If things go as planned, we will see parts of the country reopened in less than a week after the continuing diminution of coronavirus cases.
It is expected that the government will ease measures aimed at curbing the virus from May 1. But the decision will be based on one condition: That the infection rate remains low or drops further.
During the one month and four days since the country was locked down on March 26, we've managed to reduce the daily number of new cases to just 15 yesterday, after recording up to 188 earlier this month. Accumulated cases now stand at slightly above 2,000 against a previous worst-case forecast of more than 350,000 by mid-April.
It is highly likely that a step-by-step easing of restrictions will begin in three or four of the nine provinces that have yet to report a single infection. If a success, the reopening will be extended to 38 more provinces that see no new cases over a two-week period. But Covid-19 hotspots like Bangkok, Nonthaburi and Phuket will likely remain under strict control at least until mid-May or early June.
On the plus side, the relaxation of measures will help ease public stress, giving an opportunity for people to "breathe" and the economy to rebound, with people resuming their jobs and earning income.
But we should be extremely wary of a second wave of mass infections as seen recently in Japan and Singapore. We may experience the same problem.
Thailand has seen a drastic decrease in new infections because of the government's strict lockdown, agile medical teams and public cooperation with social distancing and stay-at-home protocols. With 50 deaths, we have a low fatality rate at 1.7% of the total number of infections, yet this "success" has come at a heavy cost to many.
Many of those not infected with Covid-19 have lost their jobs and become penniless, while most trading has been suspended. People being laid off cannot seek a new job as almost all businesses are closed down.
It is estimated that 10 million have been laid off during the pandemic. The 5,000-baht relief handout for three months will hardly sustain the families of 14 million people. Worse, those on the lower rungs of society are lacking access to all of the relief. More and more people have decided to commit suicide.
An eased lockdown is becoming inevitable. But members of the public will have to maintain healthy practices, wearing a face mask, washing their hands and keeping their distance at least until a coronavirus vaccine become available, hopefully next year.
I personally believe that we've learned from the lockdown. We've adapted and changed our lifestyle to keep Covid-19 away. Face masks have become a necessity when going outside, or even at home. A number of provinces -- Phuket, Nakhon Ratchasima, Samut Sakhon, Chantaburi, Pattani and Surin -- make face mask wearing mandatory. Violators can be fined.
If we are disciplined enough, Thailand will soon recover from the pandemic. Like CCSA spokesman Taweesilp Visanuyothin often says: "Never lower your guard." Otherwise we will go back to square one, with new lockdown measures that make everyone once again suffer.
And there are some causes for concern if the government relax its measures.
To begin with, the monsoon season is fast approaching. Floods and rains with high humidity provide the perfect conditions for the virus to spread. Typically, this is the season when respiratory illnesses are high. Coronavirus is no exception. According to Mahidol University's Medicine Faculty, it's not unusual that many people who develop flu-like symptoms don't seek treatment. This is dangerous in the Covid-19 era, since some may mistake the dreadful virus for the ordinary flu. To prevent that scenario from playing out, the country has to strengthen its testing capacity from 3,000 currently to 25,000 a day.
Another risk factor is Thai returnees. It is reported that over 8,900 are waiting to come home next month. Many are coming from virus hotspots: The US (1,950), India (600+) and Indonesia (500+). We have to ensure that strict measures are kept intact or we may face another surge in infections.
Moreover, even if we are to ease the restrictions, with markets and shops reopening, such important measures like social distancing must be strictly observed. Otherwise, these places may end up becoming super spreaders like Lumpinee Boxing stadium or a Thonglor pub.
We cannot be complacent on account of the low infection rate given the fact that the number of tests, 142,589 as of April 20, is low compared to other countries. The low infection rates presented in daily CCSA press conferences may not necessarily reflect the real numbers. Lest we forget, there are a large number of asymptomatic people who can still unknowingly transmit the disease to those around them.
Last but not least, to successfully overcome Covid-19 without an economic contraction, we need cooperation from every single member of society. If not, another lockdown is inevitable. If that is the case, we will be trapped in another nightmare, with no jobs or money.