Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha survived the no-confidence debate, albeit narrowly. Yet his victory in parliament, a result of cash handouts to minnow parties and heavy bargaining, doesn't necessarily mean he and his government have won the support of the public.
Days ahead of the censure debate, which began on July 19, there emerged reports about cash handouts being exchanged for approval votes for Gen Prayut and the targeted ministers. The money was likened to "bananas for monkeys".
With the offered "bananas", politicians from minnow parties quickly shifted their support away from Thamanat Prompow, leader of the Setthakij Thai Party, who had previously promised to deal Gen Prayut a knockout blow.
The betrayal is understandable. As the next elections are just months away, these politicians think it would be to their own benefit to serve as the government's ally, not that of the opposition. As the government was in dire need of support, there was never a better time for bargaining, not only for politicians in the smaller parties but also some in the opposition camp.
Now the maverick Capt Thamanat is taking his revenge. He has threatened to expose the money trail, with Line app messages showing several politicians receiving payments from Prawit Wongsuwon as evidence. In that case, the politicians in question will face a probe on suspicion of having breached political ethics.
Surviving the no-confidence debate means it's likely Gen Prayut could stay on and complete his four-year term as the head of an elected government. But he cannot be a proud winner. In fact, he -- as well as his government -- has emerged somewhat bruised since the opposition revealed several scandals, such as the alleged bribes, as well as graft and asset concealment by a minister in a major coalition party.
And lest we forget, Gen Prayut will encounter a major challenge involving his dubious tenure. Under the 2017 constitution, a prime minister's term is limited to eight years. The army-chief-turned-premier has run the country since 2014 since he staged a coup that toppled the Pheu Thai-led government. By Aug 24, he will have marked eight years in power. The question is: When is the official date that his tenure began?
His supporters insist the count should begin from 2019, based on the current charter, not in 2014 as demanded by his opponents. The opposition is preparing to seek a Constitutional Court ruling and if the court agrees with the challenge, Gen Prayut will have to pack his bags.
One month from now, the political scene will become even more tumultuous, with rising pressure on the charter court. It's believed, however, that Gen Prayut will pass all the obstacles as political parties will have to save their energy for the next election, rather than engaging in a political showdown.
As Gen Prayut still hopes to remain in the political arena, he and his brothers in arms need favourable election rules, to be stipulated by a new bill that is being vetted in parliament. As time is running short, there has been much debate about the most suitable calculation formula for the number of MPs, between 100 and 500, as well as the shift from a one- to two-ballot system, as those in power are afraid of Pheu Thai gaining a landslide in the next election.
In short, Gen Prayut and his ex-junta associates are seeking to maintain their political dominance at all costs. With such ambition in mind, it's likely the Prayut government, which has taken out enormous loans, will spend a great deal to intensify their populist appeal -- a surefire way he believes will help restore public support and secure his return. We saw that in the July 26 cabinet meeting, as the government added several billion baht in schemes to support the poor, among other populist measures.
To ensure it gains the upper hand, the government will replace those who are due to retire with people they trust, including over 30 new governors and several deputy governors. Gen Prayut and his brothers in arms will therefore have to tread carefully when replacing Pol Gen Suwat Jangyodsuk.
People are tired of the current administration and they feel let down by the dirty political games played during the charter amendment process.
What the government is doing to extend its power by amending the charter attests to how the junta-sponsored 2017 constitution is a poor mechanism as it enables the men in green to hang around in politics and unfairly take advantage of other parties. Eight years after the coup, and despite the junta's promises of getting rid of bad politicians, Thailand's politics remains trapped in a bad cycle, while talk of reform is nothing but propaganda.
The government's win in parliament may prove useless for Gen Prayut and the junta as more people realise they are the ones who can effect real political change -- an opportunity that will come in the next elections.