The new year has begun with intensifying political confrontation, a consequence of a move to disband the Future Forward Party, which fought back by mobilising street demonstrations. The party's struggle has won substantial support as it is believed that charges against party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit are politically motivated. It is evident that the army under Gen Apirat Kongsompong is paranoid with Mr Thanathorn's move and it should be noted that a growing number of incidents which will raise the political temperature are set to take place this month.
The first is the anti-government run -- wing lai loong -- initiated by student activists and FFP supporters and set to be held on Jan 12 at the State Railways Park. It is estimated that several thousand will participate in the high-profile run, which is a sequel to the FFP's "flash mob" last year.
On Jan 21, the Constitutional Court will open the hearing for a case in which the FFP is charged with undermining the country's democratic system. Even though the court has yet to decide when it will issue the verdict for Mr Thanathorn's 191-million-baht loan, the act has been deemed illegal in accordance with the Political Parties Act, it is expected that the ruling will come later next month.
Meanwhile, the parliament will likely experience turbulent times later this month when the opposition calls for a no-confidence debate against the Prayut Chan-o-cha coalition government, the first of debate in six years after the 2014 coup.
Initially, the opposition bloc said it will target five cabinet members, including PM Prayut and DPM Somkid Jatusripitak, leader of the government's economic team. Even though the remaining three ministers to be grilled are still unknown according to parliamentary procedure, the opposition has to file a motion with the House Speaker. The opposition is ready to open the government's political wounds over its incompetence and failure in tackling corruption, a breach of Gen Prayut's graft-fighting pledge.
Needless to say, the case regarding FFP's dissolution will stir up political conflicts as FFP supporters are increasingly upset with independent agencies. However, at the same time, Mr Thanathorn will face criticism for igniting street protests which put the country at risk of widening polarisation and instigating violence which may have led to casualties and loss. If that happens, the party will unavoidably face a setback. Nevertheless, FFP secretary-general Piyabutr Saengkanokkul has vowed to fight inside and outside the parliament, saying: "2020 will be the year of struggle involving the majority, the ordinary people. [It's the time when] the owners of the country are to fight against the powers-that-be and establish new power for all."
Apart from the FFP's dissolution, the issue of the charter amendment has also sent the political temperature simmering now that a House panel tasked with studying the revision has started its mission, encouraging a discussion about the flaws of the military-sponsored constitution.
The year 2020 will undoubtedly see the move -- in and outside of parliament -- to invalidate the government's legitimacy gain momentum, particularly with the focus on the way the military has prolonged its power and its failure to improve the economy.
We have to admit that political instability related to the razor-thin majority is no longer an immediate concern for the Prayut coalition after the FFP booted out four members following the "cobra" incident. The four are expected to move to coalition parties sometime soon, meaning its strength is solidified with another four votes in its favour.
In addition, the opposition bloc has suffered two consecutive losses in by-elections, one in Nakhon Pathom where the Chart Thai Pattana party beat its FFP rival and the other in Khon Kaen which saw the ruling Palang Pracharath outperform the Pheu Thai Party last month. Such victories are meaningful psychologically as the government may claim that public support remains strong. Realistically though, such triumphs indeed do make the coalition stronger as it widens the vote margin by 255 vs 240.
While parliamentary politics are seemingly become more favourable to the coalition, a risk factor that could be a break or make for Gen Prayut involves the setback of the economic slowdown if his team continues to fail in tackling it. Under such conditions, a large number of people in the middle class who are his supporters will feel the pinch of economic decline. Several factories have been closed with reports about people committing suicide due to losses. Companies are operating through a difficult time without giving a raise or bonuses to staff while the cost of living keeps surging. There is little hope as the prospects for the 2020 world economy remains dim.
There are also concerns as several companies have the tendency to reduce production capacity. Unable to cope with the disruptive economy, some establishments have to cut expenses by slashing overtime pay while others have to opt for partial layoffs. Grim prospects about drought will only aggravate the problem.
Moreover, as the water levels in several large dams have depleted, the government has instructed rice farmers to save water by refraining from second-crop farming. Such instruction is a heavy blow as the drought-related effects will result in lower farm productivity which in turn will affect the price of consumer goods.
If the economic slump this year turns into a crisis, the disapproval of Gen Prayut, especially among grassroots and the middle class, will grow while internal conflicts among the coalition parties will remain with each party maximising political gains amid the belief that the coalition is short-lived. The Prayut government is so fragile that another graft scandal or new bickering over cabinet reshuffle might trigger a collapse.