
This year's Asean Ministerial Meeting (AMM) was notable for the unity of its members, as the bloc has faced increased pressure to align with major powers. Kudos to the humble Asean chair, Deputy Prime Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, also Laos' Minister of Foreign Affairs, who emphasised at the annual meeting's outset that amid rapid and complex geopolitical and geo-economic changes, Asean must remain united and enhance its centrality.
Last week, Mr Saleumxay did well walking his Asean colleagues through the labyrinth of AMM-related meetings. He could have been more assertive occasionally, but that is the Asean way. Big applause for the chair and his team for sorting out sticky issues in the joint communique at the 11th hour.
This time, wording related to the Gaza conflict, the Myanmar crisis, and the South China Sea was problematic, causing a 48-hour delay in releasing the official statement.
In retrospect, despite their disagreements and animosities, Asean's solidarity was strongest during the Cold War when external threats were real and pressing. There was no disinformation to curry favour or hatred.
Asean was established to counter these existential threats. At its inception, the bloc was ridiculed by both friends and foes as an ineffective organisation and, worse still, as an imperialist tool.
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall three decades ago and the gradual erosion of the United States' "unipolar" moment over recent years, the global strategic landscape has changed beyond recognition. Today, external pressure primarily comes from Western allies and friends who want the bloc to take their side despite their repeated rhetoric of non-alignment.
As in the previous year, Asean has to navigate this perfect storm and remain united and strong. This is why its positions and views on global issues hold significant strategic value, as they could sway the great powers' preponderances. What has kept Asean protected has always been a keen sense of survival and pragmatism. Asean has a number of strengths often overlooked by Western countries.
Most importantly, Asean members are independent players with their own strategic autonomy. Sometimes, they may starkly differ on certain issues, such as the crises in Myanmar and Gaza, but they will unite on challenges that threaten the bloc.
Scholars and political pundits often criticise Asean as "toothless", arguing that its consensus is often based on the lowest common denominator. The secret lies in the consensus that Asean should not be harmed.
Recently, some Asean members have been reaching out and empowering their agencies, with Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam serving as case studies. All of them maintain close ties with both Western allies and rivals. Each Asean member has its preferences regarding economic ties and models. In the long run, this will broaden the bloc's network and cooperation.
In the post-Covid world, the region's largest trading partner, China, is the most significant competitor to the US and its European allies, who are pressuring regional countries to follow their lead.
Although China has mutual issues with some Asean members, they maintain close consultation and dialogue. A recent example is the on-and-off disputes in the South China Sea between China and the Philippines, where dialogue and diplomatic tools have been employed to achieve reconciliation and friendship.
In Vientiane, progress has been made in the Asean Plus Three (APT) mechanism, which includes the Asean 10, China, Japan, and South Korea. The bloc has played a crucial role in bringing the three Asian economic titans together to promote economic integration, political-security cooperation, and socio-cultural exchanges. The APT has also served as a platform for them to sit face-to-face, discuss issues, and build confidence and trust.
In 2020, the APT process contributed to the conclusion of the Asean-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which was historic given the state of relations among the trio at the time, none of which had free trade agreements with each other. However, the APT's prospects are promising if all three can further strengthen their ties and dialogues. Asean has been serving as a bridge for the APT.
In May, China, Japan, and South Korea held their first trilateral meeting in four years, signalling that the region's most dynamic economies are on the mend. This trajectory will positively impact the APT and alleviate anxieties among Asean members. Their long-delayed improved ties will enhance regional cooperation and stability in East Asia.
Moreover, even though some Asean members are not neutral on certain issues, their Asean-led platforms, such as the Asean Post Ministerial Conference (PMC), the East Asia Summit, the Asean Regional Forum (ARF), and the Asean Defence Ministerial Meeting, serve as neutral forums where friendly and rival powers can engage in dialogue and build confidence.
At the last week's Asean PMC meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to iron out their differences. High-level side meetings have become a permanent fixture of the Asean PMC and at the Asean summit level. Other Asean members also offer similar venues. In January, Mr Wang met in Bangkok with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
Progress has also been made in Vientiane. Soon, the East Asia Summit will have a unit at the Asean Secretariat to facilitate the discussion and cooperation between the Asean and EAS envoys based in Jakarta. In this connection, the ARF members also discussed ways to make the 31-year-old security forum more effective. Founded in 1994, the ARF has become an indispensable tool for promoting mutual understanding and trust regarding regional security. ARF members agreed to develop a revitalised plan by the end of this year to make the ARF more effective, as the current geopolitical outlook demands more action.
Finally, Asean has two more important toolkits: the Asean Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) and the 2019 Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP). The TAC is a lifesaver for Asean as it has preserved peace in the region. Enacted in 1976, the TAC aimed to prevent outside interference in the bloc's affairs. At that time, the founding members were in the process of nation-building and economic development. Its main principles are non-interference, non-use of force, consensus decision-making, and peaceful solutions.
Between 2010 and 2024, there has been growing interest and increased accession to the TAC. In the past 15 years, the 48-year-old peace treaty has grown to 34 signatories. By the end of the Lao chair, there will be 59 countries from all geographical regions joining the TAC.
Asean decided that non-Asean countries could accede in 1987. China was the first major power to accede in 2003, followed by India later that year. The US joined the treaty in 2009 and the EU in 2012.
This time-tested regional code of conduct has demonstrated broader appeal to the international community, which seeks to promote peace and stability in the region and beyond. Recently, Indonesia hosted the Conference of the High Contracting Parties (HCPs) to the TAC at the Asean Secretariat to reaffirm the TAC principles and urged all HCPS to fulfil their obligations under the treaty. Moreover, Asean and other HCPs are also exploring cooperation to prepare for the 50th anniversary of the signing of the TAC in 2026.
After a rusty start, the AOIP is operational, and more programmes and projects have been added. Through AOIP, Asean wants to ensure that it can shape and lead the evolving regional architecture built on Asean-led mechanism. Specifically, Asean wishes to see the geopolitical and geostrategic shifts that will bring about, and not disrupt regional peace, security and prosperity.
Eventually, with broader and increased cooperation, it will serve as a vessel for other Indo-Pacific frameworks to align with four priority areas: maritime cooperation, connectivity, sustainable development, and economic operation. The overall AOIP-related endeavours would also be institutionalised to ensure peace, stability, and prosperity.