'Olympic truce' for French political chaos?
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'Olympic truce' for French political chaos?

France is facing continuing political chaos in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron's vain and failed gambit in calling for unnecessary Legislative elections to counterbalance the expected but riveting results of the rightist surge in June's European Parliamentary voting.

Ironically, the Paris Olympics may have offered the Elysee some breathing space to sort out a percolating political crisis across the French political spectrum, at least until mid-August.

Following the unsurprising outcome of the European Union (EU) elections in June, where the rightist National Rally won massively, as did conservative parties across most of Europe, Mr Macron gambled on countering the rising right by calling for Legislative elections. He then scored a political "own goal", thinking he could outflank the National Rally. In effect, he opened the path to a narrow election victory for the far left.

The Olympics offer a respite; hold off on choosing a new prime minister and government until after the Games on Aug 11. This will give the embattled president breathing space and prevent the Republic from being embarrassed during the Olympics.

The French Fifth Republic, established in 1958 by General Charles de Gaulle, continues; the constitution established a strong presidency alongside a weak prime minister and Legislature. The previous Fourth Republic, which lasted between 1946 and 1958, was plagued by political instability, including 21 weak governments. Many citizens fear a repeat of this period of profound uncertainty.

Three political blocks vie for power in the National Assembly: the centre (the supporters of Mr Macron's Renaissance party), the Right (the National Rally of Marine Le Pen), and the New Popular Front (the extreme Left coalition), which is jockeying for power while in internal disarray.

The 577-seat Legislative Assembly remains gridlocked by the three relatively equal political groupings. The leftwing uneasy alliance of the New Popular Front (NPF) unexpectedly topped the 7 July runoff with more than 190 seats with only 26% of the vote; it remains short of a 289-seat absolute majority. Mr Macron's Renaissance party holds 164, and Le Pen's National Rally only has 143, despite gaining 37% of the popular vote!

The two largest groups in the French Legislature on both the left and the right are Eurosceptic, anti-capitalist, and largely critical of the US. The NPF comprises a political bouillabaisse of four political parties from the France Unbowed party, of Jean-Luc Melenchon, along with the Socialists, Greens and Communists. Mr Melenchon's far-left fury of France unbowed plays a socialist populist card through his rhetorical rants, and he is often dubbed the "Outrager in Chief".

Facing political cacophony from all sides, Mr Macron called for a "political truce" for the duration of the Olympic Games. "The French now want a little rest to "get back to the Games," he argued, leaving the negotiations to secure a majority to partisan backrooms. "It is up to the political leaders to work," he added.

The choice of a new prime minister and government hangs over France like a Damocles sword. The dominant NPF is jockeying to place a prime minister and form a new government; until then, the current Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, continues. Mr Melenchon's NFP programmes threaten capital flight and economic stability.

Literally hours before the grandiose Olympic opening ceremony, France's high-speed rail network was hit by a series of sabotage attacks that caused chaos and massively disrupted rail services, especially the high-speed TGV trains out of Paris. While there were fortunately no derailments or injuries, the incidents shut parts of the network until repairs were made. Security officials concede this was likely the actions of domestic militants among far-left political forces. The incidents were set to embarrass Mr Macron and France.

Despite his impressive economic and social reforms, Mr Macron still saddled the State with a massive 111% of GDP debt. Though presenting himself as an indefatigable force of energy and ideas, following the recent election faux pas, Mr Macron is now viewed as increasingly unpopular, arrogant, and out of touch.

Dangerous political undercurrents throughout French politics and society have reemerged in the aftermath of the elections. The peril to France is obvious, but the political contagion throughout Europe is troubling, namely creating an unstable government in one of the key European Union countries.

Since winning the presidency in 2017 and again in 2022, Mr Macron has portrayed himself as a brilliant politician and savvy technocrat. He often refers to himself as Jupiter. But following this crisis, he's been forced down to earth to become a pure mortal.

John J Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defence issues. He is the author of 'Divided Dynamism: The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China'.

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