Low birth rates and a rapidly ageing population pose significant socio-economic challenges for Thailand. This year, the number of elderly people has surpassed 13 million, accounting for over 20% of the total population. This figure is expected to reach 30% soon. As the number of centenarians rises, fewer babies are being born.
According to the Public Administration Department, there has been a steady decline in childbirth across the country, from 770,000 in 2014 to 510,000 last year. This decline reflects a shift in attitudes among married couples, many of whom have lost the desire to have children, leading to an unfavourable demographic structure.
Several factors contribute to this trend. Economically, raising children can be very expensive, especially for parents with high expectations, such as sending their kids to good schools and paying for extra tuition or skills like piano lessons. Some couples decide not to have children.
Family structures have also changed. While extended families were once common, new families are now more compact, with fewer relatives available to help care for children. Additionally, some couples value their freedom and career opportunities, believing having children would limit these pursuits.
The current socio-economic and political climate also plays a role. Many couples perceive the country's declining livability as unsuitable for raising children. They fear that their children will suffer and may choose to avoid parenthood out of guilt.
Moreover, working-age couples face immense pressure to maintain their families in a stagnant economy. Those with young children need significant energy to cope with this pressure, leading some to believe they are not ready for parenthood.
While the causes of falling birth rates are well understood, solutions aren't straightforward. Some countries offer cash handouts to incentivise couples to have kids, but the results have been mixed. For example, Singapore gives substantial cash handouts and welfare benefits but still struggles with low birth rates. Some nations also offer extended maternity and paternity leave.
However, certain well-implemented measures may encourage couples to reconsider having children. Improving the education system to ensure all schools, including state-run ones, meet academic standards could boost confidence in affordable quality education.
Support schemes for working parents, such as standard childcare centres at workplaces or near homes, can also help. These would allow parents to work while ensuring their children are well cared for, and families could commute together after work. Child-raising skill courses for parents and older relatives can ensure proper child development in families with generation gaps.
Labour shortages can lead to economic stagnation. The combination of low birth rates and an ageing population poses a national problem, particularly with the prospective shortage of working-age individuals and the increased state budget burden due to imbalanced revenue and spending. Adjustments in labour policy, such as retaining older people in the workforce, can help. Some companies have reduced the retirement age to 55, while some state agencies have raised it from 60. The state should encourage older people to remain active through work or other activities.
The social and economic impacts of an ageing society are intertwined. An increase in the elderly population raises the demand for healthcare services, aiming to maintain life quality. Additionally, the number of bedridden elderly individuals is rising, potentially leading to labour shortages as family members may need to reduce working hours or leave their jobs to care for them.
Economically, the government faces higher costs for elderly care, and looming labour shortages could significantly hinder economic growth. Ensuring quality labour is also crucial.
Many countries face similar issues and have opened their borders to labour migration to address workforce shortages. Thailand should seriously consider such a policy. Currently, there are about three million migrant workers from neighbouring countries in Thailand, which is a short-term solution. But the number of migrant labourers is tied to economic conditions in their home countries, meaning it may fall if their economies strengthen. Proactive government measures are needed to attract more migrant labourers. These measures could include competitive wages, fringe benefits, better welfare, and upskilling programmes to develop a strong workforce for Thailand's economy.
The government should also consider the naturalisation of migrant workers, a common practice in the US, Canada, and Europe. Canada, for instance, has a strict screening system for skilled workers applying for citizenship, evaluating education, vocational skills, and family structure.
Thailand could adopt similar policies, particularly for skilled labour, to address shortages. However, it is essential to consider whether this policy should also apply to low-skilled workers, requiring comprehensive measures like upskilling programmes to ensure these workers contribute to economic development. Addressing these major issues requires multidimensional solutions and the implementation of various measures. Action must be taken now before it is too late.
Somchai Jitsuchon, PhD, is a research director (inclusive development) at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI). Policy analyses from the TDRI appear in the Bangkok Post on alternate Wednesdays.