As the Pheu Thai Party was busy forming a new cabinet, Thaksin Shinawatra re-consolidated his power in the blink of an eye. Few, if any, political observers would have imagined this phenomenon in almost two decades of colour-coded politics that saw Thaksin, for much of that time, living in self-imposed exile.
But it has happened.
The ousting of Thaksin from power in 2006 by coup gave rise to the red-shirt movement, which was suppressed in violence after prolonged and not-so-peaceful demonstrations.
The red-shirt movement resurrected and faded after another coup against the Pheu Thai-led government in 2014.
However, a young group of politicians emerged who formed the progressive Future Forward Party (later incarnated as Move Forward and then People's Party). These younger politicians vehemently challenged the military junta -- the National Council for Peace and Order -- which sought to extend the power and influence of the old establishment.
Over these years, Thailand has been trapped in serial bouts of conflicts involving groups of people who identify themselves with colours: yellow, red, orange, blue, and mixed palettes. It seems Thailand has hardly moved since the country began to experience its colour-coded rifts. For some analysts, the past two decades have been deemed "lost years".
And now, with Thaksin returning to centre stage, the country is witnessing political deja vu. Core leaders of both yellow and red factions -- several of whom served time in jail -- would have difficulty comprehending how politics has unfolded as it has today.
Thaksin is now back in the spotlight. After his 15 years in exile -- which limited him to online communication -- he excessively blathers on and on about big issues: cabinet formation, who would get a seat and who would not, the digital wallet, and the national economy.
Seeing him before media cameras has reminded many of his first days as prime minister 23 years ago. Amid it all, he always seems to be picking yellow, the colour that signifies ultra-right wing, for his shirts or neckties.
Indisputably, the return of the Shinawatra clan to power has been greenlighted by those at the top of the conservative faction out of fear of the newer players in progressive politics, the now-dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP) and the newly created People's Party.
We are witnessing a truce between Pheu Thai and the conservatives, as the latter wants to use Thaksin's service to suppress the progressive elements.
The need for unity -- similar wording used by the conservatives -- has become Thaksin's mantra.
Now, we are again seeing old enemies bury the hatchet and vie for political cake amid cabinet formation. Among them is Akanat Promphan, a key figure of the People's Democratic Reform Committee who led a campaign to overthrow the Shinawatra dynasty in 2013-2014. He is queuing up for a role in the new cabinet. What an alliance.
After a series of demonstrations and two coups, people have learned. Instead of bringing politics onto the street, which puts the country at risk of confrontation, violence, and perhaps another coup, they wait for elections, hoping for change. This has resulted in the rise of the MFP, the winner of the 2023 elections.
Unfortunately, the MFP failed to form a government as Pheu Thai left the partnership to join military-leaning parties, including Palang Pracharath, the United Thai Nation, and the Bhumjaithai parties.
Meanwhile, MFP and Pheu Thai's Srettha Thavisin have both fallen victim to what is perceived as lawfare. The charter court dissolved the MFP earlier this month on the grounds that its campaign to amend Section 112, known as the lese majeste law, was undermining the constitutional monarchy. Then Srettha was ditched a week later over the controversial cabinet minister appointment of an ex-convict jailed over a case related to the bribery of a court official.
Such perceived acts of lawfare enable the conservatives to hold a firm grip on power without having the army stage a coup, an act that comes with a high cost for the revered institution and the country.
However, such drastic rulings by the charter court trigger concern over the growing imbalance of the three branches: legislation, administration, and judiciary, which are part of the supposed checks-and-balances system.
With the use of lawfare, Paetongtarn Shinawatra is also vulnerable as there is a pending case against her over the purchase of monastic land by the Alpine Golf Club, a firm in which she is a shareholder. At the same time, Ms Paetongtarn has to screen candidates closely in her cabinet, or she might face a legal backlash like her predecessor. Meanwhile, Thaksin still faces a Section 112 case regarding his interview with foreign media in 2016.
It's unclear if Ms Paetongtarn will fall in disgrace like Thaksin, her father, and Yinguck, her aunt. By pushing his daughter to the political frontline, Thaksin must know he must tread carefully, avoiding all the old flaws that gave his enemies an excuse to depose him. On top of that, Thaksin has to continue to court the conservatives -- a position that may not be favourable for Pheu Thai.