As the anti-government protest drags on, we will witness what looks like a rerun of the months-long protest held about six years ago by the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) led by former Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban to force the resignation of acting prime minister Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan and the Pheu Thai-led government.
The acting PM refused to budge and stayed on stubbornly for months until, finally, then army chief Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha forced the administration out in a bloodless coup.
Like his predecessor, Prime Minister Prayut has been under siege by student-led protesters for several weeks now, but he appears to be unperturbed and just as stubborn. The three-day deadline for him to step down set by the protesters passed on Saturday at 10pm without any signs he would succumb to their demand.
Another protest was held at the Ratchsprasong shopping district yesterday afternoon. The protesters have also planned a protest march to the German Embassy today. Why the German Embassy? HM the King has spent most of his time in that country for many years.
So, what do the protesters or their cheerleaders expect from the German government? It should be noted that, recently, Frithjof Schmidt, a member of opposition Greens party and a member of parliament's foreign policy committee, raised complaints to the German government about the King allegedly conducting political affairs on German soil which, according to Mr Schmidt, is incompatible with the King's residency status in Germany. So, we have to wait and see how the German government will respond to the protesters' demand.
One thing for sure is that Prime Minister Prayut will not meet the same fate as his predecessor ousted in a putsch because the military is solidly behind the prime minister and is fiercely loyal to the monarchy.
A former soldier himself, the prime minister also considers himself as a guardian of the institution and, for that matter, will not quit in the face of the protests so long as the protesters' demands include sweeping reform of the monarchy, or even overthrowing the institution entirely as hard-core royalists suspect they are really advocating.
Those who expect an Arab Spring revolution in Thailand will be disappointed.
Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, of the Progressive Movement, who appears obsessed with the French Revolution, implied in a recent Facebook post that the monarchy has two choices -- either it agrees with reform or faces a revolution.
Wishful thinking. A revolution by the people without military support has a remote chance of being successful as attested by the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings.
Zoltan Barany wrote in the Journal of Democracy back in October 2011 that support of the armed forces is a necessary condition for a revolution to succeed. He examined the military's role in the six Arab states of Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen. In Tunisia and Egypt, he said the military backed the revolution while in Libya and Yemen, the military was split. In Syria and Bahrain, the military turned their guns against the pro-democracy demonstrators.
Even the Oct 14 student-led uprising in 1973 in Thailand was successful in overthrowing the Thanom-Praphas-Narong dictatorship because of the intervention of the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej and a rebellion by then army commander-in-chief Gen Kris Sivara who defied the trio's order to send troops to crush the student demonstrators.
The military rebellion against Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos was also instrumental in the success of the People's People Revolution in 1986.
The likely scenario will be a stalemate between the government and the protesters -- a test of tolerance and resolve by the opposing sides. After the big mistake of resorting to excessive force -- high-pressure water spray tainted with chemicals -- to disperse the peaceful protesters at Pathumwan intersection recently which drew widespread condemnation, the government has adopted a soft approach as evident in the lifting of the severe state of emergency, releasing most arrested protesters except for eight key members, and refraining from the use of force to disband the protesters.
The protesters are mostly peaceful except for a provocative handful which includes a group of students from the Faculty of Architecture at Chiang Mai University who launched a signature collection campaign to support their call for the removal of a piece of art installed on a wall of the faculty building in memory of the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej. The move enraged yellow shirt royalists who recently took to the streets in Bangkok and elsewhere to voice their support for the monarchy.
The standoff will drag on until both sides become exhausted and call for a truce. Or, they may lose patience and provoke violence. Time will tell.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.