This week, politics will be particularly intense as the Constitutional Court is set to deliver its verdict on the case brought by 40 senators seeking to remove Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from office.
The case centres on the appointment of Pichit Chuenban as minister attached to the Office of the Prime Minister, despite allegations that Mr Srettha either knew or should have known that Pichit lacked the necessary qualifications for the job, or was disqualified under the constitution.
The reading of the verdict on Wednesday will be closely watched by all parties. A guilty verdict would mean that Mr Srettha would be removed from office, necessitating the selection of a new prime minister by the House. Political experts are divided on the outcome, with some believing Mr Srettha will remain in office, while others predict his removal.
Considering the court's decision in May to accept the case against Mr Srettha, there could be a risk of an unfavourable verdict. The court voted 6 to 3 to take up the case, and at that time, four judges ruled Mr Srettha should be suspended from his duties until a verdict was reached, while five judges voted that he could carry on pending the final decision.
In the past, two prime ministers --Samak Sundaravej and Yingluck Shinawatra -- had their premierships terminated by rulings from the court. Regardless of the outcome, Thailand cannot afford to be paralysed by political upheaval, especially given the economic challenges it faces both domestically and internationally.
Domestically, the disbursement of investment budgets and public spending has been slow due to delays in this year's budget law. Moreover, domestic consumption and purchasing power remain sluggish. Although the government is striving to attract tourists and foreign investors to stimulate the economy, the results have yet to be fully realised. Externally, emerging threats pose risks, particularly a potential recession in the United States, which triggered a brief downturn in global capital markets and risk assets; some even say it was reminiscent of the "Black Monday" crash 37 years ago.
Additionally, uncertainties in international politics, such as the upcoming US elections, the Russia-Ukraine war, and conflicts in the Middle East, will inevitably affect the global economy. In light of these challenges, domestic political instability must not derail the country's economic policies and problem-solving efforts. Whether the prime minister remains in office, addressing economic issues and preparing for external economic threats and global challenges must continue without interruption.
Nonarit Bisonyabut, a research fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), said political uncertainty in Thailand is a key factor affecting the country's economic direction and policies. The long-term uncertainty around political factors continues to haunt Thailand, holding back policies that could promote sustainable development. As a result, Thailand risks becoming politically and economically backward, missing out on global development opportunities.
In the past, political vacuums, such as the absence of a prime minister or government, have often led to a "neutral gear" situation in various departments, as officials await political direction. However, given the current situation, all sectors must continue to move forward without pause. Thailand can no longer afford to let political issues impede the country's development.