The charter court’s decision to suspend Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha until it hands down a ruling over his controversial eight-year term limit as prime minister could be a bad omen for the army chief-turned-politician who, until this week, has run the country since 2014. Despite Gen Prayut weathering political storms and surviving many censure debates during the past three years, the onerous eight-year-tenure issue will soon be resolved.
That the court unanimously accepted the case, submitted by the opposition bloc, was not entirely surprising. But few would have thought that the immediate suspension through a 5:4 vote might result in a political vacuum. Now it’s his so-called “big brother”, Gen Prawit Wongsuwon who assumes the role of caretaker prime minister, with full power over personnel transfers, especially military and police, and budget matters.
The court is expected to give a ruling within a month or so. Some observers are of the view that the future of Gen Prayut and the Palang Pracharath Party is quite uncertain.
The opposition cited Section 158 of the 2017 charter which limits the tenure of a prime minister to eight years. However, his supporters are adamant the count should start in 2019, and not 2014, when he was sworn in according to the current charter.
There are two possibilities. In the event the court issues a verdict in his favour, Gen Prayut can complete his four-year term which is due to end early next year and run for office. If he wins the next election, he could be around in politics until 2027. But, on the other hand, if the court agrees with the opposition, Gen Prayut will have to go right away. Such a ruling would be the final curtain on his political career.
If that is the case, parliament would have to vote for his successor, and a new government would be formed.
It’s believed Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of Bhumjaithai, has a good chance of taking the top job given that he is a major coalition party’s candidate for the premiership. But we cannot rule out Gen Prawit as the big brother can control the 250-strong Senate which still has a say in endorsing the prime minister.
According to some observers, the way the charter court handled the case gives good reason for Gen Prayut and his men to feel rattled. This is because by issuing the suspension, the court must be convinced the opposition’s allegations have some grounds.
Experts including former charter court judge like Jarun Pukditanakul see the suspension as an inauspicious sign for Gen Prayut given court protocol. He is confident the court has weighed up the advantages and disadvantages of Gen Prayut’s absence known by the legal term “balance of inconvenience”, in issuing the suspension order which could show the verdict’s direction.
Past records show that all of those suspended, including heavyweight politicians, eventually faced the axe. Among them were Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, leader of the now dissolved Move Forward Party who was stripped of his MP status over the share ownership saga; five core leaders of the now defunct People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) including Thaworn Senneam, Democrat MP for Songkhla and Buddhipongse Punnakanta and Nataphol Teepsuwan, then PPRP list MPs, who faced jail terms for their roles in the 2013-2014 protests.
But it’s worth noting that the court made mixed decisions for those who were allowed to perform while waiting for a ruling. Some were be spared, for instance, Capt Thamanat Prompow, whose shady past makes opposition MPs question if he’s fit for a parliamentary role; and a group of 32 MPs who own shares in media firms.
There is also the case of Sira Jenjaka, a PPRP MP for Bangkok, who had been in jail over a fraud case. While not suspended, he was eventually disqualified by the court.
Now it’s the turn of Niphon Bunyamanee, a deputy interior minister who was found guilty in a malfeasance case back in 2013 when he was chair of Songkhla provincial administration office. He has not been sidelined and his fate will be sealed on Sept 14.
So, there’s probably a 50:50 chance of the embattled Gen Prayut returning to Thai Khu Fah or leaving politics once and for all. Many are of the view that the court’s decision was merely aimed at easing political pressure amid a spate of protests by anti-Prayut groups.
Gen Prayut’s fate will be known in about a month. By that time pro-democracy groups will re-gather, with the political mercury rising once again. Gen Prayut’s prospective downfall would deal a heavy blow to his brothers in arms, the PPRP and military-leaning allies.
Yet, some still believe that Gen Prayut will eventually escape penalty and make a comeback. At least, he remains an option for the conservative front.
In that case the Prayut factor could strengthen the opposition and pro-democracy factions who would make an all-out effort to beat him and his military connections.