The whole world is now looking at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in hope that the regional group is ready to carry a bigger stick in addressing the crisis facing one of its members -- Myanmar.
Like never before in the group's 54 years of existence, Asean's top leaders have had to confront their earlier failure to address the fallout from Myanmar's Feb 1 coup, including severe human rights abuses and economic collapse, all of which threaten the credibility, stability and prosperity of the 10-member bloc as a whole.
The Tatmadaw, as the Myanmar military is known, has launched savage campaigns against dissidents in both cities and rural areas. Since the takeover, nearly 9,000 civilians have been arrested and 1,170 killed by security forces, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.
Meanwhile, ethnic armed groups that have been in conflict with the state for decades are fighting back. Terrified residents are fleeing into neighbouring countries including Thailand as soldiers fire rocket launchers into their neighbourhoods, burn down homes, while cutting off internet access and food supplies. All of this raises the spectrum of Myanmar becoming a failed state.
The junta has targeted Chin State because it is home to the Chin National Front, the first ethnic armed group to throw its support behind the National Unity Government (NUG) made up of ousted political figures. The rebel group has also been training thousands of anti-coup protesters who have taken up arms against the military under the banner of the People's Defence Force.
According to the United Nations, roughly 15,000 people in Myanmar have fled for India in the eight months since the army seized control. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees has tracked some 5,000 people who entered India from Myanmar after recent clashes and says "things are getting worse".
Last Monday, Myanmar state television announced that some 5,600 people arrested or wanted over anti-coup protests would be granted amnesty, following a speech from the junta chief affirming his commitment to peace and democracy. Among those freed was a spokesmen for the toppled civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, although several were swiftly re-arrested, rights activists reported.
Some activists described the prisoner release as a desperate image-building stunt after Asean took the rare step of barring Senior Gen Myint Aung Hlaing, the junta chief, from its summit that opens tomorrow and will be followed by the East Asia Summit that will include leaders from China, India, Japan, Russia, Australia and the US.
Pushed by Indonesia and Malaysia, Asean foreign ministers made the decision after Myanmar said that Asean special envoy Erywan Yusof, a Bruneian diplomat, would be barred from meeting Aung San Suu Kyi if he visited the country.
Unable to gain access to Myanmar's elected leader, Mr Erywan probably will not visit Myanmar before Brunei hands over the Asean chairmanship to Cambodia after this week's summits.
Asean instead decided to invite a "non-political" representative from Myanmar, though who that will be is not yet clear. Critics said this looked like a face-saving gesture, but in fact it sets a new precedent for dealings with Myanmar and perhaps other wayward members in the future.
The decision suggests unease over the presence of the so-called State Administration Council at regional forums as Myanmar's legitimate government. It is the first time that Asean has publicly set conditions for a member state's representation at a key high-level meeting.
Clearly, Asean will be hard-pressed to meet expectations that it can somehow reverse the coup given a lack of strong regional leadership, unity and chronic institutional weakness. Indonesia and Malaysia, meanwhile, have made no secret of their dissatisfaction with the lack of progress on a coordinated regional approach to Myanmar.
Public anger is growing over the group's failure to address escalating violence and rights abuses. Young activists, in particular, have warned that the lack of strong action will force them to seek alternatives in building a Southeast Asian community.
Nonetheless, I believe Asean, Myanmar and other dialogue partners still have a small chance to work out a compromise on ways to ensure that the five-point roadmap toward democracy, agreed in Jakarta in April, could be carried out at a pace acceptable to all concerned.
Asean's snub of the Myanmar military may be the start of a new approach. The question is how long, consistently, and effectively can the group pursue this path?