The political dust has settled, as the new Senate was successfully installed this week. Yet, looking at the components of the upper chamber, a new kind of politics still seems like a distant dream.
After a delay from the original timeline of July 3, the Election Commission (EC) eventually endorsed the 200 new senators and 100 reservists with a 5:2 vote despite several attempts to have the contest invalidated -- both by the losing candidates and the former, or caretaker, senators.
Only one winning candidate in Group 18 (media and literature) was found ineligible and disqualified, and was replaced by the No.1 substitute.
At a glance, the new Senate, selected from 20 professions, marks the end of the junta-controlled Upper House that had the provisional mandate to name a prime minister in its five-year tenure.
But the fact that a number of those with close ties to Bhumjaithai, a right-wing "blue" party, manage to dominate the Senate means the road to political reform will likely be rocky.
Among the 50 senators from Bhumjaithai strongholds, 14 represent Buri Ram province, the party's strongest base in the Northeast.
Meanwhile, about 100 of the winners are working with the party's networks, such as retired bureaucrats from party-controlled ministries like the public health, interior and transport ministries, as well as some local administrative offices.
Of the remainder, a group of 20 or so senators have aligned with the Internet Dialogue on Law Reform or iLaw and the Progressive Group, which has championed the idea of rewriting the charter and amending the lese-majeste law.
Fewer than ten are affiliated with Pheu Thai or the "red" group, while a few declared themselves as independents,. However, there are reports that they are being approached by the faction under Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, the "big brother" of former junta headman Prayut Chan-o-cha.
The Senate poll's complicated process, which included cross-voting among the 20 groups, failed to prevent mainstream parties or old powers from intervening.
In fact, they successfully pulled the strings, using state mechanisms to beat their rivals.
So there is little hope the new chamber will be instrumental in easing political difficulties, not to mention effecting political reform.
The election was riddled with problems, especially candidates' eligibility based on professions.
With such a broad interpretation and scant screening on the part of the EC, together with some problematic terms like "or so", some of the winners do not truly represent their stated profession, as in the case of health volunteers vs doctors.
As the former outnumbered the latter, some emerged as winners courtesy of a lucky draw. The same problem occurred in the media and literature group, where the masters of ceremony (MC) were contested.
Worse still, the election, which was organised in a closed system, did little to raise political awareness. Few people know the country now has a new Senate. Pressing economic problems divert public attention from politics, while the EC deliberately excluded the public from the poll, citing debatable election rules. Therefore, the public had little chance to monitor or detect any irregularities.
While the new Senate no longer has a say in naming a prime minister, it has a robust role in paving the way for any charter rewrite, as it requires one-third of its support base to kick off the process. Yet, as those with affiliations to the old powers make up a decisive group in the upper chamber, the chance of replacing the junta-sponsored supreme law is slim and without any such change, Thailand will remain trapped in old conflicts.
All eyes are now fixed on the contest for the role of Senate speaker. The key contestants are ex-4th Army chief Gen Kriangkrai Srirak, the former adviser of Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, and the former governor of Buri Ram, who is said to have links to Newin Chidchob, the de facto leader of Bhumjaithai. Meanwhile, those from the pro-democracy faction are trying to claim a deputy Speaker position.
In the long run, the country needs an independent Senate that is free of political influence. If not, the upper chamber is useless -- a huge waste of taxpayers' money. The state spent 1.2 billion baht paying the former senators' salaries, in addition to other fringe benefits.
Over the past decades, the country has seen the Senate appear in various firms: through absolute appointment in the late 1940s; then an absolute election, in accordance with the people's charter of 1997 -- touted as the country's best supreme law; and a hybrid system that saw those in the prestigious Upper House catering to politicians.
Except for the elected Senate, the others are part of the ongoing political problems as they serve and have served the old powers. The previous Senate, appointed by the now-defunct NCPO, in particular, had provisional power in accordance with the controversial 2017 charter to name a new prime minister -- namely, Gen Prayut in 2019 and Srettha Thavision late last year.
A free Senate with truly nonpartisan members would require a charter rewrite. But that presents something of a catch-22 situation, as it's likely the new Senate, reined in by the old powers, would rather stick to the status quo than seek structural change.
So, the Senate may not be ideal, but pushing to revise the Constitution to get a better upper chamber is probably too ambitious under the present circumstances.
In the short term, we have to be realistic, and seek change with regard to the voting process for the Upper House by changing the organic law on the Senate election, in order to remove loopholes. For instance, encouraging more people to run would make it harder to manipulate. We have to pressure the EC to trim the contest fee, which now costs 2,500 baht, so more people can join the race, and keep it open to public scrutiny.
More importantly, the definition of each profession must be clear to ensure that people who have solid knowledge and professional backgrounds run. For the time being, it is necessary for the public to keep monitoring the senators' performance to prevent them from going wayward.