In the aftermath of the military coup on Feb 1, Myanmar's armed forces have evidently taken the lead in Southeast Asia's authoritarian race to the bottom. For its speed and depth of reversal from a fragile democracy to a hard dictatorship within six weeks, Myanmar currently ranks top among developing states worldwide. At stake now is not just Myanmar's political future and the well-being of its people but the fate of developing democracies elsewhere.
If Myanmar's military succeeds and retains power through violent suppression of pro-democracy protesters, the global authoritarian upsurge will gain pivotal momentum. Autocrats everywhere will be emboldened as much as leaders in democratic states will be discouraged. All who want to turn back the tide of authoritarian rule have a vested interest in seeing to it that the Myanmar junta, led by chief coup-maker Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, loses in the end but in a way that allows the country to maintain a peaceful and workable outcome for its 55 million ethnically diverse population.
From reports coming out of the country, what is taking place on the ground is a post-coup reign of terror. Many Myanmar people have likened the security forces' brutal suppression, beatings and inhumane treatment to no less than terrorism. Night-time raids, arbitrary arrests and detentions, wanton physical abuses, beating and maiming have become a daily occurrence. The army and police are deliberately decimating what had been a thriving civil society that grew over the past decade when the country opened up with political liberalisation, economic reforms, and gradual development progress after nearly five decades of military dictatorship and pariah status in the world.
The Myanmar military's systematic perpetration of violence and repression against its own people, who voted overwhelmingly twice in 2015 and 2020 for the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, against the armed forces' Union Solidary for Development Party. The military's inability to win the hearts and minds of voters was a major rationale for the coup.
As its political situation degenerates into a dark dictatorship, Myanmar is crowding out and taking up Southeast Asia's global bandwidth. Asean, the 53-year-old organisation which accepted Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnams as members in the 1990s, is fractured in its response to the coup. More authoritarian members have insisted on taking it in their stride with the "non-interference in internal affairs" principle, whereas the more democratic governments have admonished the junta, urging it to free civilian leaders from detention and return to a democratic process.
Both sides have drawn their positions from the Asean Charter, which stipulates both the "non-interference" clause and democracy and good governance aspirations. Both camps also have a vested interest in Myanmar's regime type because of divergent interests. Indonesia as the third-largest democracy in the world, for example, is the firmest in calling for Myanmar's return to democratic rule. In tandem, a more politically open and economically dynamic Asean enables its member states more leverage in international life.
With the second-largest economy in the region, Thailand stands at the other end. It is not advocating "non-interference" like Laos and Cambodia but superficially favours dialogue and reconciliation. Thai leaders have decidedly avoided calling for a return of democracy, the release of political prisoners, and an immediate halt to shootings and beatings by the security forces against unarmed civilians, including women and children.
Myanmar has become the ultimate embarrassment for Asean. The race is to the bottom comes with a competition to be the sickest member of the regional organisation. Different member states have taken turns at this. Cambodia has been dismal with its dissolution of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party, a one-party sweep of poll results under the Cambodian People's Party, and prison terms for major exiled opposition leaders. Cambodia's is an elected one-party authoritarian regime.
Politically unwell for two decades, Thailand is fundamentally consistent but much more sophisticated, involving a plethora of agencies and mechanisms to control outcomes. After its last coup in 2014, the Thai military arranged for a new constitution to mandate one-third parliamentary control under ruling generals and empowered election and anti-corruption agencies and the courts to essentially break up and weaken opposing parties to arrive at a multiparty coalition with military backing under a royalist-conservative status quo, led by the same junta leader.
Myanmar now makes Cambodia and Thailand pale in comparison because it has done away with all pretense of good governance and the rule of law. Because they rose up during the long decades of military dictatorship, Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing and the junta never saw the need to dress up the military takeover under constitutional clothing and political tampering. The Myanmar junta is all about raw power, naked ambition, self-entitlement, and a willingness to mow down its own people with batons and bullets.
Apart from lowering the authoritarian bar, Myanmar's coup case also has diverted international attention away from other pressing priorities in the region. When they look at Southeast Asia, leaders in established democracies from Washington and New York to London, Brussels, and Tokyo are likely to be more focused on the Myanmar military's barbarity against its people rather than Cambodia's persecution of opposition leaders and Thailand's crackdown on dissent and youth-led protest movement, including the increasing use of the lese majeste law, or Section 112.
Myanmar merits most attention but the political darkness there should be viewed in a regional perspective. The international community should come down hard on the Myanmar junta without taking its eyes off violations and abuses of basic rights and fundamental freedoms elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Attention and appetite for nuance and complexity in a long game are needed.
Just as democratic transitions made headway three decades ago before giving way to an authoritarian upsurge, the reverse can take place as younger demographics rise up and take matters into their hands. With few exceptions, authoritarianism and all degrees of dictatorship are unsuited and unfit for young people's livelihoods and aspirations. Myanmar's armed forces might well find this out the hard way.