Should an optimist seek any positive outcome from the Covid-19 crisis, it would not be too surprising if the answer steered towards the favourable effect on the environment.
China, the world's biggest polluter, saw its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions falling more than 18% between February and March alone and particulate matter (PM) declining by 35%. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a lung-effecting gas produced during combustion, fell by 60% in the US, Europe and China.
Moreover, posts of clean canals in Italy or images of the spotting of rare, wild animals have erupted on social media.
Such figures underscore the environmental analyst Lester Brown's hypothesis of a "stressed relationship" between the economy and the earth's natural system. When the economy blooms, the ecosystem fails and tragedies such as the death of plastic-ingesting dugongs become ubiquitous. On the other hand, the interim triumph of the ecosystem today flourishes at the expense of the crumbling economy.
Today, as the "new normal" approaches and the country is in a steady process of reviving and resetting the economy, we must not allow this "stressed relationship" to return.
This post Covid-19 world could play out in two potential scenarios.
The first scenario we could see is the abrupt resumption of the "economy first, all things (including the environment) later" mentality in which the transient environmental gains dissipate as pollution kicks back rapidly. Further, many argue that not only would emissions rekindled to pre-coronavirus levels, but they would surge higher than before. This is the "revenge pollution" phenomenon and in China, between 2008 and 2013, there is a precedent for it.
In response to the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese government launched a $586 billion stimulus package which focused on large-scale infrastructure projects. It led to years of Chinese industries galloping through their activities and, consequently, their emissions rates leapt. This culminated in the infamous smog or "air-pocalypse" in urban centres, namely Beijing, in the winter of 2012-13.
The second scenario is where we study the Chinese precedent to avoid this "revenge pollution", as well as prepare to turn the pandemic into an opportunity. As the economy restarts with new norms and rules, allowing the impossible to become possible, it is the best time for the green agenda to be included and incorporated into the national agenda. In this scenario, the "new normal" is also the "green new normal".
Reaching the "green new normal" can be achieved under the concept of 3As: Ascension, Assimilation and Acceleration.
Ascension: There is no doubt that the trend towards the green economy will proliferate globally and Thailand must jump on the bandwagon. It is of utmost importance that we ascend to be a global leader in certain compartments of this green economy. We need to be bold and bet on an industry where we enjoy comparative advantage.
While the solar photovoltaic (PV) panel industry is an attractive option due to its ever-increasing popularity, our capacity, from the number of specialised workforce personnel to the supply of domestic raw materials, eg silicon, must be assessed.
Thorough consideration should be given to the bio-economy industry that boasts the trinity of bioenergy, biochemicals and biopharmaceuticals.
Our comparative advantage goes no further than the fact that we possess the raw materials essential for this industry. We are the third-largest producer of palm oil, the fourth-largest producer and second-largest exporter of sugar, as well as contributing over half of the world's cassava supply.
While there are existing incentives from the Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI), such as exemptions from corporate tax (five to eight years) and import duty, as well as commitments towards research and development, further initiatives can be taken. Stimulating the demand for end products is mandatory to bolster market competitiveness and attrac- tiveness.
This includes increasing the feed-in tariff rate for biogas, currently at 5.35 baht/kWh compared to 6.85 baht/kWh for solar and 6.06 baht/kWh for wind, further subsidising compostable plastics to make them price competitive with traditional polymers, as well as vigorously promoting high-value-added products (HVA) such as "phase-change material" (PCM), which are derived from palm oil and can be used as building materials.
Assimilation: The post Covid-19 "new normal" may also be a fitting time for certain reforms in governance. The satisfactory displays of many provinces' approaches to the pandemic may increase calls for further decentralisation. It is vital for the green agenda not to miss the bus.
An initiative that should be thrust into these reforms is "green budgeting", which is to assimilate environmental considerations into fiscal frameworks. This could be through directly linking each ministry's commitments to the green agenda, quantifiable by the amount of emissions saved, to the appropriations of budget. Simply, the more emissions avoided from the policies, the more money that would be received. This is akin to the concept of the already-existing Gender Responsive Budgeting (GRB), set up to promote gender equality.
Acceleration: This is the most obvious and resides in the department of "easier said than done". It is to recognise the urgency of our environmental problems and acknowledge the need for an accelerator in progressing towards clean and sustainable development.
A "carrot and stick" approach may be suitable. While Thailand is not shy of the "carrot", or the encouragement of clean energy, with the Power Development Plan (PDP) neatly laying out a roadmap for the government's support of renewable energy, we are quite deficient in the "stick", or forestalling polluting sources.
A serious assessment of the carbon tax, a market-correcting and behaviour-changing tool, is necessary and is to apply to both large and small producers. Polluters have had a "free ride" for far too long from not fully paying their true costs.
The post-Covid-19 "new normal" presents a unique opportunity for the emergence of new ways and ideas, and for smart adaptations. It is also an opportunity to "right the wrong", which in this case is easing and synergising the "stressed relationship" between the economy and ecology.
With bold, innovative, and effective policies by both the government and private sector, the persistent clashes between them of yesteryear can be averted and they can prosper together, side by side.
Pornphrom Vikitsreth is a lecturer, Faculty of Liberal Arts, Thammasat University.