The other C-word: Climate

The other C-word: Climate

As the world has been gripped by the prolonged Covid-19 pandemic, the dramatic slowdown in economic activity has resulted in cleaner air to breathe in traffic-congested Bangkok and other big cities worldwide.

It was also heartening to hear China's pledge last week to stick to its commitments on climate change despite the economic shock of recent months. But analysts caution that China -- the world's biggest emitter of greenhouses gases (GHG) and biggest user of coal -- could struggle to meet its climate pledges this year as it turns to heavy industry and carbon-intensive projects to revive its stricken economy.

Under its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) on climate change, Beijing has pledged to cut carbon intensity -- carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) -- by 40-45% from 2005 to 2020 as part of the Paris climate agreement it signed in 2015. Environment ministry data showed that carbon intensity was reduced by 4.1% in 2019 from the previous year.

"China's carbon emission reduction will not change with the occurrence of the epidemic," said Liu Youbin, a spokesman for the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, adding that the country would "100%" fulfil its NDC commitment.

Beijing's commitment is critical, especially in light of new research released last week by the World Resources Institute. It showed that the world's tropical rainforests disappeared at a rate of one football pitch every six seconds last year. All told, 3.8 million hectares of tropical primary forest fell victim to agricultural expansion, wildfires, logging, mining and population growth, among other factors.

Mikaela Weisse, a project manager at the monitoring service Global Forest Watch, says the disappearance of primary forests is one of the biggest threats to biodiversity. Cutting down forests also has major implications for global goals to curb climate change, as trees absorb about a third of the planet-warming GHG emissions.

In the short term, she warns, the preoccupation of authorities with the coronavirus may weaken enforcement of forest laws, with people taking advantage of that to commit environmental crimes. In the medium term, economic stress could increase pressure to allow extractive industries in forests or larger-scale agriculture.

Workers coming home from cities after losing jobs could also turn to forests to help feed their families, increasing the risk of deforestation, said Ms Weisse, adding that governments preparing post-coronavirus economic stimulus plans should include measures to protect forests.

Indonesia was among the top three countries for primary forest loss last year, along with Brazil and Democratic Republic of Congo. The Indonesian figure was, however, down 5% from the year before, to 324,000 hectares. Malaysia lost 120,000 hectares, the sixth highest total worldwide, while Australia experienced a 560% jump in tree cover loss because of unprecedented bushfires.

At the same time, the pandemic has prompted the postponement of the UN climate summit from this year to November 2021. This year's talks were supposed two be the deadline for governments to commit to more aggressive emissions-cutting goals.

The Paris agreement calls for global temperature increases to be capped at 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and for countries to aim for 1.5 degrees if possible. But the world is now on track for for roughly 3 degrees of warming this century -- a level scientists say would have severe consequences for sea-level rise, extreme weather events and mass migration as people flee regions made uninhabitable.

But technology is now making it cheaper for big polluters like China and India to cut their emissions. The cost of building new solar or wind farms is now cheaper than that of running existing coal plants, for example.

Attractive prices of renewables relative to fossil fuel power generation could also help governments embrace green economic recoveries from the shock of the pandemic.

The world could save up to US$23 billion of power system costs per year by using onshore wind and solar to replace the most expensive 500 gigawatts of coal-fired power, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. Such a switch, it says, would also reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by the equivalent of 5% of the 2019 total.

The time seems right for all of us to start making the move to greener energy right now so the pandemic won't leave us with only negative consequences, but also something we can be hopeful about.

Nareerat Wiriyapong

Acting Asia Focus Editor

Acting Asia Focus Editor

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