repatriation".

Asean has generally been successful in encouraging gradual progress through its "constructive engagement" diplomacy.

A year after Asean held talks with Myanmar in 1991, the country decided to return thousands of Rohingya fleeing Bangladesh.

Within a time span of 26 years (1991-2017), Asean's engagement with Myanmar has gradually helped the Myanmar government take a less ignorant approach, in which it has started to recognise the problem and has started opening its door by asking for ASEAN-led assistance.

But whether the "Asean way" could create a safe and peaceful environment in a member state's domestic affairs is perhaps a litmus test for the bloc.

A positive takeaway from the summit was the revival of the interface meeting with representatives from the Asean Civil Society Conference/Asean People's Forum, which was attended by seven Asean foreign ministers, not including ministers from Brunei, Laos and Singapore.

The meeting showed a step forward in inclusiveness, flagging Asean's people-oriented and people-centred banner after said forum was left dormant for five years.

Either all of these incidents reflect the fragility in Asean regionalism or a weakening of the Asean-led mechanism.

It may be both if no member country takes leadership to drive forward the concept of Asean centrality, so that the term is not left as jargon.

In the past, Indonesia always took the initiative as a calmer of tensions or mediator to normalise inter- and intra-Asean relationships.

Examples Indonesia's mediation include its shuttle diplomacy in the South China Sea and its handling of the Preah Vihear territorial dispute along the Thai-Cambodian border.

Amid an increase in inward-looking foreign policies, Indonesia's leadership role seems to be fading. If Asean's member states are to maintain their significance in the changing regional landscape, one thing is for sure; safeguarding a "dynamic equilibrium" between all mechanisms remains essential to the organisation's relevance.

Dio Tobing is the founder and associate fellow of the Centre of Politics and Transnationalism of Policylab, a Jakarta-based think tank and academy in Indonesia.

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