The timing and venue of the upcoming special summit between Asean and US leaders later this week are extraordinary. However, the ways in which the unusual strategic circumstances and tensions could further shape the trajectory of Asean-US relations remain to be seen. With the new schedule of the May 12-13 summit in Washington DC and the fresh developments on the ground at home and abroad, the summit will be conducted in a very cautious manner to prevent any spill-over effects or unintended consequences. Indeed, there is a high level of scepticism among the Asean members as to what the US has up its sleeve. The American gung-ho rhetoric has been quite worrisome.
One week before the much-awaited summit, Cambodia, Indonesia and Thailand issued a joint statement reminding the international community that as hosts of three important summits in November, they should be given the chance to do their job without any pressure or interference from external powers. It was an unprecedented move.
It is an open secret that Indonesia, the chair of the G20, has been under severe pressure from the US and its allies to limit or even suspend Russia's presence at the G20 summit following its invasion of Ukraine. Indonesian President Jokowi Widodo, popularly known as "Jokowi", faces a Catch-22 situation. But as the world's third-largest democracy, openly endorsed by Washington as a beacon of democratic model for developing countries, Jakarta has to do its bidding -- a la Javanese style.
Indonesia has not followed in the West's footsteps. As a major force in the regional and Muslim world, Indonesia has maintained a strictly non-aligned posture since its independence. Within Asean, different views toward Russia are also deep-rooted, especially in former Indochinese countries. Only Vietnam and Laos abstained from the March 3 UN General Assembly resolution to condemn the invasion of Ukraine.
However, to ensure the US participation led by President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Bali on Nov 15-16, Jakarta caved into Washington's overture and invited Ukraine as the guest of the host, which came after Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi visited France, the United Kingdom and Turkey. On his own, Jokowi also initiated phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky to extend his invitations. He said Mr Putin promised to attend the G20 summit.
Washington has focused on the G20 due to its enormous influence on global economies and finance. The Biden administration and EU want to sever Russia as much as possible from international economic links to weaken its ability to wage war in Ukraine and elsewhere. These joint sanctions have already directly impacted lives throughout the world, not to mention in Southeast Asia. For instance, interest rates, inflation and food and fuel prices in Thailand and elsewhere in the region have surged.
Jakarta has been very concerned that there could be spillover effects from the US's active policy in the Ukraine war as Washington seeks further support from Asean. As a coordinating country for Asean-US relations, Jakarta is the key player, apart from the Asean chair, in shaping the optics and narratives of the upcoming special summit. There is another concern: whether Washington will extend pressure to the two other Asean hosts that have ready invited Russia to take part.
From the regional perspective, all three hosts would like to have all invited leaders, especially Mr Biden and Mr Putin, stopover in their capitals. After all, it would be the first opportunity in two years for global players to meet face to face and mingle as the Covid-10 pandemic has subsided. But the trio also realises that it is almost impossible that their guests will be able to attend all their summits, which will last a total of 10 days. Like it or not, they will pick and choose depending on their schedules and other considerations. So far, only China has signalled that its leaders will attend all the summits.
It is no wonder that high anxiety currently prevails in Phnom Penh and Bangkok as to whether Mr Biden will come to mainland Southeast Asia at all. Normally, confirmation of a US presidential visit will come very late. Therefore, at the moment there is only speculation. In Cambodia, Mr Biden would come as the president wants to ramp up ties with Asean and follow up on his Indo-Pacific strategies and promise of new economic links for investment in infrastructure. As the next Apec chair, Mr Biden will also have to take up the baton from Thailand so his presence is necessary. In 2003, when former President George W Bush attended the Apec leaders' meeting in Bangkok, he also made a state visit as the guest of the late King Bhumibhol Adulyadej The Great.
One caveat is in the order given the current volatile situation; any trans-continental flights could be subjected to change at the last minute. One more question remains unanswered so far: Will Mr Biden travel after the mid-term elections in the US Congress scheduled for Nov 8? It all depends on the domestic situation. In 2013, Barack Obama skipped the Asean summit in Brunei Darussalam due to a US government shutdown after promising to come.
This time around the Cambodian chair, Prime Minister Hun Sen, hopes to host Mr Biden in Phnom Penh since it will be his last grandstand before he retires from politics. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Hun Sen surprised the regional and international community with the decision to condemn the invasion, a break from fellow Indochinese countries Vietnam and Laos, which abstained in the March vote.
Among the Asean members, the debate on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in Thailand has been the loudest due to the domestic political situation. In the past two months, the war of words among opposing groups over the Ukraine conflict has been over the top. Russia has gained support from the conservatives while the younger and liberal-minded generation backs Ukraine. They also want their country to condemn Russia as the West has done.
At the moment, Indonesia and the National Security Council are still working on their joint vision statement, which will be released on Friday. As of last week, both sides have generally agreed on all issues related to the whole gamut of their bilateral relations on economic, social, cultural, education, and climate change, among others. However, they have yet to agree on three key issues -- the Ukraine crisis, Myanmar and the South China Sea. They highlighted the divergent views among the Asean members and their American counterparts.
Asean's positions on Ukraine are clear -- supporting the UN charter, sovereignty and territorial integrity, calling for an immediate ceasefire, and providing humanitarian aid. Most importantly, they are trying to avoid the severe impacts on their economic recovery post-Covid-19 and the Ukraine conflict. The final wording will be vetted by Asean foreign ministers ahead of the summit, replacing Malaysia's call for a special Asean summit to show their solidarity.
In the case of Myanmar, Asean will stick to its five-point consensus (5PC) adopted last April. Asean held a consultative meeting last week among stakeholders from Asean, special UN agencies and nongovernmental organisations to work out a comprehensive humanitarian plan. Currently, nearly one million Myanmar people have been displaced internally in the past 15 months following the Feb 1 coup. they are in need of urgent assistance from abroad.
As far as the situation in the South China Sea is concerned, Asean and the US are on the same page as they are committed to freedom of the seas, open waterways, the unimpeded flow of lawful maritime commerce, governed by international law consistent with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. In addition, both sides will reaffirm the need to enhance mutual trust and confidence, exercise self-restraint to avoid escalating disputes, and affect peace and stability.
Their joint stands would also emphasise the importance of non-militarisation and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities by claimants and all other states, including those mentioned in the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), which could further complicate the situation and escalate tensions in the South China Sea. Asean will commemorate the 20th anniversary of the DOC at the Asean summit in November.
In the draft joint vision statement, one new element related to the maritime domain could be the US pledge to promote the Asean members' ability to conserve, sustainably develop and effectively manage their maritime natural resources in accordance with international law.
The joint statement by the three members is designed to send a strong signal to the Biden administration that collectively Asean will not take sides even though individually, each member does have its own positions with variations. Asean fears that Washington's obsession with winning the war in Ukraine will go into overdrive. Senior Asean officials have applauded India's firm response to the West's criticism and pressure in trying to force New Delhi to switch its position.
To ensure that the special Asean-US summit will zero in on bilateral matters without jeopardising the grouping's relations with its major strategic partners, Asean has put on hold the US application to become a comprehensive dialogue partner, citing procedural processes. India is in a similar situation.
Asean hopes that the Biden administration might rejuvenate bilateral ties, currently commemorating their 45th anniversary, as the past six years were a bane for their relationship as former president Donald Trump did not care much about regionalism and multilateralism. Mr Biden has a great opportunity to boost Asean centrality by committing to attending all three summits.
Top-level participation will go a long way to strengthening ties with Asean that would positively impact various new US frameworks related to the Indo-Pacific strategy. A stronger and independent Asean would be a boon to US global strategies.