Understanding Thailand's approach to evolving international orders requires examining its decisions. These decisions by recent and current governments offer a clear view of the country's diplomatic trajectory in an increasingly uncertain world.
The global power landscape is in constant flux, shaped by various geopolitical and geo-economic forces. With the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Gaza-Israel crisis, the Indo-Pacific is poised to become a potential battleground for great powers vying for extending influence.
In this context, Thailand's approach is straightforward. Bangkok has used emerging frameworks to engage with partners without bias, avoiding the risks of brinksmanship.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently organised a public discussion involving academics, media, and stakeholders to explore Thailand's enthusiasm for joining multilateral cooperative frameworks.
These include the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (Ipef) and potential partnerships with Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and the OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development).
The ministry has not stayed idle. Since early June, it has been reported that Thailand has chosen a side by wanting to join Brics, which is perceived as an anti-West group.
To understand Thailand's behaviour, it is pivotal to understand what factors or personalities were behind its moves to join Ipef, OECD, and Brics.
Thailand's decision to join Ipef in May 2022 was expected. The country was one of the five US allies in the Indo-Pacific. Bangkok was also then chairing Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec). As Apec host, it sought to maintain its relationships and participate in the US-led regional economic initiative at a crucial moment. Thailand is one of seven Asean members, comprising Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam, joining Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea, Fiji, India and the US in Ipef.
Under the Prayut government, Thailand aligned with the US strategy of supporting its allies while promoting resilient production and supply chains. The country wanted more recognition from the West, which was the main source of investment, and improved economic standards and governance. Thailand has mitigated the economic slowdown post-Covid-19 as it has already integrated into the growing supply chain network in the East Asian region.
Bangkok wants to reduce and avoid risks, and the Ipef is a good shield. Eight of its top 10 export markets are Ipef members, accounting for 54% of Thailand's total exports. Thailand was excluded from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Since its inception, Ipef has made significant progress, signing agreements on supply chains, a clean and fair economy, and an overarching agreement on Ipef. An Ipef council was recently established at the ministerial level to oversee the Ipef planning. However, the first pillar, fair and resilient trade, remains under negotiation, falling under the purview of a US trade representative.
Amid the upcoming US presidential election in November, Ipef members are anxious about the future of this framework, hoping it would not suffer the same fate as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, from which the US withdrew in 2017. No matter the November election outcome, Ipef members now recognise that maintaining US engagement in the region is crucial for both security and economic reasons.
Under the Pheu Thai-led government, Thailand officially submitted a letter of intent to begin the OECD accession process in February. Surprisingly, the country also applied for Brics membership a few months later. These moves drew criticism from local and foreign think tanks and scholars, puzzled by Thailand's simultaneous pursuit of two organisations representing opposing poles.
Shortly after the Brics application, the OECD Council agreed to proceed with Thailand's accession process, to the delight of Saranrom Palace. Truth be told, senior policymakers feared the Brics move would delay or jeopardise the country's OECD admission. However, as it turned out, the council supported Thailand's bid, given the long-standing cooperation spanning four decades. In April, former deputy prime minister and foreign minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara made a good case for Thailand's move toward the OECD at its headquarters in Paris.
Thailand's engagement with Ipef, alongside its pursuit of Brics and OECD memberships, demonstrates a strategic effort to diversify its economic partnerships and align with various political systems.
In addition, granted the timing, Thailand's decision to join Ipef was also driven by the desire to align with President Joe Biden's strategic push and maintain the US as its largest export market. Bangkok also views Ipef as a political tool for economic gains, enhancing trade and governance standards. As such, Bangkok has become part of the US "friendshoring" strategy, encouraging allies to build networks and supply chains together.
Thai politics is also unique, and Western countries are doubtful about the true nature of Thai democracy. A good case study was last week's statements from the US, EU, UK, Australia, and New Zealand, expressing concerns over the Constitutional Court's decision to dissolve the Move Forward Party for attempting to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, the lese majeste law. The EU's statement was the most succinct in reiterating the importance of allowing all legitimately elected MPs to fulfil their parliamentary mandates, regardless of party affiliation.
Meanwhile, Thailand's dual applications to Brics and the OECD present more significant challenges due to their differing ideologies and values. Bangkok-based diplomats were perplexed by the Thai strategy.
Interestingly, the push for Brics membership was made after Mr Parnpree's abrupt resignation during the cabinet reshuffle in late April. This extraordinary move was influenced by the Pheu Thai Party's inner circle, including former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. He maintained close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin when he served as the Thai prime minister from 2001 to 2006. Russia is also the current chair of Brics. During Thaksin's tenure, the two countries agreed on a visa-free policy in 2003.
The Brics decision also responded to Russia's two invitations for Thailand to attend the Brics-related meetings as observers. The newly appointed foreign minister, Maris Sangiampongsa, attended the Brics foreign ministerial meeting in Nizhny Novgorod. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the Pheu Thai Party chief, attended the Brics Parliamentary Forum in Vladivostok in June.
In retrospect, the ideal time to apply for Brics membership would have been next year, under India's chairmanship. Thailand and India have special relations in terms of geopolitics, regional cooperation, and culture. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Thailand in early September. This explains why the Srettha government has remained quiet about Brics. Government spokesman Chai Wacharonke, who had ensured the local press that Thailand would become a Brics member in October, has now become tight-lipped.
Indeed, Thailand was informed by a senior Russian foreign ministry official that there was a postponement during the Brics summit meeting in Kazan on Oct 22-24. Last August, Brics admitted five new members, which requires time for consolidation. At least 40 countries have expressed interest in joining Brics.
However, Brics may allow cooperation under a "Brics Plus" scheme for potential new members. The summit could also create a new group called the "Circle of Friends," enabling aspiring partners to share their perspectives with Brics.
In contrast to the Brics process, the OECD application was handled carefully by the Paris-based headquarters. In principle, foreign policymakers and other agencies generally vet each diplomatic decision professionally. However, as the Brics case showed, there could be some aberrations.