The cabinet took an unnecessary risk when it decided last Tuesday to maintain the public holidays this month against the recommendation of the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA).
The centre, which is also chaired by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, was concerned the extended holidays -- six days altogether, including May Day on May 1, Coronation Day on May 4 and Visakha Bucha day on May 6 plus another day on May 5 when most office workers are also likely to take a day off -- would encourage a mass exodus of people from Bangkok, and potentially lead to the virus spreading further.
The cabinet decided that despite the extended holidays most people would opt to stay at home and refrain from travelling, so there would be no increased risk of person-to-person transmission. They were wrong.
Whether this decision will lead to the eruption of a second wave of infections as feared by medical professionals remains to be seen.
We must wait 14 days -- the incubation period for the virus before it exhibits symptoms. All eyes will be on the upcountry provinces, especially the nine provinces which have, so far, been spared the scourge and those which have reported zero new infections for the past 14-28 days.
The extended holiday coincides with the relaxation of lockdown restrictions in Bangkok and many other provinces nationwide which started yesterday.
The cabinet appears to have misjudged the mood of the people who have been forced to stay at home and have been unable to enjoy freedom of movement for more than a month, or those yearning to return home, but unable to do so due to the lockdown measures.
The combination of these two factors amounted to an opening of the floodgates. In fact, a mass exodus ensued even before the start of the formal relaxation of lockdown restrictions yesterday.
The Friendship Highway, the main artery to the Northeast, was jammed by cars bumper to bumper in Pak Chong district of Nakhon Ratchasima on Friday. The Highways Department reported a 100% increase in traffic compared to a normal Friday.
The cabinet panicked the following day. A deputy government spokeswoman and other senior officials called on people to stay at home during the long weekend. Sorry, too late; the floodgate had burst.
Reports of people flocking to Nong Mon market in Chon Buri to buy dried seafood and khao larm (sweetened sticky rice soaked with coconut milk stuffed in bamboo) and visiting the seafood market in Samut Sakhon appeared in mainstream media.
Many were ignoring social distancing although most shoppers and traders could be seen wearing face masks.
Have we forgotten the lesson learned when, only a month ago, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration imposed lockdown measures by closing several retail businesses and prohibiting recreational activities? At that time travel restrictions had yet to be imposed.
Tens of thousands of migrant workers who suddenly found themselves without jobs and out of money to pay their rent headed home to upcountry provinces. This first large exodus from the capital was a big mistake and resulted in the spread of the virus to the provinces.
It was followed by two cluster infections involving Lumpinee Boxing Stadium and a Thong Lor pub, and also contagion among Thais who returned from overseas in the early stages of the outbreak.
There is no doubt the lockdown restrictions have damaged the economy, leading to hardship for people and disrupting their normal lives even more so than the coronavirus itself.
The lockdown restrictions need to be eased gradually and cautiously so as not to repeat the mistakes of Singapore or Hokkaido which are facing a second wave of the pandemic due to rushed decisions to abandon the restrictions.
The government must find the right balance between saving lives and saving the economy. In the meantime, no more mistakes.
For the time being, we must be as vigilant as before with our guard up as we wait and see, for the next 14 days, whether we are still going in the right direction to contain the virus after repeated mistakes arising from foolishness, complacency, ignorance or misjudgement.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.