Don't rush to judgement

Don't rush to judgement

After last week's explosions it's important to take an objective look at the evidence as the story unfolds rather than putting blind faith into the anti-Iran spin from Washington and Tel Aviv

Although the anti-Iran campaign is in full swing, major holes are emerging in the story spun so far.

Although facing media criticism, the Indian and Thai governments' cautious handling of the matter is putting counter-pressure on the US and Israeli governments to prove that they are not behind what may be ''false-flag'' operations.

Just as the US and Israeli governments are anxious to prove that Iran is behind the attacks, the Iranians are anxious to prove the opposite.

So far, the Iranians are losing the battle for hearts and minds being waged by the well trained and well prepared Israeli-US spin machine. But they compliment both the Thai and Indian governments for ''refusing to fall into the trap'' of joining the anti-Iran campaign and instead wait for the full facts to be established.

Although clearly convicted in the court of public opinion, the Iranians believe that a court of law may yield a different outcome.

On Friday evening the Iranian embassy organised a gathering with some key businessmen, academics and journalists, including this columnist, to provide a more comprehensive briefing beyond the 10 second sound-bites and truncated headlines.

The briefing allowed embassy officials to address wider concerns, such as those raised by Anirut Samutkochorn, chairman of the Thai-Iran Business Council. He says the fallout could be hugely damaging to the multi-million dollar rice export and tourism businesses between Thailand and Iran, with the benefits of both shifting to other Asean countries.

The Iranians say they are well aware of that, which is why their government would not have attempted anything so stupid as an assassination attempt against Israeli diplomats in Bangkok, and certainly not in other critical capitals such as New Delhi.

At the moment, the Iranian diplomats explained, Thai authorities have provided them with copies of what appear to be the Iranian passports of the suspects, along with their visa application details at the Thai embassy in Teheran, and their Iranian ID cards.

Outlining the proper procedure of such investigations, the Iranians said, they will seek to establish the documents' authenticity. If they prove to be forgeries, the suspects' true identities and nationalities will have to be ascertained. If the papers prove to be authentic, the Iranian authorities will check the suspects' backgrounds - especially to see if they are anti-government Iranians working for a ''foreign power''.

Ambassador Majid Bizmark said: ''Don't forget, even our nuclear scientists are being assassinated by Iranians working for such foreign powers.'' He says that unless the suspects' nationality is verified, even seeking consular access is not possible.

In addition to the fact that five Iranian nuclear scientists have been assassinated in Iran, allegedly by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, there is an indirect reminder of the February 2010 assassination of a Palestinian leader in Dubai, also blamed on Mossad. The Dubai hit-squad members all carried different foreign passports, which later drew diplomatic protests against Israel from a number of the governments of the countries tied to the passports.

While the Israelis and Americans cite the kind of explosives and tactics used as proof of a ''linkage'' between the Bangkok and New Delhi attacks, the Iranians allege that a closer examination of the bigger picture - such as motivation, benefits, timing and the reactions - would indicate a stronger linkage to the US and Israel.

The Iranian envoy is surprised the media docilely accepts the claims of the US and Israeli diplomats as fact.

The most important of the Iranian arguments is that these so-called attacks fit in perfectly with the anti-Iran hype being cranked up by the US and Israel to justify sanctions, and a possible military attack, on Iran.

The Iranians say this global spin campaign provides proof of both motivation and benefit. ''[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu began his accusations [against Iran] within hours of the attacks. How did he know, even before any investigations had begun?''

The ambassador also noted the reports about the incompetence of the alleged attackers. ''They were walking around with Iranian money in their pockets and being photographed with women in the bars of Pattaya?'' he asked incredulously. ''This makes no sense.''

He said the Iranians want to avoid a military attack, not invite one, but these so-called terrorist attacks have only heightened anti-Iran public opinion. Why the attackers chose New Delhi and Bangkok is a question worth asking _ the Iranians have no reason to disrupt long-standing business, diplomatic and trade relations with Thailand and India.

The ambassador said Indian and Thai authorities are aware of the broader motivational factors, and hence their desire to avoid a knee-jerk reaction. He said investigations must take all angles into account, and that the Iranian government will extend full cooperation. It has also issued an unequivocal condemnation of the attacks.

Commenting on the Iranians' view, a retired Bangkok-based ambassador familiar with both diplomatic and intelligence intrigues told this columnist that the Iranian counter-claims cannot be ruled out. He offered another critical supporting insight: The attacks all took place on the first day of Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinping's arrival in the US for a four-day official visit, and would have certainly figured in the US-Chinese talks. Bringing both China and India on board in their anti-Iran campaign is a critical part of the Israeli/US objective, he said.

The Chinese are adamant that forcing regime change in Islamic countries through sanctions and attacks must end, which is why they vetoed the UN Security Council action against Syria. The Chinese also know that if there is a regime change in Syria, regime change in Iran will be the next target.

At the briefing, Mr Anirut of the Thai-Iran Business Council also expressed concern about the commercial impact. He said rice exports from Thailand to Iran are down significantly. He relayed a rumour he'd heard that the US embassy pressured PTT to stop selling fuel to Iran Air and Mahan Air and threatened retaliatory action if it didn't.

Now, he feels that this allegedly botched ''terrorist attack'' will give the US another excuse to ratchet up support for more unilateral anti-Iran sanctions.

At the same time the Israeli security apparatus has rushed to offer advice to the Thais and will no doubt be looking at rich security contracts that will generate both a fat bottom-line for Israeli companies as well as feed valuable information about the travels of people of interest to Western intelligence agencies.

The Iranian message to the Thai press and public is clear: Look beyond the spin and ask equally tough questions to the Israeli and US governments. Both perception and reality may then take on a different dimension.

Imtiaz Muqbil

Executive editor of Travel Impact Newswire

Email : imtiaz@travel-impact-newswire.com

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