As Thailand and its neighbours scramble to rein in a new surge in Covid-19 cases, Asean as a whole is facing a critical challenge posed by violence and economic devastation in Myanmar.
More than 740 civilians have been killed and at least 4,360 detained in Myanmar since the Feb 1 military coup, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. The brutal takeover by the Tatmadaw has drawn condemnation from governments and international bodies, including the United Nations.
The World Food Programme (WFP) warned last Wednesday that deepening turmoil in Myanmar could consign an additional 3.4 million people to hunger in the coming six months, on top of nearly 3 million already suffering food insecurity. Having lost jobs and unable to afford food, families are skipping meals, eating less nutritious food and going into debt to survive.
With the triple impact of pre-existing poverty, Covid and the political crisis, prices of rice, cooking oil and fuel have surged since January. In the longer term, vulnerable people in urban areas affected by the economic standstill are at greatest risk, while the impact on food systems will add pressure on rural populations' food security, the UN agency said.
On the political front, an international effort to jolt the country back onto a democratic path continues. The European Union last Monday imposed travel bans and asset freezes on nine members of the junta's State Administration Council. Two days later, the US targeted two state-owned businesses with connections to the armed forces.
Sanctions are a further blow to Myanmar, where economic activity is now at a standstill, trade has been disrupted, and internal displacement of ethnic minorities is rising -- all of which bode ill for the poor. The economy was already severely affected by the pandemic. Last year, a quarter of the population were classified as poor and another third were deemed vulnerable to poverty.
The banking system is barely functioning, with just a few of the estimated 2,000 branches of private banks operational. The result has been a big backlog of international payments, withdrawals and interbank transfers. That is a big problem for the estimated 4 million Myanmar citizens abroad who send remittances on which their families depend. Most healthcare providers and schools are closed, while up to 90% of national government activity has ceased.
Many factories are closing as operators cannot be certain of obtaining materials for production, let alone selling finished products. Transport disruptions have sent logistics costs soaring. The WFP says only 25% of the regular transport services based in Yangon are operating.
Given all the above factors, it's no surprise that the World Bank has forecast that GDP in Myanmar could contract by a staggering 10% this year. Prior to the coup, the bank was forecasting 5.9% growth. Some think that even the revised World Bank forecast is too rosy. Fitch Solutions is among those who say the country is headed for failed-state status.
"In our view, the escalating violence on civilians and ethnic militias show that the Tatmadaw is increasingly losing control of the country," the UK-based research house said. "With workers from the private and public sector not turning up for work in protests, the economy will also collapse.
" … even if the international community succeeds in bringing the Tatmadaw authorities to the negotiating table, the vast Myanmar populace would also not recognise any agreed arrangement as it was not negotiated with their recognised leadership," it added.
That is why so much is now riding on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which held a summit over the weekend in Jakarta. Its leaders and foreign ministers have clearly stated that events in Myanmar affect the stability and credibility of the region as a whole.
While the initial meeting was not expected to yield big results, we hope Asean collectively can help to stop or at least reduce the violence in Myanmar.
One critical challenge is that each of the 10 Asean members has its own interests to protect in relation to Myanmar. Singapore, the largest foreign investor with US$24 billion committed, will be careful about managing risks to its own economy. Vietnam, meanwhile, stands to benefit from instability in Myanmar as investors seek new production bases.
Asean has always prided itself on unity, and now more than ever it needs to speak with one voice in calling for talks to resolve the crisis in Myanmar.