Even if Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha makes it loud and clear he does not want to reshuffle the cabinet, the ongoing political turbulence will likely force him to rejig the portfolios, and that will likely occur very soon. Observers believe it could happen within a month.
The turbulence that is spurring the reshuffle process is the resignation of MR Chatu Mongol Sonakul as leader of the Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT) party, a coalition partner. It's expected that Anek Laothamatas will be his successor.
The other ruckus is the ongoing rift within the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), as those who slipped from the Prayut I cabinet list are pressing hard for the current portfolio to be changed, pushing aside the economic team under Somkid Jatusripitak.
As Gen Prayut has ignored their demands for a reshuffle, the rebel MPs have switched tactics, aiming for a change to the party's top position. They have nominated Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon as party leader, ditching Uttama Savanayana, the right hand of Mr Somkid, and Sonthirat Sonthijirawong, the party's secretary-general.
At the party meeting on June 27, we will see Gen Prawit rise to take the helm of the PPRP, while Anucha Nakhasai, a key man in the Sam Mitr group, will take over as PPRP secretary-general. The group wanted to nominate Mr Anucha as a candidate for deputy finance minister in the Prayut I cabinet, but he was bypassed. This time he will get the job, leaving no place for the Somkid group, which is known as the "four super kids".
This is the first defeat for the Somkid group in the PPRP. The rebel MPs need to speed up the rejig as they realise that the current coalition may not last for long given the number of crises it has faced: political conflicts and the economic slump over the past five years. A snap election in a year or two is expected, so they have no choice but to play the Prawit trump card as they know Gen Prayut always accommodates his "big brother".
Now we will have to see if Mr Somkid and the team will lose their positions in the cabinet too. That is highly possible, given the enormous pressure on Gen Prayut to dump the economic guru and his team. If the PM resists, it's certain the rebel MPs will pose a challenge that will hurt the government's image, and Gen Prayut's position as head of government may no longer be firm.
After almost one year as coalition party leader, the PPRP has transformed itself into a place for electioneers who are stuck with old politics, power bargaining, and who place their own interests before the public's.
It's an open secret the Sam Mitr group has been eyeing the energy portfolio of Mr Sonthirat. When Gen Prayut formed the current cabinet, Suriya Jungrungreangkij had aspiration to take the position as it is known the energy ministry has enormous interests. Gen Prayut dashed Mr Suriya's hopes given his negative image.
But it will be not easy for the Sam Mitr group to get what it wants. Other factions in the PPRP, including those from the now-dissolved People's Democratic Reform Committee, like Education Minister Nataphol Teepsuwan, are also aiming for this position. If the two factions cannot strike a deal, the PM may disappoint the Sam Mitr group by naming a third party.
Mr Uttama, like Mr Sonthirat, also finds his position insecure. There is wide speculation that the PM may invite "an outsider" with economic experience to fill the position to restore confidence in his administration.
Now the fate of Mr Somkid's team is in the PM's hands. If the army-chief-turned-politician wants to stay in power longer, he needs a strategy to win the hearts of the people.
That is not an easy task given that the opposition bloc of Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party (formerly the Future Forward Party) are popular among the new generation who despise old-style politics, where politicians relentlessly fight to maximise personal gain.
It's highly likely Gen Prawit will try to convince the PM to ditch Mr Uttama from the finance portfolio because the latter dared to challenge him by not resigning from the PPRP top post. Doing so might lead the whole team to lose their grip on both in the PPRP and the cabinet. It's reported that Gen Prawit was furious.
Insiders say Mr Somkid could quit if his team loses its cabinet positions. If that is the case, reports are saying the PM has another option in mind: inviting former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij into his cabinet. Mr Korn is a key Democrat figure who is forming his own party called the Kla Party.
In that case, the PM may offer Mr Korn a deputy premier post and the finance portfolio. The advantage of having him in the cabinet is that the former finance minister would cooperate better with Democrat-led economic ministers Jurin Laksanawisit and Chalermchai Sri-on, and that would help fix the weak links of incompatible economic teams.
Reliable sources in the Democrat Party said this option is very possible. Over the past months, Mr Korn came up with several proposals to ease economic hardship in the wake of the Covid-19 outbreak. Some were adopted by the government.
Back to the new aspirations of Gen Prawit as PPRP leader, it remains unclear if he wants to stay on as ad hoc party leader, using his strong connections with coalition and opposition bloc to settle all the political deals until the next election; or if he will settle into the role over the long term. But observers do not believe that he would stop at a temporary job.
Several MPs under his control think his connections would make him suitable to be interior minister as that would benefit the party base in the forthcoming local elections. This is because some MPs have complained they could not gain access to current Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda. Some say the "distance" between Gen Anupong and local MPs is the party's weakness.
Even so, as Gen Prawit is striving to expand his political role by subduing the Somkid team, there is speculation that Gen Prayut may take over the PPRP leadership.
This would help settle the conflict between the Somkid and Prawit factions. But, Gen Prayut is well aware that holding the top PPRP position would be a risky business for him because if he becomes a full politician, his dual role would be subject to scrutiny under the Political Party Act.
The Constitutional Court has accepted several cases filed against Gen Prayut by his opponents to see if his premiership is unconstitutional. For example, the case of him regarding him residing in a military house after retirement could be interpreted as accepting benefits reserved for a state official.
The attempt of Gen Prawit to rise in the PPRP ranks will likely do more harm than good to the party because of the general's luxury watches scandal. This would be a disadvantage to the prime minister.
If Gen Prayut were to ditch the Somkid team in the reshuffle, offering its cabinet positions to politicians out of the political arena would give the impression that the change is not on behalf of the public interest but instead for those you-know-who politicians. This means his government would face a public approval crisis, and the new cabinet would sooner or later have a stability issue. The clock would then start ticking.
Therefore, we will see Gen Prawit take the PPRP helm, and supposing that he's addicted to power, there is a possibility that he, with support from 250 senators, could be nominated as the new prime minister. If that is the case, Thai politics would go backward beyond anyone's imagination.