The Opposition's censure debate against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his nine cabinet ministers, tentatively scheduled for Feb 16-19, with voting to take place the following day looks set to hit a snag from the beginning -- perhaps even before the start of the actual debate.
The problem stems from the censure motion which contains serious accusations, with wording referring to the monarchy, and attacks against the government -- the prime minister, in particular.
The accusations read as follows: "…not upholding nor having faith in the democratic system with the king as head of the state; opposing the democratic system; undermining the relationship between the monarchy and the people; using the monarchy as an excuse to divide the people; and claiming the monarchy and using it as a shield to deflect its mistakes and failures in the nation's administration."
These are serious claims which have never been raised in previous censure motions against an incumbent government.
It explains why the government chief whip Wirach Rattanasate sought a meeting on Jan 28 with opposition leader Sompong Amornvivat in the presence of House Speaker Chuan Leekpai to solve their conflict over the censure motion, specifically the reference to the monarchy.
Mr Sompong promised to look into the matter and went back to the Pheu Thai Party to consult with opposition parties.
The answer from the opposition was a flat: "No way". They will not delete the monarchy reference from their motion, claiming they have the right to refer to the institution during the debate.
Mr Chuan is reportedly concerned with the consequences of such a reference, but cannot stop the opposition because they have not broken any regulations.
The censure debate will proceed as scheduled. But the proceedings will not be a smooth ride, given the warnings by PM's Office Vice-Minister Suporn Atthawong and Jatuporn Promphan, chairman of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).
One possible scenario is that once the opposition leader reads out the accusations against the government, Palang Pracharath MPs will stage a boisterous protest.
One of the questions to be raised is the constitutionality of the motion pertaining to the monarchy which, in this case, is regarded as the third party and, in accordance with the constitution, is out of bounds for such a debate.
What several government MPs are concerned about is that this may not be a censure debate against the prime minister and his nine ministers, but a debate on the monarchy itself, especially by MPs from the Move Forward party, the incarnation of the dissolved Future Forward Party under leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit.
Such concerns seem to be over-stated as most, if not all, MPs should be fully aware that referring to the monarchy in an accusatory way is a risky political game which may strip them of parliamentary immunity and land them with lese majeste charges if the debate is broadcast live.
The opposition's serious accusations against the prime minister or the government appear to be rhetoric rather than substance, but provocative and inflammatory statements may disrupt the debate from the very beginning.
Sira Jenjakha, a maverick Palang Pracharath Party member, is one such person in the government camp who is most likely to come to the rescue of the prime minister and disrupt the debate.
The public expect substance from the opposition -- that it can come up with hard evidence to prove the government's failures in managing state affairs such as the Covid-19 pandemic, corruption in the bureaucratic system and the police force in particular, which sadly caused the new virus outbreak, or the prime minister's broken promises on reform of the police and the prosecution, to name just a few.
There are still two weeks before the debate commences. The opposition should do its homework and come up with a mature and substantive debate to prove its worth.
The opposition know -- just as the people know -- that they won't be able to topple the government through the censure debate. But the people expect the opposition to do a good job in parliament. That means less rhetoric and more substance.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.