Is the term "Indo-Pacific" an illusion? Or is it a defined concept, a geographical configuration, a channel for connectivity, and/or a confining strategy? Perhaps it embodies an all-embracing blend, waiting for the onlooker to dive deep into political undercurrents. It may also be time to move beyond the landscape and the seascape and even leave the dreamscape behind.
The reason for waking up is that many countries and regions are now invoking that term directly to coalesce with others in the march towards the future. Obviously, they are all shaped by some vested interests, at times egoistic, at times utilitarian, and at times Darwinian. Yet, to some, the term itself remains vague. To others, it may simply signify a containment coalition against the seepage of a major Asian power with a very established history.
The two most prominent strategies on the issue are those of the US and of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). The former's approach is based upon its Indo-Pacific Strategy 2022. In essence, it posits a free and open Indo-Pacific, propelling the prosperity and security of that configuration. It aims to drive new resources into the region, foster an economic and connectivity framework, and reinforce deterrence. It mentions various partners, particularly Asean, Japan, the Republic of Korea (South Korea), and India. It advocates substantive cooperation by the four-country alliance in the form of the Quad -- US, Australia, Japan, and India. One of the original aims was to address the Covid-19 pandemic, but it is now acting as an implied platform for cooperation on maritime and other security matters, potentially vis a vis that major Asian power.
The Asean way is slightly different. It is less about containment and more about equilibrium-building, with Asean as the (claimed) "honest broker" between the world powers contesting in the region. It posits, as usual, Asean's centrality as its raison d'etre. Emerging in 2019, the Asean Outlook for the Indo-Pacific responds to the "geopolitical and geostrategic shifts" by shaping a broadened architecture, expanding its various initiatives such as the East Asia Summit (EAS), Asean Regional Forum, and Asean defence ministers' meetings, for Indo-Pacific cooperation. It seeks to promote connectivity between the Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific not as separate but as interconnected and closely integrated regions. It underlines development and prosperity, incorporating into the context the maritime vistas for cooperation.
It voices rules-based openness and inclusivity. It harks back to the UN Charter, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Asean Charter, the Asean Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, and the EAS Principles for Mutually Beneficial Relations. Even though individual Asean members may be facing a conflict with a major power in the South China Sea, Asean as an organisation still seeks to engage in a balancing act that is unaligned.
In expanding its coverage from the Pacific to the "Indo-setting", what are the key areas for its outlook? Maritime cooperation is an essential component; this includes safety and security at sea, such as to counter piracy and transnational crimes. It advocates the implementation of sustainable development goals and measures to counter marine pollution, as well as to address sea-level rise, biodiversity and green shipping. The older agenda remains -- in particular, to adopt a code of conduct on the South China Sea.
Its accent on connectivity targets cross-links with digital portals, the private sector's role, and outreach to regional groupings such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) and Mekong sub-regional cooperation frameworks, including the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy. It is not confined to the seascape or landscape, as it reaches up to the sky, intending to establish a "Seamless Asean Sky" for more liberal air travel.
Yet, it takes two or more to tango, and there arises the question -- what do other Indo-Pacific stakeholders think of these initiatives? This is especially pertinent to the "Indo" part of the equation, which is relatively new to the strategies above. What about India and the West Asian-East African oceanic rim?
India's approach is, in a manner, multi-directional in that it has cooperated actively with the West Asian-East African region, such as on anti-piracy measures and maritime security. It also has a free trade agreement with Asean. While it is now a member of the Quad, it has to deal with its big neighbour (to the north) astutely, as there are, at times, border issues of a bilateral kind. It has enjoyed good relations with another major power which now has a war on its hands. India is also a member of Brics -- originally formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, as a counterweight to the DDB (dollarised, developed bloc). While its traditional domain was the Indian Ocean rim reaching down to Southern Africa, its more recent orientation to look eastwards (from the Indian sub-continent) to establish closer ties with Asean and the Pacific framework is organically a natural development. However, this is not unqualified, as seen by its hesitancy in joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership grouping.
On another front, the Indian Ocean Rim Association (Iora) comes to mind as a more catalytic regional actor for the future. It has nearly 25 members; they include key African states, some South and West Asian states, and some Asean countries. Global powers are also its dialogue partners. This organisation adopted the Iora Outlook for the Indo-Pacific in 2022 to engage with countries with that configuration. This would include maritime safety and security, trade and investment facilitation, fisheries management, and disaster risk management. In 2023, auspiciously, it signed a memorandum of understanding with Asean, anchored on both the Asean and Iora Outlooks.
"Blue economy" is very much at the heart of that engagement. This would cover many maritime matters, inevitably protecting the marine environment, incentivising people-to-people links, and promoting inter-intra-regional trade. This correlates aptly with the agenda of another regional grouping at the other end of the Pacific -- the Pacific Island states. The latter has now adopted its 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent -- for a peaceful, safe and secure region.
That oceanic colour may be flagged as the basis for future cooperation, with green representing environmental protection as an intergenerational concern. Beyond the dreamscape and transcending conflicts with fuller commitment, the Indo-Pacific may thus become a reality -- even as a "zone of shared opportunities."