Prospects of a bumpy year ahead

Prospects of a bumpy year ahead

New Year is a week from now. But it won't be a happy New Year for quite a few of us, especially grassroots people such as farmers and blue-collar workers.

Economic performance for 2019 has been disappointing. A combination of the global economic slowdown, trade tensions between China and the United States and an unusually strong baht have badly affected Thai exports, the main engine driving economic growth, forcing research houses to periodically write down their growth projections.

All the stimulus packages launched by the government in the hope they would encourage people to spend more have not produced the required result.

Because most people, the grassroots and middle income earners, simply do not have the purchasing power.

Many factories have closed, sending tens of thousands of Thai workers and migrant workers back home.

The real figures of factory closures and laid-off workers are not available from any government agency.

Worse is yet to come. The long period of the dry season characterised by the early arrival of the drought which is already drying up many rivers and reservoirs in the northern, northeastern and central regions is expected to bring more economic woe and suffering to farming households.

The Royal Irrigation Department has sent a warning signal about the drought next year which it says will be more severe than the past year. For the Chao Phraya River basin, the country's main rice bowl, the department said there is enough water for consumption and ecological preservation; but forget about second rice crop cultivation.

But many farmers still defy the warnings. About one million rai of the basin area have been cultivated in rice crops. They can hardly be blamed because this is their main source of income.

Without water for months during the long hot summer, rice crops in areas not covered by irrigation systems and fruit trees will face certain death. So, where will the farmers go to make a living or feed their families?

Bangkokians and those living in big cities are comparatively luckier than farmers because they still have tap water even if some are jobless. They don't have to struggle to find water like the rural folk.

But the impacts from drought can be relieved if the government handles the problem effectively, which means they must have contingency plans in place which can be implemented when needed.

Economy-wise, the coming year appears to hold out gloomy, if not critical prospects for grassroots people and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) which do not have strong financial backing.

The political temperature is expected to rise a few notches in conjunction with the hot weather early next year. There is fear in some sectors that the political situation may turn violent with increased street politics provoked by the problems associated with the Future Forward Party (FFP).

The first is the fate of the party as to whether it will be dissolved by the Constitutional Court over the 191-million-baht loan extended to the party by its leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.

There are two opinions on the case, with one suggesting the party will be spared dissolution, but with Mr Thanathorn and the party's executive committee are expected to be banished from politics; while the other believing that both the party and the executive committee as well as Mr Thanathorn are finished.

The verdict, whichever way it goes, will anger party supporters and may drive them to take to the streets. I doubt the verdict will lead to mass protests although many people may disagree with the court and have sympathy for the party.

The Pathumwan skywalk protest on Dec 14, which drew a few thousand FFP supporters, may be a good start as suggested by party supporters. However, I believe they are still a long way from getting the mass support needed to affect political change.

The FFP made one big blunder in crossing the line in organising the skywalk protest, which is against the Political Parties Act and could result in the party's dissolution, with imprisonment for the offenders.

Charges against the party for violations of the public assembly law are likely, with key members having been called in to meet police.

As far as the government is concerned, its simple majority in the House will be strengthened slightly, thanks to the defection of four FFP MPs expelled from the party for rebellion.

The government can also rely on the support of 5-6 MPs from the opposition New Economics party, which I prefer to call a "reluctant opposition" party.

Again, the Palang Pracharath Party, the main government party, will still need to keep a lot of "bananas" handy for some naughty "monkeys" (a reference by one government figure to MPs which need to be kept under control). The government's stability will depend on how it performs, especially on pressing issues such as economic and drought issues.

Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.

Veera Prateepchaikul

Former Editor

Former Bangkok Post Editor, political commentator and a regular columnist at Post Publishing.

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