The rise to power of a group of senators who are closely affiliated with the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT), having clinched the top positions in the Upper House, serves as a game-changer for Anutin Charnvirakul and the second-largest party in the coalition government.
Sen Mongkol Surasajja, the former governor of Buri Ram province, which is touted as the BJT's "capital" in the northeastern region, was voted in as the Senate speaker on Tuesday.
His triumph hardly came as a surprise, however. He comfortably saw off all rivals, scooping 159 votes compared to 19 for media academic Nantana Nantavaropas and 13 for former politician Premsak Piayura.
Gen Kriangkrai Srirak, a former adviser to Mr Anutin -- the BJT leader and interior minister -- eventually won the seat of first deputy Speaker of the Upper House with 150 votes.
Meanwhile, Boonsong Noisophon, a former election commissioner, was elected as the second deputy speaker with a commanding victory of 167 votes.
Contrary to the stated goal of the recent Senate election, the new upper chamber is not entirely free and independent under the present circumstances.
Instead, the prestigious institution seems to have fallen under the BJT's shadow in regard to the overwhelming number of senators with affiliations to the party -- around 150-160 of the 200-member chamber. Given such overwhelming numbers, they can form a strong bloc in the upper chamber.
The new Senate will give the BJT more bargaining power, while far-right military-leaning parties have gradually subsided. The ruling Pheu Thai Party, meanwhile, is experiencing a decline as it has largely failed to enliven the economy.
With 71 MPs in the Lower House, the BJT will emerge as the biggest party when combined with the number of senators who are effectively in its pocket, or 220-230 out of the 750-member Parliament.
The MFP comes second with 168 members (149 MPs and 19 pro-democracy senators), while Pheu Thai is third with 150 (141 MPs and 5-10 senators).
The BJT has a high chance of becoming No.1 in the next election. Lest we forget, the party is well-versed when it comes to tackling political battlefields, compared to progressive forces like the Move Forward Party (MFP).
Under this political scenario, Pheu Thai will have to face the music. On the one hand, it's struggling to regain its popularity, which plunged after it ended its partnership with the MFP in forming a government last year.
On the other hand, its de facto defeat in the Senate poll means the party's glory days of 20 years ago under former premier Thaksin Shinawatra -- when it controlled both chambers -- are well and truly over.
This is probably the reason why Thaksin chose to seek a gathering with BJT big shots over the weekend at a resort in Khao Yai.
Such a high-profile political gathering was aimed at suppressing rumours of a rift within the coalition over the topsy-turvy cannabis policy.
Both Pheu Thai and the BJT want to create the impression that they remain united on this front.
Previously, Pheu Thai ordered Health Minister Somsak Thepsutin to push hard to re-criminalise weed, whereas BJT leader Anutin made no attempt to hide his dissatisfaction with this move -- to the extent he even vowed to veto it.
It's the Senate poll victory that adds confidence on the part of the BJT to confront Pheu Thai on its weed policy change, and Pheu Thai had no choice but to make a U-turn.
Now political observers are keeping a close watch on "what's next" in the bargaining between the two parties, given the fact that the Senate has a big say in taking the government and the PM to task, or in impeaching the latter.
We will surely see some senators from the "blue bloc", a reference to the BJT, chairing House committees.
More importantly, the Senate has a key role in appointing members of independent agencies. This list would include Pol Gen Watcharapol Prasanratchakit, chief of the anti-graft commission; two members who are set to leave office by the end of September; and two charter court judges who will be gone by November.
August is a key month with two major court cases: one concerning the dissolution of the MFP on Aug 7 and the other relating to the "red card" issued against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin over his controversial appointment of Pichit Cheunban -- one of Thaksin's former lawyers -- who is deemed unqualified due to his past misdeeds, as stipulated in the 2017 charter.
As the MFP awaits its fate in the charter court, rumours are swirling that it may lose some members to the BJT. Given its abundant resources, the BJT can welcome more members from other parties. This happened before when the MFP's predecessor, the Future Forward Party, was dissolved in 2020.
The BJT is stronger than it was prior to the 2023 election. For politicians in the government camp, the BJT would give them a chance to distance themselves from military-leaning parties that have a bleak future in upcoming elections.
The BJT has shown it can translate promises into action and has seen its popularity grow in the South, the Democrat's former stronghold.
Some thought the BJT's triumph in the Senate election would propel Mr Anutin into the PM's seat if Mr Srettha is stripped of his premiership on Aug 14. But the Khao Yai get-together has sparked fresh rumours that Thaksin may have asked the BJT leader to stand aside, allowing his daughter, Paetongtarn, to replace him, with Mr Anutin reportedly willing to cater to such a request.
It is no secret that the chances of Pheu Thai pulling off a political resurrection are rather slim. As time is on his side, Mr Anutin and the BJT can afford to wait to effect a bigger comeback in the next election.