When ostensible technocrats become ambitious politicians, supervised by army generals and beholden to patronage-driven elected politicians, the result is a power struggle, internal party turmoil, and a country being governed to nowhere. This is the current state of Thailand's ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), the head of a motley and fractious 19-member coalition of minor and micro parties, some represented by one single MP, propping up the government of former coup leader and current Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Yet in the face of the opposition bloc that is weak because it has been weakened, after the third-largest winner the Future Forward Party from the last election was dissolved earlier this year, the PPRP is on course to be in office for the foreseeable future, as a new poll is not due for another three years. These dire dynamics suggest Thailand will continue to be rudderless, stuck in a quagmire of its own making, with headwinds that may lead to a reckoning tempest.
At issue in Thailand's main ruling party is the PPRP's internal squabbling for power and cabinet portfolios. The PPRP leader and finance minister Uttama Savanayana and party secretary-general and energy minister Sontirat Sontijirawong faced an insurrection from within when 18 of 34 the party's executive board members resigned earlier this month, forcing a new vote for a new leadership team. Mr Uttama and Mr Sontirat, together with Prime Minister's Office Minister Kobsak Pootrakul and Higher Education, Science, Research, and Innovation Minister Suvit Maesincee, are known to owe their positions to Deputy Prime Minister and economic policy chief Somkid Jatusripitak, and the PPRP power plays were designed to kick out the Somkid-led team of would-be technocrats.
The problem is that Mr Somkid and his four supposed policy experts were not all that technocratic to begin with. When they first entered cabinet back in 2015 during the coup era, they were supposed to construct a technocracy to steer the Thai economy forward. To be fair, some innovative and promising policy ideas were put forward, led by Thailand 4.0 and the Eastern Economic Corridor strategies. But this clutch of policy hands soon lost their way and became politicised as they sought to maintain power, and eventually entered politics as PPRP leaders.
But politicians and technocrats do not mix. By definition, you can't be party leaders and technocrats at the same time. Technocrats require moral authority and political protection from power holders in order to apply their skills and expertise, driving economic growth and development. The traditional model in Thailand is a symbiotic relationship between technocrats and generals. The top brass needed economic expansion for political legitimacy and for their own vested interests, while policy experts needed to be empowered and insulated from the cut-and-thrust of the political fray. This technocracy-military bargain was evident during past military regimes, including the putsch led by Gen Sondhi Boonyaratglin in 2006 that produced a caretaker government spearheaded by Gen Surayud Chulanont.
But Prime Minister Prayut's government has broken this tradition. It is a military-backed government with no serious and effective technocratic wherewithal. The evidence is Thailand's sagging economy, even prior to the coronavirus, underpinned by the absence of growth strategies and mounting public debt just about up to the legal limit of 60% of GDP. While unelected, a military-supported government usually delivers much better on growth and development with much more technocratic capability. But what we have is an elected but rules-rigging military-backed government that is incompetent and treads day by day without an appealing future for its people.
Let's face it. Mr Somkid has been a spent force for some time. His lacklustre economic team has failed to deliver. The Thai economy lacked locomotion well before Covid-19. The Thailand 4.0 and EEC upgrading and growth strategies have lost momentum. Since the election, the economy lacked even more policy directions, mired in day-to-day political survival because of a weak coalition majority and composition.
It so happens now that the PPRP factions trying to overthrow the Somkid wing all come from the same government of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, led by Somsak Thepsuthin and Suriya Juengrungruangkit. Prime Minister Prayut seized power in an attempt to rid of the Thaksin regime for good but in fact many in his cabinet and the PPRP that back him are former Thaksin lieutenants. At this stage, after five years of military government and another under elected rule, it is increasingly difficult to set Gen Prayut apart from Thaksin in terms of patronage politics and political manoeuvring to stay in power. At this rate, Gen Prayut must be careful. Many will start seeing that at least back in the early 2000s, the Thai economy expanded briskly and the ruling party was elected by popular sovereignty.
It is unsurprising and pitiful at the same time that the PPRP's internal revolt to oust the Somkid team is pointing to Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon as prospective new leader. Gen Prawit may have been given a slap on the wrist by the unconvincing National Anti-Corruption Commission for all those luxury watches but he has not fooled the Thai people. If the PPRP provincial barons succeed in installing Gen Prawit, the ruling party and its coalition allies will be even more underwhelming.
What is more important will be Gen Prayut's cabinet reshuffle. If he can put in a new team of policy professionals to boost government performance and shore up the devastating economic contraction this year, then maybe the government can buy time. But moving forward, something will have to give in Thailand's malaise of economic downturn, political uncertainty, and unaccountable abuse of power. Regrettably, a level-playing parliament with people's representatives at work, holding government to account and providing outlets to address popular grievances, does not appear to be the way forward, with limitless downward implications. When generals, technocrats and politicians are the same lot, it is best not to pretend striving for the good unelected few to run the country, letting the Thai people decide instead.