Govt must brace for long winter of discontent

Govt must brace for long winter of discontent

Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha does not belong to the House of Stark but he should pay heed to its motto: Winter is coming.

The threat he faces is at least three-pronged.

First, the economy is tanking.

Second, the Red Bull scion's dismissal has laid bare the ineptitude of government mechanisms and conservative ideals which PM Gen Prayut and his networks have championed.

Third, signs have emerged of a desire, at least among some segments of the population, to have a more open discussion about the monarchy. With the government drawing an apparently tight line around the subject, it is ill-suited to cope with the challenge.

Let's look at the economy.

Most if not all opinion polls reveal that day-to-day livelihoods are the number one concern for the public these days.

Despite further relaxation of lockdown measures, the country's economy, which relies heavily on exports and tourism, has shown no signs of recovery.

The second-quarter contraction could reach 13%, the worst since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, according to the Bank of Thailand.

For people on the street, the year-to-date experience revolves around hardship and income losses.

The government has tried to shore up the vulnerable by giving away cash stipends and living allowances during the height of the outbreak but the effect seemed minimal.

Likewise, the trillion-baht stimulus package does not seem to have produced a positive impact either, not among ordinary people.

The only change that people can anticipate is the new economics team. But with a PM who has no experience handling the economy vowing to lead the team, chances of success seem low.

Also, bickering within the coalition-leading Palang Pracharath Party about who should get what ministry harks back to the bad old days of politics being a rotten system ruled by vested interests.

Then, massive doubt over the justice system because of the Red Bull scion hit-and-run came crashing on top of the weakening economy.

How will the case end? Committees were set up to probe why Vorayuth ''Boss'' Yoovidhya was acquitted of all charges.

The body of a key witness who had been killed in a motorcycle crash was also seized under the PM's order for a new autopsy.

Meanwhile, debate still rages whether the Ferrari was travelling at more than 170kph or just 79kph. Where did the traces of cocaine come from? Dental treatment? Antibiotics? Why wasn't the illicit drug included in the case file?

The Boss case has been widely held as a test of how the justice system fares against the rich and powerful. Judging from the increasingly bizarre twists and turns, the system may be in need of an energy drink itself.

A victim of its own promises, the Prayut government bases itself on the status quo.

It told the public to trust the law and to obey the justice system. It vowed to "reform" government functions so that everyone can be fairly treated. Then what? A billionaire's son walked free after running away for eight years? In a case full of alleged irregularities?

What can these fact-finding committees come up with that will calm public discontent? Will it be enough to blame a few bad apples?

It is difficult to imagine how the government will regain public trust.

Third, increasingly visible signs that some groups would rather push the envelope when it comes to discussion about the monarchy and hard-line responses by extreme right-wingers, many of them supporters of the government, are worrying.

PM Gen Prayut in June said he was extremely concerned about anti-monarchy campaigns. He also wondered why there were still attempts to "insult" the monarchy even though the King instructed him not to use the lese majeste law against civilians.

What the PM and his right-wing supporters may not understand, or accept, is there could be wider grounds for the monarchy to be discussed honestly and intellectually that are neither glorification or insult.

For now, anything short of exaltation seems to be lese majeste.

Responses from right-wing elements against those who might only want to ensure that the institution stays relevant in the modern age have been akin to a witch hunt.

If the tension gets out of hand, violence could easily ensue.

These are on top of possible aftershocks following the forthcoming cabinet reshuffle and ongoing guard against the coronavirus.

All in all, it looks like a tiresome second anniversary for the Prayut government.

Atiya Achakulwisut is a Bangkok Post columnist.

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