The surprise departure of Korn Chatikavanij from the Democrats deals a heavy blow to the oldest political party which was already struggling in an unfavourable political atmosphere. The bold move, however, gives the prominent politician a new opportunity with speculation rife he is about to found a new party. Political observers also foresee the possibility of Mr Korn becoming a new choice for PM in the next election.
His resignation, while a shock to many, had been well planned after his role in the party was virtually eclipsed when Jurin Laksanavisit was made leader, replacing Abhisit Vejjajiva who stepped down after the March 24 election defeat. Mr Jurin led the party to join the coalition, a controversial decision opposed by Mr Abhisit.
Mr Korn is not only a quality politician but the "brain" of the Democrats. He was finance minister during the Abhisit-led government. Foreign media included him in a list of the top world finance ministers in 2010 and Banker Magazine named him Asia's Finance Minister of the Year for his role in shoring up Thailand's economy.
He acted as the party's policy chief in the March 24 election, and he touted a "poverty eradication, human resources development and country strengthening" programme during the campaign. He was also one of the four candidates who vied for the party leadership in the post-Abhisit era. Since then, the Democrats have bypassed him, giving him no elevated role in either the party or the coalition, leaving him in place as deputy economic policy chief. There are reports that he had a deep interest in joining the forthcoming gubernatorial election but the party's backing was lukewarm, and it merely appointed him as deputy head of the candidate screening panel.
The Democrats under Mr Jurin have seen power shift away from the Abhisit faction, with 30-50 members, to its new leader who enjoys strong support from Chuan Leekpai, the party chief adviser, and politicians from the southern regions. Those belonging to the Abhisit faction have little to do except criticise the government. It's like they are a mini-opposition within the party.
Mr Korn fully realises he no longer has a future with the Democrats. According to party tradition, those belonging to past leaderships rarely have a chance to return to power. In fact, Mr Korn's resignation could be good for Mr Jurin as he will no longer have to worry about one of his rivals. The Democrat leader gave a couldn't-care-less response to Mr Korn's departure, saying that many people still wanted to join the party.
But Mr Korn's resignation really is a loss. Since Mr Jurin became leader, the Democrats have experienced severe "bleeding" with a number of heavyweights successively bowing out. One case in point is the exit of Pirapan Salirathavibhaga who defected to the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and was made the prime minister's adviser. His departure followed that of Warong Dechgitvigrom who resigned last month to join the Action Coalition for Thailand, which sprung from the ashes of the PDRC party, under former Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban. Mr Warong took a strategic position in the Suthep party, also a coalition partner.
What remains to be seen is whether the Democrat Party under Mr Jurin can regain its strength and whether the coalition partnership with portfolios in major ministries, namely Agriculture and Commerce, will be of any help or merely weaken it further given the fact that major rivals that took away the party's support, including the PPRP and the Suthep party, remain strong. The Bhumjaithai's performance in the southern region, a typical stronghold of the Democrats, gets better day by day. If Mr Korn can set up his own party, it will attract some of the Democrats' supporters, especially the intellectuals and those in the younger generations.
The prospects of Mr Korn having his own party are more than bright regarding the fact that under the current constitution, small parties can easily be formed because of an electoral system that works in their favour. Especially if they have a small group of political celebs and well-known faces, and can formulate "niche" policies that attract specific groups. As we saw in the March 24 poll, a party that wins 33,000 votes can grab one parliamentary seat. This effectively explains why 12 micro, single-seat parties, and nine under-10-seat parties were able to make their way into parliament. Like it or not, this constitution will be effective for a while as it was written in a way that makes amendment almost impossible.
With such a charter, there emerged a new election model: a party with a prominent figure as its leader and with a vibrant performance in the final round of a poll campaign can, despite only deploying a minimal budget, become a winner. Several parties became successful using this model, such as the New Economics Party under Mingkwan Saengsuwan, which grabbed six seats, despite a short campaign.
More importantly, new business groups are looking for a chance to provide support to emerging political parties. The energy group has backed Chadchart Sittipunt, for example, in his new political aspiration. Although Mr Chadchart dismissed rumours that he has extended his hand to Mr Korn, the prospect of the two prominent politicians working together on a new political venture cannot be ruled out.
In addition, it's evident that Mr Korn is a favourite choice not only among younger voters and those in the middle class but also among economic startup groups, as well as those in the fintech realm. Don't forget that Mr Korn was formerly chairman of the Thai Fintech Association for three years. He also sneaked into the farming sector, with the impressive Kaset Kemkaeng and Khao-im projects. In the education sector, he promoted "English For All" for students in the provinces.
As a rough calculation, given his calibre and profile, it's not too difficult to imagine Mr Korn gathering some 10-20 MPs.
It is widely speculated that the Prayut Chan-o-cha government may not survive for long as a result of disunity in the coalition as well as rising resistance against him.
Under such circumstances, another election may take place in a year or two, at which time the PPRP may also change its leader. Until then, it's possible that those who are fed up with political polarisation may look for new options in the new election and this means a better chance for smaller parties like the one that Mr Korn could form.
Before the next national election comes around, however, Mr Korn's new party might test the waters by fielding a candidate for Bangkok governor to acquaint city voters with his party and policies.
If the old politics of two rivals stuck in a tug-of-war faces a dead end, there is a chance Mr Korn could step in as PM. Yet, that scenario will not materialise easily as the ruling party still has strong backing from regime-appointed elements in parliament.