After the Constitutional Court's controversial verdict disqualifying Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit over the V-Luck shares saga, a domino effect for the business-tycoon-turned-politician and his party looks to be on the horizon.
The Election Commission (EC) is in the process of laying criminal charges against the FFP leader for violating Section 151 of the law on the election of MPs.
Section 151 stipulates that those who apply to be MPs despite realising that they fail to qualify under the law could face a jail term of up to 10 years, a fine of between 20,000 and 200,000 baht and also may have their voting rights suspended for 20 years.
The EC's inquiry committee is looking into the matter, using the Nov 19 verdict as grounds to criminally prosecute the FFP leader. The poll agency is to forward the case to the Criminal Court on Election Cases although it may not be finalised until the middle of next year.
If found guilty, Mr Thanathorn could be banned from politics for 20 years, plus have his voting rights revoked. In addition to the loss of his MP status, a criminal offence could land him in prison.
There is wide speculation about a possible FFP dissolution. While FFP members may be able to escape the political slaughter by moving to other parties, its executives, like Piyabutr Saengkanokkul and Pannika Wanich, could face similarly harsh consequences, possibly including being stripped of their voting rights and hit with a 10-year political ban.
It is not disputable that Mr Thanathorn's predicament is linked with his challenge to the powers-that-be in the army, the judicial system and the country's oligarchy. Neither is it disputable that the FFP and its members have not been politically prudent enough, and have instead pushed themselves into political traps set by the coup-sponsored charter and related laws. As a party with aspirations of change, FFP members should have been aware of the might of their rivals and a fierce return of fire in the form of legal nitpicking which carries disproportionately severe penalties. These mistakes can be attributed to the party's youth and, at times, reckless exuberance.
Not to mention that the FFP still has to deal with complaints concerning Mr Thanathorn's loans to the party worth over 100 million baht. Furthermore, there is also a controversy involving 17.2 million baht in donations to the party he and his wife made. The election law prohibits a donor from giving more than 10 million baht to a party.
All these blunders put the popular party at risk of dissolution. If that is the case, core party members will be gone while some of the remaining 80 party members may try to survive by moving to the parties in the Palang Pracharath-led coalition.
Unlike the now-defunct Thai Rak Thai and People's Power parties, the Future Forward Party is a new entity and has no second or third generations of leaders to carry on its political mission.
While the charter court's verdict spared some of Mr Thanathorn political status -- his candidacy for premiership endorsed by the opposition bloc and his advisory position on a house committee examining the budget bill both remain valid -- his political future has dimmed. If the court strips him of election rights for 20 years, he cannot set up a new party, nor can he run in an election, even a gubernatorial contest. What he can do is to work to build up a network of alliances outside parliament.
The FFP needs to think about creating its next generation of core leaders should both Mr Thanathorn and Mr Piyabutr be forced to exit. It should be noted that there was speculation that veteran politician Chaturon Chaisang could pick up the baton and carry on the FFP's mission after he joined a series of FFP activities over the past months.
In fact, Mr Chaturon is a good choice for a new party given his political progressiveness and unwavering pro-democracy stance. Despite his background as a core member of the Pheu Thai, he is not among Thaksin Shinawatra's "heirs apparent", and has his own way of thinking. In the previous election, he was assigned to form the Thai Raksa Chart Party, which was dissolved over its controversial choice of prime ministerial candidate.
But sources close to Mr Chaturon said things may not be easy, especially if the FFP is eventually dissolved. There remain pressing questions, for example: Can a new party remain strong? Will Mr Thanathorn continue his financial support? And could it, with an altered ideology, still entice the young?
At the same time, a Pheu Thai source is not optimistic about the FFP's future, saying any new party would experience a similar predicament. If that is the case, it will weaken the opposition bloc and its checks and balances mechanism will be compromised.
The FFP must learn a valuable lesson from Mr Thanathorn's fate -- that fighting against the traditionalists must be gradual, especially when a party lacks political manoeuvrability. In pushing for change, the party should have garnered public support and tried to avoid a head-on collision with the powers-that-be. Going against the flow unbendingly, or in the party's own term yoo mai pen, has only triggered fierce repercussions from mighty rivals that may eventually result in its premature downfall.