What might have been at Vegas summit

What might have been at Vegas summit

The Asean officials preparing for the March 14 special Asean-US Summit were greatly relieved when the White House announced on Friday that the Las Vegas rendezvous would be postponed due to Covid-19 fears. Indeed, with exactly two weeks to go before the event, the Asean side was still wondering what the "deliverable milestones" of their summit were likely to be.

After all, the draft of the joint statement, the most important outcome document, between the US and Asean that was expected to come out at the end of the summit was not yet in circulation for comment. And judging by the tentative agenda for March 14, it seemed President Donald Trump was betting on a transactional negotiating game with all the individual members rather than treating Asean as a group of 10. Apart from the two-hour working dinner, most of the daytime would be spent on bilateral meetings with each of the Asean leaders.

Late last month, Malaysia confirmed that its head of state would not attend the summit and instead assigned a low-ranking official at the permanent secretary level. That was before the current political crisis over who would be the next Malaysian prime minister. Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte was also to be absent from Las Vegas due to quarrels with the US over visa restrictions, human rights violation and drug suppression, not to mention the recent annulled security pact.

Back in November during the Thai chairmanship, these two Asean members reacted strongly, calling for a boycott after the White House decided to send a low level and non-cabinet member, National Security Council Chief, Robert O'Brien, to represent Mr Trump at the Asean-related meetings.

More than the US officials would like to admit, Asean-US ties reached their zenith under the Obama administration, which translated into a 17-point document, known as the Sunnylands Declaration. It quite literally covered the whole gamut of a 43-year partnership which began in earnest in 1977.

In an attempt to outdo the 2016 living document, Mr Trump's close aides have apparently decided to go for a series of deals with each Asean member playing on strengths and weaknesses. It might work but equally, it might not. One Asean diplomat has even characterised the delayed summit as a "divide and reward" session.

Under Mr Trump, every trade figure with foreign countries must be translated into numbers of jobs for the Americans. So it is customary to say that US exports to the Mekong countries have created more than 1.4 million American jobs since 1999. All the Asean countries export to the US market, which is their biggest consumer. Mr Trump knows that the best way to win the upcoming presidential election is to show the American voters that those friends and allies with a healthy trade surplus need to pay and do more to contribute to the America First policy. It is no coincidence that Nevada will remain the venue site for the summit if and when it does take place. This state is considered a high-stakes battleground in the November presidential election.

Back to back with the special Asean-US meeting, the host was planning a summit for the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) which was launched by the Obama administration in 2009. Mr Trump's top aides have decided to top the existing project under his much-hated predecessor by elevating it to summit level.

Doubtless, efforts to highlight the Mekong subregion's significance and its future implications for the broader region between the US and lower Mekong riparian countries were deliberated to create a "niche" at Las Vegas. The LMI was supposed to help these riparian countries deal with challenges of water security, smart hydropower, energy and infrastructure planning, but in reality has seen few accomplishments.

Washington often hails its accomplishments in the Mekong and the population living there such as giving 340,000 people access to clean drinking water and improving sanitation for a further 27,000, as well as raising technical English standards for nearly 4,000 officials, teachers and students from the Mekong region, among others. Other programmes such as the Mekong Water Data Initiative, the Sustainable Infrastructure Partnership and the LMI Quality Infrastructure Training Programme and the LMI Young Scientist Programme have not fulfilled their objectives.

In Las Vegas, Mr Trump was supposed to focus on the issues related to debt dependency, dam-building and governance. Furthermore, the US would also be trying to further strengthen its cooperation with the "Friends of the Lower Mekong", which comprises Australia, the EU, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea along with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank.

Expanding US engagement in the Mekong would now include promoting infrastructure, energy and the digital economy. Although the Trump administration informed Asean leaders that Congress would provide around US$45 million for the development projects, in reality, tangible outcomes, especially funding, are not visible. By contrast, the Mekong Fund under the Lancang Mekong Cooperation (LMC) has already given a large amount of funding to promote the development in the Mekong Region. For instance, since 2016 Cambodian alone has already taken up 35 projects worth well over US$10 million to promote agricultural, tourism, ICT, water resources and people to people exchange.

Truth be told, lots of good programmes under the Obama administration could be further strengthened under Mr Trump. Obviously American officials working for Mr Trump want to create new narratives on Asean-US relations without referring to the Obama era and his legacy. It is not possible as Mr Trump has never made any commitment to benefit Asean as a whole. Now, 236 days before his presidency expires, he has still not had any meaningful meeting with the Asean 10. Yet he wants to make a difference in Asean under his watch.

When the Asean foreign ministers met at a retreat in mid-January in Nha Trang, Asean was not so sure that the planned summit proposed by Mr Trump would take place as the impeachment trial was proceeding, not to mention the global threat of Covid-19. Obviously, Mr Trump wants to co-opt Asean using his style of personal diplomacy focusing on bilateralism rather than multilateralism. Senior Asean officials have reminded their leaders to stay united and not let the US president divide Asean.

If the Las Vegas summit takes place as planned, it would certainly internationalise the politics, security and economics of the Mekong region in a way that has not previously been seen. In 2010 in Hanoi, the South China Sea dispute received international headlines and has risen to global attention ever since Washington made its views known. In a similar vein, the US will attempt to pull the same trigger to transform the Mekong subregion into a new strategic competing ground for the US and its friends vis-à-vis the ever-expansive LMC and its broad networks.

Kavi Chongkittavorn

A veteran journalist on regional affairs

Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs

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