Life returning to 'normal', but for how long?

Life returning to 'normal', but for how long?

So life will return to something like normal tomorrow. We can have our hair cut, finally. Public parks will reopen along with shopping malls. Those with aching legs can make an appointment for a foot massage, and so on.

The question, however, is for how long.

Last time, we had but a few months to exhale before another cluster was found which demanded yet another round of business closures and curbs on mobility.

By now, it should have become clear that lockdowns alone cannot control the outbreak. Mass vaccination, active track-and-trace and effective home and community isolation plus timely treatment can. These will allow us to "live with it" in the long term.

Alas, these long-term measures hinge on the government's ability to succeed. With the government rocked by a crisis of confidence due to its seemingly poor outbreak handling, the questions are how much the government learned and whether we can still trust it.

The doubt starts from whether its diagnosis that the peak has passed is true.

Although daily new infections have dropped from more than 20,000 during the previous weeks to under 16,000 yesterday, the number does not include possible cases among people who were confirmed as Covid-positive by antigen test kits (ATKs), which stood at about 2,000 yesterday.

Also, we don't know how extensive the screening has been. Is it possible there were fewer confirmed cases because there were fewer tests?

Department of Disease Control data show an overall slight decline in the number of people seeking Covid-19 tests, from about 55,900 on Aug 20 to 48,190 yesterday, with only 1,544 active case findings.

The drop in the number of people tested in Bangkok, where the outbreak seems to be most severe, appears more prominent, from about 11,600 on August 20 to 7,832 yesterday, with only 829 active case findings.

It's intriguing that the number of people seeking Covid-19 tests themselves is more than seven times higher than testing positive from active case finding, recorded at 5,884 yesterday in Bangkok.

Another worrying sign is that fatalities have not come down that much, still hovering at nearly 300 per day. With the number of patients with severe symptoms recorded at about 5,000 and those needing ventilators at about 1,000, the situation still appears quite grim.

Still, the Centre for the Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) made the decision to start easing its curbs in strict-control areas based on the seemingly downward infection trend.

The next question is if the testing capacity is kept between 50,000 to 70,000 a day on average, which is relatively low for the country's 70 million population, and not much hope from ATKs as they are still too costly being retailed at about the daily wage of 300 baht, what will ensure that a new cluster will not emerge anytime soon?

The Government Pharmaceutical Organization said it has inked a deal to purchase 8.5 ATKs and plans to distribute them to at-risk groups. It also said that if the project works, it will order more ATKs to give away.

But like the government's numerous Covid-19 vaccines deals, there seem to be a lot of plans but there is no knowing whether these will just end up as empty promise.

What Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said during the censure debate in February still rings hollow. "In the third quarter, hospitals will be full of vaccines. Thai people's arms will be filled with vaccines."

As it turned out, deep into the third quarter only 31% of Thais have received one dose while just 9.5% have been fully vaccinated.

Along with easing the lockdown, the CCSA also announced its "Smart Control and Living with Covid-19" plan, which will supposedly usher in a more balanced approach between controlling the virus and allowing people to make a living and the economy to function.

Among ten measures under the plan is the need to find as many vaccines as possible as quickly as possible.

The government said it was confident it would be able to procure at least 120 million doses of vaccines this year. Together with alternative vaccines procured by the private sector, the government believes the country could have more than 130 million doses which would be enough for 65 million people.

But can we believe this plan will materialise? After all, despite the government stating its "confidence", everything remains very much on a wish list. When the time comes, will the promised doses will be unavailable?

And who will take responsibility if things do not go as planned? Everyone apparently. Without enough vaccines, free and reasonably priced ATKs and effective isolation measures, there could be no "smart" control. There is no assurance either that lockdowns will not return.

Atiya Achakulwisut is a Bangkok Post columnist.

Atiya Achakulwisut

Columnist for the Bangkok Post

Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist for the Bangkok Post.

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